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We got a bit of a clue that the US-China trade talks in London were going to have a disappointing outcome when US Treasury Secretary Bessent left to head back to DC, leaving Commerce Secretary Lutnick and Trade Representative to carry on.
Later we had an announcement from the Chinese side, and then from Lutnick and Greer. It was not bad news, but it was underwhelming.
In Geneva last month the US and China agreed to lower tariffs. After the two days of talks in London Tuesday and Wednesday Lutnick said, in his own words, that an agreement was reached on "a handshake for a framework” to "start to implement that framework" agreed to in Geneva, as long as both Trump, and Chinese President Xi approve. This is not much of an announcement, in a nutshell its to implement an already agreed upon agreement, subject to approval. Like I said, its not bad news, and it does represent some easing in tensions. But its only a rehash of old ground.
FX markets responded by selling off risk FX. EUR, AUD, NZD, GBP, CAD are all lower against the US dollar. The moves have not been large. On the other hand, Chinese equities rose.
Further compounding the losses for risk FX was the news that a US Federal appeals court has ruled that Trump’s broad tariffs can remain in effect while legal appeals continue. The appeals court said it intends to hear arguments on July 31, which gives scope for the tariffs to remain in effect at least until then.
From Japan today we had PPI for May coming in weaker than expected, slowing from April in a sign falling import costs for raw materials were easing price pressures for firms.
We await US CPI data at 0830 US Eastern time on Wednesday.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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