SocGen: EUR/USD breakout raises prospect of 1.20 sooner than expected ...Middle East

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Key Points:

President Trump announced the US will notify partners of new unilateral tariffs within two weeks, reviving trade war fears ahead of the 9 July deadline.

Diminished Risk-Off Demand for USD:

The market's reluctance to buy USD in traditional risk-off conditions signals a weakening of its safe-haven appeal.

EUR/USD is closely tracking the Bloomberg Fed speak index.

Capital Flow Implications:

The shift in sentiment is fueling demand for alternatives, particularly the euro.

With EUR/USD breaking above 1.15 and holding that level in the face of geopolitical shocks, SocGen now sees 1.20 as attainable sooner than previously expected. Trade uncertainty, a softening Fed stance, and fading USD safe-haven demand form a potent mix for continued euro strength.

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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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