Last Sunday, after the news broke, Trump raced to social media to insist that his administration had “nothing to do” with Israel’s military action and still hoped that via ongoing talks with Iran that “we can easily get a deal done…and end this bloody conflict”.
Trump always likes to keep his adversaries guessing about his true intentions. But after Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer told reporters at the summit in Canada that he had dined alongside Trump on Tuesday night and was in “no doubt” about his commitment to de-escalation, Washington’s allies must now also be dubious about the quixotic American leader’s next move.
A billboard addressed to Trump in Tel Aviv on Wednesday after Israel and Iran continued missile exchanges overnight (Photo: Gil Cohen-Magen/ AFP)As the President extemporises, it is impossible to identify any clear White House strategy in the conflict. On the one hand, Trump projects himself as itching to reduce Iran’s nuclear facilities to dust. On the other hand, he blames the Iranian authorities for failing to strike an agreement with Washington within an arbitrary, 60-day deadline laid down by the White House, cajoling them to do so now. Israel attacked on day 61, even as the American and Iranian negotiating teams were planning to meet 48 hours later.
Trump with Tucker Carlson in October. Carlson has urged the President not to join Israel in its fight against Iran (Photo: Julia Demaree Nikhinson/ AP)If Trump now fails to act, he runs the risk of being seen, yet again, as a busted flush. The claim that “Trump Always Chickens Out” (with the associated acronym “TACO”, applied to him by Wall Street traders over his brinksmanship over tariffs) would soon describe his foreign policy as well. Iran’s rulers may draw the conclusion already shared by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping that Trump’s bark conceals a lack of killer instinct to take them on.
square WORLD AnalysisOperation Ayatollah: Iran's cornered leader and how he hopes to survive
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After campaigning on a promise to end America’s “forever wars”, Trump in his inaugural address just five months ago told Americans that he would measure his own success “not only by the battles we win but also by the wars that we end, and perhaps more importantly, the wars we never get into”. If that remains his touchstone, it may indicate that a climb-down will soon be on the horizon. But for now, the President’s sabre-rattling suggests a desire to get in on the action, and worry about a forever war later.
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