One last consecutive rate cut for the road by the ECB? ...Middle East

So, what else can we expect from the ECB today besides the 25 bps rate cut?

The question is, will there be an explicit hint or suggestion of a pause in July? I want to say yes but then again, the ECB has time to play with so they can hold back on that today. The July decision only falls on the fourth week of the month and policymakers will still have to weigh trade discussions between the EU and US, which supposedly has a deadline for 9 July.

As things stand, markets are pricing in just 30 bps of rate cuts after deducting the decision from today. That means just one more rate cut is priced in between the four meetings from July to December. That one rate cut is only fully priced in by the October meeting.

The market reaction will ride on her press conference for the most part as such.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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