We are on full alert for a Kevin Durant trade.
The Phoenix Suns really began opening up negotiations for Durant once they hired new head coach Jordan Ott, and since then, a deal getting done before June 25’s NBA Draft felt inevitable. Draft week or even day was a reasonable assumption, but the reporting indicates a chance of it coming sooner.
Arizona Sports’ John Gambadoro noted the week prior to the draft as when he expects the trade to come down, while ESPN’s Shams Charania even opened the door to a possibility of the current weekend.
That means we are firmly in the stage of either broad structures of a trade package being discussed or outright proposals getting tossed around. Gambadoro’s six teams of note heading into the weekend were the Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Clippers, Miami Heat, Minnesota Timberwolves, San Antonio Spurs and Toronto Raptors. He acknowledged, like Charania, that “wild-card suitors” are out there, apparently doing their business in secret well enough for the insiders not to clock the tea.
So, what’s the holdup? What are the Suns haggling over? Let’s take a stab at it!
The swing point for each Kevin Durant trade suitor
Houston Rockets
The salaries for Houston have to be Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr., with veterans like Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks being pivotal pieces for a contender that would be accelerating that process, so those beefy salaries would be surprising inclusions.
As previously covered in this space, both players have potential but are not definitive pillars of the Rockets’ future and present cap issues on the horizon. The Suns would need more.
It would be shocking if it was Reed Sheppard, the No. 3 overall pick from the 2024 NBA Draft who is the type of talent blocked by the presence of Green. Cam Whitmore as the sprinkles on the sundae makes sense, with Houston overflowing with wings already, even after giving up two in this hypothetical deal.
The No. 10 pick is our winner, Phoenix’s own selection the Rockets infamously acquired from Brooklyn as a part of the original Durant acquisition. Phoenix’s one shot at replenishing young talent for the next 3-5 years will be fueled by a Durant trade, outside of dealing Devin Booker down the line.
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A lottery pick would be the golden ticket of sorts, while Houston’s in a position where it can afford to let it go. In the 3-for-1 deal brushed at above, Houston would already be nine-deep, with a clear reserve at each positional grouping. Still, the Rockets are getting expensive, and those rookie-scale contracts sure are nice.
It would also be wise of Phoenix to look into rerouting Green elsewhere, given the redundancy of his skill set alongside Booker. The Brooklyn Nets will be brought up again later in this exercise and they are the one organization with the cap space to take in Green’s new extension starting at $33.3 million next year. Brooklyn hits a similar snag of Green playing with Cam Thomas. Then again, they aren’t looking to win anytime soon.
With a massive hat tip to ESPN’s Bobby Marks for having each team’s draft capital sorted, Houston of course also has the Suns’ first-rounders in 2027 and 2029. It also possesses seven second-round picks, another barren part of the Suns’ collection of assets that would be a boost to get back.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves feel like the favorite with what they can offer and what the Suns want. Phoenix’s front office gives off the impression of wanting to field a fairly competitive team next year, and with that, some ready-now players will have to come back in the return for Durant.
The popular salary structure right now amongst fake trade artists is Rudy Gobert, Donte DiVincenzo and Terrence Shannon Jr. or Rob Dillingham, as well as the No. 17 selection in this year’s draft. The Gobert inclusion over Julius Randle would be odd from a Minnesota perspective, because then it would have Randle, Durant and Jaden McDaniels all to put in the starting lineup.
Perhaps Randle’s strong postseason makes him a no-go in this deal, like McDaniels presumably is. The Suns would surely love Naz Reid but the city of Minnesota would be under siege from T-Wolves fans if he was dealt. Both Randle and Reid also have player options, which would further complicate getting a deal done with them.
Getting that “or” to Dillingham is likely a factor here. Dillingham was the eighth pick last year, one the Timberwolves got by giving up their unprotected first-round pick in 2031. Their front office was rather confident in his potential and how he would play a role right away but the first-year point guard was out of the rotation almost all year. Mike Conley is also 37 years old.
Dillingham and the first-rounder this year provide the type of mix between win-now and building for the future the Suns are looking for. Minnesota can’t offer much else in terms of picks. It’s four second-rounders and that’s it.
There’s also the fact that both of these teams are in the second apron. A third and even fourth team would massively help the functionality of a Durant deal, and that’s always much harder to get together.
San Antonio Spurs
We know the deal here, like Houston. It’s Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes and Jeremy Sochan as the base of salaries. San Antonio probably still believes in Vassell, but he’s heading into Year 2 of a five-year, $145 million extension with a mega-deal on deck for De’Aaron Fox and other extensions looming.
Phoenix would win this trade if Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle was in it. That ain’t happening.
We’ll assume the bartering is not over Vassell, but rather the other picks San Antonio is willing to include.
The gem is No. 2, and this is less about the Suns themselves getting that and more about if a trade-down proposal with San Antonio and another squad can get looped into the Durant trade. Brooklyn conveniently has the eighth overall pick, as one possibility.
Beyond that, the Spurs have the 14th pick as well. That has to be in the deal, no questions asked. Phoenix should ask for more beyond that. The Spurs have a swap with the Atlanta Hawks in 2026, Atlanta’s first in 2027, some more picks later out that wouldn’t interest the Suns and 17 (!) second-round picks.
Miami Heat
Miami is a unique entrant because its base of salaries revolve around some combination of Duncan Robinson, Terry Rozier and Andrew Wiggins. Rozier and Robinson are on expiring while Wiggins has two years left (with a player option on the second). The Heat offer cap relief as its greatest strength to a deal, as opposed to the upside of the guys in Houston and San Antonio. Phoenix cannot have the benefit of saving money take up much of the value it’s getting back.
So, the Heat’s young talent and picks will have to really supercharge this thing. There is no turbo engine in that vehicle.
Nikola Jovic has been fine for Miami and Jamie Jaquez Jr. regressed after an impressive rookie season. Pelle Larsson was potentially a nice find in the second round and nothing more than that.
Kel’el Ware is the guy Miami will not want to give up and the Suns have to posture up for. During an aimless Heat season engulfed by Jimmy Butler drama, Ware was the bright spot, showing serious flashes as a unique two-way center in his rookie season after going 15th overall last year. To be clear, Ware wasn’t even on First Team All-Rookie amongst a fairly uninspiring crop of first-year contributions, so anointing him a future All-Star already would be quick.
Miami’s picks are No. 20 this year and then it can only trade future firsts in 2030 and 2032, as well as just two second-rounders.
Los Angeles Clippers
There is some slight steam percolating here because the Clippers’ construction would be made up of rotation-ready wings to supplement Booker. That’s some grouping of Norman Powell, Derrick Jones Jr., Kris Dunn and Bogdan Bogdanovic.
The big chip here is Ivica Zubac, who should have made All-NBA. The Clippers letting him go for Durant would be a bewildering twist, but he’s obviously the asset that would get this over the line.
Like Miami, it’s not a crop of picks the Suns would be all that interested in. First-rounders in 2030 and 2032, with some swap possibilities from 2030-32, plus five second-rounders. Perhaps, though, like the Miami situation, those picks could get sent to Brooklyn and that’s where someone like Nic Claxton or Cam Johnson could come into the fold.
Toronto Raptors
It is a formulaic inclusion of R.J. Barrett and Jakob Poeltl as the “gettable” salaries with some weight to ’em to make the math work.
The sprinkles here aren’t too shabby. Gradey Dick might be off the board and ditto for Ochai Agbaji. Ja’Kobe Walter went 19th overall last year and second-round selections Jonathan Mogbo and Jamal Shead showed promise too, a bunch that could help find the aforementioned mix of young and ready.
The No. 9 pick feels rather pricey given how Barrett and Poeltl don’t present too many complications for salary sheets in the future, but if Toronto really wants Durant, that’s how it would get this done.
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