Iran launched two more waves of missiles at Israel overnight, with no reported casualties, after Iranian media reported further explosions in Tehran.
Before the war, Western intelligence estimated that Iran had between 2,000 and 3,000 missiles that could reach Israel, although Israeli officials suggested it had “thousands” more.
On Friday Israeli strikes and sabotage operations are likely to have destroyed many of Iran’s missiles, although the numbers have not been disclosed.
But still, a significant number of Iranian missiles managed to breach Israel’s robust defence systems, and Israeli officials have warned that hostilities could continue for “weeks, not days”.
Israeli military officials and experts estimate that Iran still possesses hundreds — possibly up to 2,000 — of missiles capable of reaching Israel.
An Iranian Ghadr-H missle, centre, and a solid-fuel surface-to-surface Sejjil missile, on display at Baharestan Square in Tehran, with a portrait of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the background, in 2017 (Photo: Vahid Salemi/AP)But some newer missiles may have also been used, like the Hajj Qasem and Fattah-1. Both of them “have manoeuvrable re-entry vehicles” and are harder to detect, he said.
However, Tal Inbar, an Israeli space and missile expert, told The i Paper he had seen no evidence this missile had been used.
How Israel’s air defences work
Israel’s missile defence system operates across multiple tiers
Iron Beam, a laser weapon that can destroy short-range fast-moving projectiles, was designed to work alongside the Iron Dome system.
Arrow 3 offers an added layer of protection by allowing earlier interception, farther from Israeli airspace, and is particularly effective against high-altitude threats like those potentially launched from Iran.
Yet Iran managed to breach Israeli defences by overwhelming its systems with a high volume of missiles, allowing several to get through.
The aftermath of a reported missile strike fired from Iran on 17 June in the central coastal city of Herzliya, Israel (Photo: Amir Levy/Getty Images)
Iran’s level of success is not significant enough to suggest it resulted from any particular tactical or technological advancement, but rather it appears to have overwhelmed Israel’s defences through sheer volume of missile fire.
“Interceptor numbers for these systems are unknown but the fact that the US has deployed a destroyer to abet the defence and is apparently considering further deployments would suggest that there is a meaningful risk of Israeli interceptor stockpiles running low,” Kaushal said.
Iranian missiles target a site in the city of Haifa, Israel on 16 June (Photo: Ahmad Gharabli/AFP)
“As such, the outcome of the test of endurance between the two sides is not yet certain,” he said.
However, as Mr Inbar points out, this depends entirely on how many missiles the Iranians use during its attacks. “It could be an attrition war, with one, two or three missiles at any time,” he said.
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