The Braves announced Monday that right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver underwent Tommy John surgery this morning. He’ll miss the remainder of the 2025 season and a good portion of the 2026 season as well, though an exact timetable will hinge on how his recovery proceeds. Generally, it’s best to assume an absence of at least 14 months, but every rehab varies.
Smith-Shawver’s injury puts an early end to what was originally looking like a terrific rookie campaign. Though he’d pitched in the majors in both 2023 and 2024, the 22-year-old righty narrowly retained that rookie status heading into this season. He stormed out of the gate with a 2.33 ERA, 24.8% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate in his first 38 2/3 innings, holding opponents to two or fewer runs in six of his first seven starts.
The Nationals shelled Smith-Shawver for seven runs in three innings on May 22, however, and he departed his next start on May 29 with an injury after just 2 2/3 innings. It’s never encouraging when a pitcher departs due to elbow discomfort, and all signs in the immediate aftermath proved increasingly ominous. Smith-Shawver told reporters after the game that he’d felt a “pop” in his elbow. He was placed on the 15-day IL with a strain the same day but transferred to the 60-day IL just 18 hours later. Barely 24 hours after he’d exited with a trainer, the Braves announced that Smith-Shawver had been diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament.
With Smith-Shawver joining Reynaldo Lopez on the shelf — Lopez had arthroscopic shoulder surgery in April but could potentially return late in the year — Atlanta’s pitching depth is increasingly stretched. They currently have Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder in the rotation. That’s a solid group on paper, but Strider hasn’t looked at all like himself in his first few games back from his own UCL repair.
The depth beyond that current quintet is a bit suspect. Davis Daniel and Nathan Wiles both have solid numbers with Triple-A Gwinnett and are on the 40-man roster, but they’re both relatively soft-tossing righties who were acquired in minor offseason swaps — Wiles for cash this past spring and Daniel for recent 14th-round pick Mitch Farris (after Daniel had been designated for assignment by the Angels). Hurston Waldrep, the Braves’ 2023 first-rounder and a former top prospect, has had a disastrous season in Gwinnett. Non-roster depth arms like Ian Anderson, Zach Thompson and Jose Suarez have all already cleared waivers this season and struggled to varying levels in Gwinnett. Suarez recently landed on the minor league injured list as well.
Looking longer term, Smith-Shawver will accrue major league service time and pay while he rehabs from this morning’s surgery. He’ll finish out the season with more than a year of service time but won’t be on track for Super Two status in arbitration. It’s also notable that because he was only in the minors for 16 days earlier this year when Atlanta sent him down, he won’t exhaust what would have been his final option year if he’d been sent down later in the season. He’ll retain one more minor league option year. Smith-Shawver will be on pace for arbitration eligibility in the 2027-28 offseason and for free agency in the 2030-31 offseason (though that remaining minor league option could impact either trajectory).
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