The echoes are numerous. A complete disregard for international law and diplomatic alternatives. The members of Congress gung-ho about the use of American military force. The Cheneyesque claims about mushroom clouds in the United States are being repeated. The British-based Economist is telling us it has seen a bombshell intelligence dossier. Bill Kristol, who famously told us the Iraq War would only last two months back in 2003, is still, well, Bill Kristol.
Second, unlike 2003, when the CIA cooperated with the Bush administration to shape evidence around nonexistent Iraqi weapons of mass destruction to sell the war to the American public, today the assessment of the American intelligence community is that Iran “is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme leader Khomeini has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003.” This assessment, relayed to Congress this spring by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, was entirely dismissed by the president of the United States before the press in recent days. Some reports suggest Gabbard isn’t even at the table during recent discussions with the president about Iran. As controversial as she may be to some, this is still alarming given that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence was established after the intelligence failures before 9/11 to make sure that U.S. intelligence agencies were coordinated and properly represented in national security decision-making.
Today, however, there is something of a battle going on, particularly in the right-wing media space, that pits the Murdoch-owned sphere, racing to manufacture public consent for war, against independent MAGA-land. While this is different in comparison to the past, it is unclear yet whether it will impact the president’s decision-making, but it does foreshadow a possible fracturing of the MAGA coalition if Trump follows in George W. Bush’s footsteps.
The reality is, however, that there are far more ways for this to go wrong than to go the way it is being sold to Trump. The illegal strike launched by Israel against Iran already set off a war that raises the stakes and brings the U.S. increasingly closer to getting directly involved even if it doesn’t strike. But if it does strike, it sets off a series of consequences that likely lead to a long, drawn-out commitment with no clear exit strategy, again.
That process could get increasingly ugly until final collapse, setting the entire region on fire and unleashing chaos on the ground in Iran and millions more refugees around the world. There is also no way of knowing, or really controlling, what would replace the current regime if it falls. But whatever regime comes next will be unlikely to love the people who destroyed its country. This is the Pandora’s box Trump would likely open if he decides to strike. It will do irreparable damage to the region for decades.
It is also the last thing the U.S. needs right now. With China constantly rising, the U.S. should be focused on building the American economy for the coming global challenges, not signing up for decades of destruction and ballooning war debt, again. In this truly perilous moment, a fateful decision that could reset American priorities for the next century sits in the hands of the former host of The Apprentice. But this is reality, not reality TV, and there is simply too much on the line to make this mistake.
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