With President Donald Trump’s order of strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, the United States -- like Israel, which encouraged him -- has brought the conflict into the open, and the consequences may not be clear for some time to come.
US intelligence had not concluded that Iran was building a nuclear bomb, with Tehran’s sensitive atomic work largely seen as a means of leverage, and Iran can be presumed to have taken precautions in anticipation of strikes.
“We should be careful not to confuse tactical success with strategic success,“ said Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
Weak point for Iran
Since the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas, which enjoys Iran’s support, Israel -- besides obliterating much of Gaza -- has decimated Lebanon’s Hezbollah, a militant group that would once reliably strike Israel as Tehran’s proxy.
Supporters of Trump’s strike argued that diplomacy was not working, with Iran standing firm on its right to enrich uranium.
“The murderous Iranian regime refused to make a deal,“ he said.
Abrupt halt to diplomacy
Most of Trump’s Republican Party and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has long seen Iran as an existential threat, attacked Obama’s deal because it allowed Tehran to enrich uranium at levels well beneath weapons grade and the key clauses had an end date.
This prompted an abrupt U-turn from Trump.
“Iran now has no incentive to trust Trump’s word or to believe that striking a compromise will advance Iran’s interests.”
Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote on social media that Trump’s strikes could either entrench the Islamic Republic or hasten its downfall.
“Its impact will be measured for decades to come.”
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