Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US dollar climbs as Powell highlights inflation ...Middle East

Federal Reserve rate decision: No change to interest rates, as expectedFOMC dot plot and economic projections for June 2025Powell opening statement: Current policy stance leaves us well positionedPowell Q&A: We've had goods inflation moving up a bit, we expect to see more of thatUS May housing starts 1.256m vs 1.357m expectedUS initial jobless claims 245K vs 245K estimateThe comparison of the June 2025 FOMC statement to the May 2025 statementTrump: Iran wants to come to the White House, I may do thatBOC Macklem: Hope is new trade deal will lead to tariffs being removedTrump: Powell has done a poor job and probably will not cut rates todayMore Trump: Tell Israel PM Netanyahu to keep goingIsrael is reportedly attacking Iran's Supreme Leader's underground headquarters

Gold down $22 to $3366US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 4.39%WTI crude oil flat at $74.87AUD leads, CHF lagsS&P 500 down 1 point

The market continues to play the guessing game on the Middle East and some less-hawkish comments from Trump weighed on oil but broader market moves were locked up in anticipation of the FOMC. The decision, statement and dots didn't move the market much. The dots barely remained at two cuts this year as growth expectations moved down but inflation moved up.

The bond and stock market moves were small and the overall message from Powell was that they were waiting for more clarity, which was what everyone was expecting. The swing is going to come on the data, so we will wait for more numbers but --- notably -- Powell was also confident on the economy, even as some metrics slip.

The market is going to quickly shift back to the trade war and the Middle East war as market drivers now, which is basically a guessing game on what Trump will do next. He said he hasn't made a decision on Iran.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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