Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass (D) is grappling with the second high-profile crisis of her tenure as immigration protests roil her city, months after devastating wildfires tore through the region.
Bass, who’s running for reelection in 2026, faced backlash over her wildfire response, including an ill-timed trip abroad as the crisis started, and her favorability ratings have taken a hit. Now, the first-term mayor is navigating demonstrations that have drawn national attention and intervention from President Trump, who went around Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) this weekend to send hundreds of National Guard troops into Los Angeles.
She’s the only big name running for her mayoral seat at this early point in the midterm cycle, and experts say her handling of the current crisis could help cement her glide path to reelection — or open the door for challengers.
“I feel like Karen Bass and her team learned at the beginning of the year that every moment from now until her reelection is crucial to get right,” said California Democratic strategist Kate Maeder.
“Bass has been battle-tested with the recent wildfire devastation. And with this, she gets another chance to show that she can lead the city through a crisis.”
Bass, a progressive who defeated wealthy Republican-turned-Democrat Rick Caruso in the 2022 mayoral race, faced some of the fiercest criticism levied at Democratic officials during the California wildfires in January. As leader of the city at the center of the disaster, she was blasted for being on a U.S. delegation trip to Ghana as fires broke out and hammered over a viral clip in which she remained silent in the face of a reporter’s questions.
The fires would go on to wreak massive damage throughout Los Angeles, and they’ve appeared to impact Bass in the polls as communities recover.
From 2024 to 2025, her net favorability flipped from a net-positive score to a net rating of negative 12, according to the annual University of California, Los Angeles, Luskin School Quality of Life Index survey in Los Angeles County released in April.
A University of California, Berkeley, Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) survey in March found 44 percent of Los Angeles voters thought Bass did a poor or very poor job responding to the wildfires, compared to 36 percent who thought she did fair or better.
And an IGS poll in May found 32 percent of voters within the city of Los Angeles viewed Bass favorably, compared to 50 percent who viewed her unfavorably and another 18 percent with no opinion. Shortly before her 2022 mayoral win, 50 percent viewed her favorably.
Now, the tensions between law enforcement, protesters and the federal government in Los Angeles pose a new problem for Bass, though some also see it as a chance at redemption.
“During the fires, Karen Bass was nowhere, and during this crisis, she's everywhere,” said California Democratic strategist Steve Maviglio.
“She has to prove that she can handle a crisis, which she was faulted on being unable to do during the fires. And so this is a real test for her,” Maviglio said, adding that the mayor has been “right on message” so far.
Last weekend, as demonstrators in the city expressed outrage over the Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration, Trump activated 2,000 National Guard members to quell the protesters. The move marked a rare instance of a president calling in the forces without agreement from the state, and Democrats cast it as an abuse of power. Meanwhile, Trump has accused Bass and Newsom of being unable to do their jobs.
The national attention on the situation makes for an added challenge, in that Bass has to counter Trump’s rhetoric about what’s happening in her city.
“She's got to come up with a narrative that shows that the resistance led by her contributed to the end of the crisis on good terms for Los Angeles,” said Fernando Guerra, founding director of the Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University. “I don’t know what that looks like, and that’s the degree of difficulty for her.”
California leaders have so far walked a balance of pushing back against Trump, supporting the right to protest and condemning violence. Bass on Tuesday stressed that the situation was under control before the White House stepped in.
“On Saturday, the President posted a message about what a great job the National Guard did in L.A. They didn’t even get here until Sunday. This entire effort is solely to cause chaos and the people of Los Angeles — and our troops — don’t deserve it,” she said on X.
“It is really a high wire test for her,” said David McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State University. “Past crises have been prickly for the mayor.”
Before becoming mayor of the country’s second-largest city, Bass served in the California state Assembly — where she was the first African American woman to be Speaker of any state legislature — and then represented California’s 33rd Congressional District in the U.S. House.
She faced a recall effort after the wildfires earlier this year, but even former rival Caruso came out against it, saying Los Angeles needed unity after the disaster.
As of right now, Bass is the only big-name candidate in the 2026 race. If that doesn’t change, she’s all but assured another mayoral term in the blue stronghold, experts said, despite her dip in favorability polling.
But California’s primary registration deadline isn’t until next spring, and prospective candidates could be taking a wait-and-see approach as she handles political hot water.
“She has a real opportunity with this crisis … to thwart any challengers, if she's able to show strength to solve the problem and to coalesce her support,” Maeder said.
Caruso, who lost to Bass by roughly 10 points in 2022, is reportedly weighing another bid for the seat, though he’s also cropped up in chatter for the open governor’s mansion because Newsom is term-limited.
“If you see a further deterioration of her support, that will lead to not only Caruso, but potential other either self-funded candidates or a state legislator or a member of Congress seriously thinking about running,” Guerra said, with the caveat that “that's a big if.”
Even after protests dissipate, though, recovery is “going to take a lot of leadership as well,” Maviglio said.
“If she proves she can handle this crisis, that’s going to give anybody who was [thinking of] running because of the fires second thoughts.”
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