Labour relief at Hamilton by-election win – but alarm bells over Reform’s rise ...Middle East

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There is a sense of surprise and relief inside Labour at the unexpected by-election result, since the SNP had been strong favourites with bookmakers to hold onto the Holyrood seat.

The three-horse race saw Labour candidate Davy Russell take 8,559 votes, ahead of the SNP’s Katy Loudon on 7,957, with Ross Lambie of Reform UK not far behind on 7,088. The Conservatives finished a distant fourth on 1,621 votes.

It will also calm nerves inside No 10, with Starmer able to tell his own anxious MPs that poor polling and public anger with the winter fuel payment cut and disability benefit reforms can be overcome.

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Reform UK’s third-place finish – finishing only narrowly behind the two main parties in Scotland – marks their arrival as serious political force north of the border.

Around one in six Labour voters had switched to Reform in Scotland, he said.

The Hamilton result also shows that Reform is eating up the Conservatives “for breakfast, lunch and dinner” in all parts of Great Britain, Prof Curtice told the BBC.

New Scottish Labour MSP Davy Russell (right) celebrates with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar and deputy Jackie Baillie after Hamilton by-election win (Photo: Jane Barlow/PA Wire)

Swinney – who had claimed the by-election was a straight fight between the SNP and Reform UK – admitted his party had not made “enough progress” since last year’s election.

But the Hamilton result will renew speculation that deputy SNP leader Kate Forbes is waiting in the wings to take over if the party does not look on track to win next year’s Holyrood election.

The rise of Farage’s party north of the border threatens to cause chaos with Holyrood’s traditional arithmetic.

This kind of result may make it hard for either the pro-independence parties (SNP and the Greens) or the established pro-union parties (Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems) to form a working majority.

A jubilant Sarwar was in no mood for such scenarios this morning, saying the Hamilton result was “first path in the road to a Scottish Labour Government”.

He added: “I’m not going to say we definitely knew we were going to win – but we always believed we could win. We’ve proven the pollsters wrong, the commentators wrong, and the bookies wrong.”

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