Israel has combined air attacks designed to suppress Iran’s air defences and then to kill key figures in Iran’s military and scientific establishment (in other words, tactics it used against Hezbollah in Lebanon) with the Ukrainian-style use of drones inside Iran operated by Mossad sabotage teams.
Iran’s response has been shaped by Israel’s earlier destruction of Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as the advent of a new Islamist regime in Syria which is hostile to Iran, meaning Iranian resupplies can no longer reach Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The only remaining part of Iran’s regional axis of resistance – the Yemeni Houthi – is too distant and underpowered to seriously threaten Israel with rockets.Since Iran’s air force is semi-obsolescent, this leaves the Revolutionary Guard’s Missile Force as the only effective response to Israel’s aggression.
Evidently, Iran’s surviving cadre of new leaders can exert command and control despite Israeli air supremacy.
In justifying a war he has sought to wage for decades, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has falsely claimed that Iran is on the verge of making 10 or so nuclear bombs, though even as recently as March, US intelligence was of the collective view that there are no signs of it doing so.
If only Donald Trump would get off the fence and deploy massive military power to finally crush the Ayatollahs. But alas, the exiled 64-year-old Shah, Reza Pahlavi, is just another pointless spare royal, hoping to return to a republic with no enthusiasm for monarchy; while the exiled Iranian resistance group Mujahadeen-e-Khalq are a murderous Islamo-Marxist sect-based in Albania.
In Netanyahu’s mind, this conjured up a nightmare scenario whereby Trump achieved a deal remarkably similar to Barack Obama’s 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and imposed five, 10 and 15-year checks, backed up by sanctions, on its nuclear activities.
He was elected to end costly Middle East interventions, and he would much prefer to rake in trillions of dollars from his princely friends in the Gulf to bailing out Israel. Speaking of whom, the Gulf autocrats are urging Trump to resume his diplomacy, not least because many of them are invested in recent rapprochements with Iran.
That would include his acolytes Tucker Carlson, Senator Rand Paul, and Marjorie Taylor Greene. Rightly, they think Trump should remind Netanyahu “who is the fucking superpower” as Bill Clinton once crisply put it.
Pictures of those killed in Israeli strikes on Iran are displayed on a street in Tehran (Photo: Wana News Agency)
So what happens next, and how might this conflict end? Or rather, how does it slide back into a permanent state of tension with periodic flare-ups?
In short, a grudging surrender with a facade of face-saving.
A second possibility is that Iran absorbs the shockwaves and fires and even gets in a few blows against Israel – whether in the form of terrorism, missiles that make it through Israel’s defence, or other means – while international pressure builds on Israel to halt the war.
Whether this would in turn lead to successful diplomacy largely depends on Trump and whatever mood he is in amidst the Canadian Rockies, where his G7 allies will try to prompt him to decisive action.
He has also had a long call with Iran’s ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has similarly offered his services to bring about a ceasefire.
While Iran may well decide to salvage something before it is too late, perhaps allowing Russia to remove their modest stocks of highly enriched fuel, its leadership cannot simply surrender the right to enrichment, which they view as a national project.
Before the Israeli strikes, Iran threatened to attack US bases in the Middle East – attacks that, if they occurred, would make it far more likely that the United States would join in the bombing, using huge penetrative munitions to get at underground facilities at Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, north-east of the Iranian city of Qom.
When they last fired missiles at US personnel in Iraq, they warned the Americans via Swiss diplomats of the timing, so that the effects on US troops were minimal. This time they might not.
The United States, for its own reasons, may also escalate the conflict. US officials of a hawkish disposition may view Israel as having done half the job already, and feel the United States can finish it, bombing Fordow with deep penetrating munitions and otherwise taking care of what is left after Israel’s initial attacks.
square MICHAEL BURLEIGH The unintended consequences of Israeli strikes on Iran
Read More
A final possibility is that the war doesn’t ever end – at least not in a formal sense. Trump has virtually said this, using the same childhood playground metaphor he has used to describe the war in Ukraine. Boys will be boys, and they just need to slug it out before shaking hands.
Amid continued back-and-forth attacks and responses, Iran may develop a clandestine nuclear programme outside of arms control commitments and international inspections, using Israeli strikes as justification. If Israel does not hit all three enriched uranium storage locations, this task will not be difficult for Tehran.
Combinations of outcomes are possible. A US-brokered ceasefire might be a first step towards a larger semi-durable nuclear deal of the kind achieved by Obama 10 years ago. Iran may concede in the short term but believe revenge is a dish best served cold, launching cyber and terrorist attacks in the months to come by way of retaliation while pumping de-sanctioned oil revenues to rebuild its crippled proxies, and thus accepting a tit-for-tat forever war in a more violent key than the one fought in the shadows for three decades.
Meanwhile, international focus will revert to Israel’s 21-month campaign in Gaza, the Iran crusade having very temporarily eclipsed the salience of that murderous conflict.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Trump’s half-cock diplomacy leaves the Middle East on the brink )
Also on site :