Front office executives know it is better to fall in like with players than fall in love.
The Avs and Nuggets continue to stretch the elasticity of loyalty, determined to run it back with rosters that fell short this spring. This point was driven home Wednesday as the Avs re-signed free agent Brock Nelson to a three-year, $22.5 million deal.
The move means the Avs will feature their best opening day roster since 2022, their last championship season. And it puts general manager Chris MacFarland and coach Jared Bednar on notice.
Colorado deserves praise for taking big swings. But there are no consolation prizes for shots off the post. Another early playoff exit must come with consequences. And a slow start — say 9-15-1 — has to spell the end for Bednar, regardless of how well he is respected or his resume.
The Avs are where the Nuggets were. And we all know how that ended for Calvin Booth and Michael Malone.
They believe they have a Stanley Cup-worthy team. If this fails, everything not bolted to the floor — Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Gabe Landeskog, Val Nichushkin and MacKenzie Blackwood — must be slapped with a price tag.
President Joe Sakic made it clear last month that he wanted to keep the main pieces in place. Nelson was always part of the plan. At first glance, this seems like an overpay.
Some of us are old enough to remember when Nazem Kadri was deemed too expensive at $7 million per season.
The Nelson move, however, makes sense with context. The Avs’ most pressing need is a second-line center. Is Nelson worth $7.5 million? No. But the alternative was even more unsettling: filling the position with spare parts before making a desperate trade at the deadline, a strategy that has not worked the past few years.
Players who could have slipped into the 2C role — Calum Ritchie and Casey Mittelstadt — were shipped off last season. And did you really want Charlie Coyle in that spot?
Nelson was the second-best free-agent option behind Florida’s Sam Bennett. He had leverage with Minnesota expected to offer big dollars to bring him home. And what’s considered market value is rapidly changing with the salary cap increasing over the next three years
It is OK to not like the deal. But like the fit.
A second line of Landeskog, Nichushkin and Nelson is ridiculous if the players are healthy and available. It is the type of depth that can win another ring.
But in keeping Nelson, MacFarland penalty boxed himself into a corner. The Avs will likely need to buy out Miles Wood and deal Ross Colton when his full no-trade clause becomes limited on July 1. They have limited assets. There will be no repeat of the 2024 in-season roster upheaval.
This is it. And for MacFarland, the onus is on Martin Necas to produce. He is eligible for a new deal this summer, and could ask for $10 million-plus if he reaches 100 points playing alongside MacKinnon after next season.
There has been speculation the Avs will attempt to trade Necas, that he might be unhappy in Colorado. But lest we forget, he was the centerpiece of the Mikko Rantanen deal. Moving him means trying to get a similar haul all over again. That would put yoke on MacFarland’s face that is already smeared with a Denver omelette after Mikko’s postseason performance.
The Avs and Nuggets are similar, but not identical.
The Nuggets’ belief that they are close to usurping the Thunder and Timberwolves is delusional without change.
The Avs are better off. They held a two-goal lead over the Stars with 13 minutes remaining in Game 7, and would have likely been favored, or close to it, in all remaining matchups.
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Nelson’s return is evidence that the Avs’ posture hasn’t changed. They are all in.
Life is about moments. And this just doesn’t feel right. The Avs had their best chance in 2023 and 2024 before Nichushkin vanished. Now they are like the couple that forgot to take the heart hands photo in front of the Eiffel Tower. When they returned to recreate it, the vibe was off.
It’s the same picture. But it is different. The Avs insist it is not. That is why Nelson is back. So, the challenge is clear after three straight disappointing summers: Prove it.
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