With the recent military escalation between Iran and Israel, the idea of closing the Strait of Hormuz has re-emerged as a major point of global tension, widely seen as Tehran’s most dangerous strategic leverage.
This comes after statements from a former commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, a military visit to the Strait before his death, and direct warnings from Iranian parliament members that “closing the Strait” is an option on the table, despite potential harm to Iran itself.
So, does Tehran truly have the capability to close it? And what if it did?
Why is the Strait of Hormuz So Crucial?
The Strait of Hormuz stands as a critical global shipping bottleneck. Approximately 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes through it, amounting to about 20 million barrels per day, or an estimated $600 billion in annual trade.
The Strait forms a crucial link between the Arabian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the broader Arabian Sea.Through its waters flow oil exports from key regional producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and Iran.Can Iran Block the Strait of Hormuz?
According to reports from the Pentagon and various American research centers, Iran possesses several methods to disrupt or even close the Strait of Hormuz. These include:
Laying naval mines: These can be deployed rapidly by speedboats and small submarines. Disrupting commercial shipping: Employing swift patrol boats to issue warning shots at vessels in transit. Directly targeting oil tankers: A tactic previously employed during the 1980s. Declaring a unilateral shipping ban: This could induce widespread panic and severely impact maritime insurance rates.Despite these capabilities, a complete closure of the Strait would likely necessitate an open naval confrontation with the United States, which maintains the strongest military presence in the Gulf region.
Who Would Be Most Affected?
Among the countries that rely most significantly on the Strait of Hormuz for maritime trade are:
Saudi Arabia: Exports over 6 million barrels of oil daily through the passage. UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait: These nations are almost entirely dependent on the Strait for their oil exports. China, India, South Korea, and Japan: These are the largest importers of oil from the Gulf region. United States: Imports approximately 700,000 barrels of oil per day via the Strait.Nations Less Affected by a Hormuz Closure
Certain countries would experience relatively less disruption if the Strait of Hormuz were closed:
Europe: This continent relies less heavily on oil transiting through the Strait. Iran itself: A significant portion of Iran’s oil sales to China passes through the Strait, making any complete closure a “self-inflicted wound” for Tehran.Exploring Alternatives
Over recent years, Gulf nations have worked to develop alternative routes to lessen their dependence on the Strait:
Saudi Arabia: Utilizes the “East-West” pipeline, capable of transporting 5 million barrels per day to the Red Sea. UAE: Operates a pipeline extending to Fujairah Port on the Gulf of Oman. Iran: Launched the “Goureh-Jask” pipeline to the Gulf of Oman, though it operates at minimal capacity, handling only 350,000 barrels.Despite these alternative pathways, they remain insufficient to cover the entirety of global oil supplies that currently pass through the Strait.
Will Iran Dare to Pull the Trigger?
Analysts have characterized Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz as a “last resort” or a “final bullet,” given the potentially catastrophic economic and political consequences:
Allies would suffer more than adversaries: China, being the largest importer of Iranian oil, would be particularly impacted. Tehran would face accusations of “energy blackmail”: This could swiftly trigger comprehensive international sanctions or even military intervention. The action would lead to an insane surge in global oil prices, potentially causing a worldwide economic recession.Strait of Hormuz: Scenarios and Expected Outcomes
Temporary Partial Closure: Price surges, heightened political tension, and room for diplomatic maneuvering.
Full Closure with Military Confrontation: Direct U.S. intervention, bombardment of Iranian naval sites, and potential expansion of the conflict.
Threat Announcement Without Execution: Psychological pressure on markets and importing nations, with no real cost incurred by Tehran.
Could the 1980s Scenario Repeat?
During the “Tanker War” between Iran and Iraq (1980–1988), navigation in the Strait of Hormuz was never fully halted. However, mines and attacks drastically inflated shipping costs.
Several vessels were hit during that period, compelling the U.S. Navy to secure maritime passage under its flag. Tragically, an Iranian passenger plane was mistakenly shot down by an American missile.
Iran’s ultimate threat: The catastrophic scenarios of a Strait of Hormuz blockade Egypt Independent.
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