For decades, the likelihood of the UK needing to worry about such basic concerns, after finding itself at war with another major world power such as Russia or China, has been unthinkable. Thankfully, military and diplomatic experts say that, on balance it remains unlikely.
A conflict on the scale that Western leaders fear – reminiscent of the Second World War, with dictators threatening our islands, our people and our freedom – would affect and involve all of us.
The SDR had a narrow remit, dealing purely with how our forces should be armed, supported and reformed for the next two decades. But as General Sir Richard Barrons, one of its authors, highlighted last week, we also need to think about services like the NHS. We can’t risk the health service being overwhelmed if it has to deal with mass casualties arriving at hospitals after missile strikes on cities.
Preparing for these doesn’t just mean expanding hospital capacity or registering reserve doctors, as he suggested – though those moves would be important.
Weapons were a focus of the Strategic Defence Review, but experts say that supply chain resilience across all sectors must also now become a priority (Photo: Leon Neal / Getty Images)
During the pandemic, I joined the UK Government’s PPE Taskforce as its medical director. Worldwide demand for PPE was soaring while the country producing much of it – China – was gripped by lockdowns and manufacturing shutdowns. It was implementing export bans and freight was coming to a standstill in some places.
From food supplies to tech components, our supply chains run on a basis of cost savings and just-in-time efficiency, meaning that companies have been flocking to China for decades. Think of all our essential items which are directly sourced from there, or rely on the country for key parts or ingredients – or from nations that may fall under Xi Jinping’s influence.
Supplies of PPE, like this load from China being unloaded in Cardiff in 2020, became difficult to obtain during the pandemic (Photo: Matthew Horwood / Getty Images)
We’re already under attack
Wars can be won and lost through supply chains, starting with the most basic of human needs: food.
You might be surprised to learn our food self-sufficiency is better now than back then, with 46 per cent coming from overseas, and most imports come from reliable allies in Europe.
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Companies could completely lose coordination and control of supplies.
If China decided to enforce a trade embargo around Taiwan ahead of an invasion, stopping supplies of computer chips, it’s easy to imagine how we might find ourselves in a similar crisis now.
We must move from a just-in-time model of supply chains, to one of just-in-wartime.
Like most Western countries, the UK has a huge dependency on China for supplies of medicines (Photo: Costfoto / NurPhoto via Getty Images)Companies providing goods of vital importance to the country would need to win this kitemark through a transparent vetting process of who their suppliers are and where they are located.
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Read MoreRisks change over time, of course – for different products and different countries. Today’s allies and adversaries may look different tomorrow, and we shouldn’t overreact. I’m certainly not suggesting that we ban all trade with China tomorrow – of course not.
If we multiply the likelihood of this happening by the possible impact, we could rank products as green, amber or red. Amber might necessitate shoring up the supply chain through greater cyber protections, diversifying production locations, or only using approved transporters. Red would mean that serious, strategic action must be taken straight away.
I hope they would realise that this is a means of helping them. If war breaks out with a country they buy products from, they would be in crisis. The scheme could also help them prepare for other dangerous eventualities, such as another pandemic or a natural disaster.
As told to Rob Hastings
Dr Darren Mann is an ambassador for the supply chain risk management consultancy Achilles
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