Investors didn’t exactly breathe a sigh of relief after President Trump postponed a decision on bombing Iran for two weeks. U.S. stock futures dipped about 0.2% across the board after the Juneteenth holiday, reflecting unease not just over a potential war—but over indecision as well.
The issue? Investors didn’t read the two-week delay as an opening for diplomacy that would avoid the most catastrophic outcome: a bombed Iran blocking critical petroleum shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and sending oil to $130.
Instead, they viewed it as kicking the can down the road. The fear isn’t escalation per se—it’s prolonged uncertainty, with no concrete resolution in sight.
“That means two weeks of uncertainty for financial markets, but investors are still inclined to see the Middle East conflict as a local, not a global, economic issue,” UBS chief economist Paul Donovan said in a morning note seen by Fortune.
Indeed, while shares in U.S. markets traded sideways Friday morning (as they have year-to-date), shares in Europe and parts of Asia rose (as they have year-to-date). Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and India’s Nifty 50 both jumped 1.3% on the day, while in midday trading the STOXX Europe 600 and London’s FTSE rose 0.6%—and Germany’s DAX posted a 1% rise. For the year, the S&P 500 is up 1.7% while the STOXX Europe 600 is up 5.6%.
“The Middle East tensions represent another potential adverse shock to a fairly weak economy,” Nicola Nobile, Oxford Economics’ chief Italy economist, wrote in a Friday note about the Eurozone economy. “As we have shown, even the most severe scenario for oil prices would have a manageable impact on economic activity.”
The divergence in sentiment comes down to one word: uncertainty.
Trump’s delay mirrors a broader pattern—on tariffs, TikTok (he signed another 90-day divestment extension Thursday), and now Iran. The so-called “TACO trade” (Trump Always Chickens Out) may be catchy, but for markets, it signals a lack of clarity that causes executives and investors to stall.
On Friday, the VIX—Wall Street’s fear gauge—fell 7.9% after Thursday’s spike on war talk. Still, it’s up 18% on the year.
Here’s a snapshot of the action across global markets this morning:
South Korea’s Kospi was up 1.5%. India’s Nifty 50 was up 1.3%. U.S. markets were closed yesterday for Juneteenth. S&P 500 futures were down 0.2% in premarket trading today. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 0.6% in midday trading. China’s SSE Composite was down 0.1%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 1.3%.This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
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