President Donald Trump claims that Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity at Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan was “completely and totally obliterated” and that Iran “must now make peace”. He threatened that “if they do not [make peace], future attacks would be far greater and a lot easier”. Earlier in the week, Trump said he was looking for Iran’s “unconditional surrender”.
The future status of Iran’s enrichment programme will therefore continue to be a subject of contention, regardless of whether or not it still exists.
Trump has not made clear if he intends to continue with a prolonged bombing campaign, but much will depend on the nature of Iran’s retaliatory strikes against US targets – most likely its numerous military bases in the region – and whether or not any Americans are killed in these attacks.
Iran’s parliament has approved the measure, though the supreme national security council must confirm it, something “which will be done whenever necessary”, according to Esmail Kosari, a commander with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as quoted by the Iranian press.
Confirming this close alliance, Netanyahu said that the US air strikes were carried out “in full co-ordination” with the Israeli military. The US becomes an active military participant in Israel’s wars not only against Iran, but in interlinked conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. Trump has thereby plugged the US into some of the fiercest conflicts in the world.
People attend a protest against the US attack on nuclear sites, amid the Iran-Israel conflict, in Tehran (Photo: Wana News Agency)
Boastful though he has been about putting “America First”, Trump has been easily manipulated by Netanyahu into making Israel’s war aims an American priority – though few experts on the region consider this to be in America’s best interests. Moreover, those war aims stem from the most right-wing government in Israel’s history, espousing policies of ethno-nationalist supremacy at home and abroad.
Iran will undoubtedly retaliate for the US attack, but will most probably try not to get caught up in an escalatory spiral with more powerful states than itself. This has been the pattern ever since Trump ordered the assassination of the Iranian general Qasem Soleimani by an American drone at Baghdad international airport in early 2020.
But now America is openly allied with Israel in a war against it, Iran may feel that it has little option but to strike back forcefully and seriously consider closing the Strait of Hormuz.
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Trump’s vainglorious claim yesterday to have already achieved military victory, while the lauding of his close alliance with Israel, suggests that he believes Iran has no options left.
Israel has inflicted shattering losses on Hezbollah, but it, along with the Houthis in Yemen and the Shia militias in Iraq, are primarily the armed forces of the local Shia communities, rather than Iranian proxies, as they are often portrayed, and are not going to go out of business.
On the contrary, being bombed by Israel and the US is fostering a sense of national solidarity – something that can only increase as the civilian death toll rises.
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