A new world order is being forged – and Iran holds the key ...Middle East

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The operation has been meticulously planned and, it seems, extraordinarily successful. It appears that the Natanz – Iran’s most important uranium enrichment site – has been badly damaged, with an underground section that houses “a multi-level enrichment hall housing centrifuges, electrical rooms, and other supporting infrastructure” destroyed.

Key members of Iran’s hierarchy were deliberately targeted and killed. These include Major General Hossein Salami, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Salami, was one of the most powerful men in Iran, in charge of its most powerful military arm – and one of the people closest to the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Also confirmed dead are Major General Mohammad Bagheri, chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, the commander of the IRGC air force, Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh – along with the entire top echelon of air force officers.

The fact that Israeli intelligence knew where these individuals would be is telling, as is the fact that (according to one security official), the presence of all senior officers in the same location in an underground command centre was not a coincidence: “We did specific activities to help us understand things about them and then used that information to make them act in a specific way. We knew this would make them meet, but more importantly we knew how to keep them there.”

Iran’s Supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, responded furiously, stating: “At dawn today, the Zionist regime committed a heinous crime on our beloved soil, revealing its evil nature more than ever by targeting residential areas with its wicked and bloodstained hands. The regime must await a severe punishment.”

The attack is the latest chapter in the dramatic reshaping of the Middle East that has been unfolding since the horrific attacks of 7 October 2023. The implications of Israel’s strikes – which are ongoing – have implications for other parts of the world, and for the new world order that is being forged.

There will be relief too for shipping through the Red Sea, where the same equation will apply to the Houthis – who have relied on Tehran for weapons as well as logistical support. As with Russia, it may take time to reduce stockpiles; but this will happen – loosening another block in the web of regional Iranian alliances that have been built up over decades and which has been unpicked since the 7 October attacks. The reports of the death in the strikes of the commander of the IRGC Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, who was in charge of Iran’s regional proxies, further weakens the defensive architecture that Tehran has spent much time and money to maintain.

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Seen through a wider lens, the attacks on Iran also point to the return of inter-state warfare. It is worth reminding that just last month, India and Pakistan were involved in a confrontation that many feared would escalate into an all-out war between two nuclear powers. With Russia’s campaign against Ukraine ongoing, the US warning of an “imminent” threat to Taiwan from China, not to mention the challenges facing people in Syria and Afghanistan, then the belt of countries running from the eastern flank of Europe and the Mediterranean to the Pacific looks like the Faultline on which a new world is taking shape.

Although US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that “we are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region”, Iran has formed a different opinion, with foreign minister Araghchi retorting that “the aggressive actions of the Zionist regime against Iran could not have happened without the coordination and approval of the United States”. Therefore, he added, “the American government, as the main supporter of this regime, is also responsible for the dangerous consequences of these actions”.

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