The spring and summer months that lead into preseason training camp are all about optimism. Everyone is in the best shape of their life. Everyone has the most talented roster they’ve ever had. Everyone crushed it during spring ball and got closer to achieving their goals.
For a number of SEC teams, the goal in 2025 is to make the College Football Playoff.
Here, we’re going to dole out a dose of harsh reality to each of those contenders.
At DraftKings, 9 SEC schools have +5000 or shorter odds of winning the national championship. Odds to make the Playoff haven’t quite dropped yet at any of the major sports betting apps, so I’m basing my “contender” qualifier off of the title odds. That group includes the following: Texas, Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Florida, and South Carolina.
Here is one thing that, should it go wrong, will effectively kill a Playoff bid.
Alabama Crimson Tide
The Disaster Scenario: The run game suffers… again
Kalen DeBoer (and Ryan Grubb) is lauded for his work in the passing game at Washington in 2023. The Huskies were among the most prolific aerial attacks in the sport, ranking ninth nationally in EPA per dropback. Michael Penix Jr. and a trio of future NFL receivers were just better than the opposing defenses they faced. But the thing that can’t get overlooked — and yet often does — is the role Dillon Johnson played in UW’s success.
Washington’s lead tailback ran for 1,195 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2023. He finished second in the Pac-12 in rushing and was instrumental in UW’s win over Oregon in the Pac-12 title game to secure a Playoff berth. According to Game on Paper, Washington ranked 16th nationally in rushing success rate during the 2023 season.
If you want to be creative and explosive-minded in the pass game, you have to stay on schedule. When you can’t efficiently move the football, you don’t earn the ability to test defenses. UW ranked fifth nationally in success rate.
In 2024, Alabama ranked 32nd in overall offensive success rate and 61st in rushing success rate. The Tide were uncomfortably boom or bust, and reliant to a fault on Jalen Milroe’s ability to run. The lead tailback (Jam Miller) averaged 11 carries a game and just 4.6 yards per carry. The No. 2 back (Justice Haynes) was more efficient, but used far less frequently. The Tide ranked in the fifth percentile in line yards produced — putrid, to be perfectly frank — and in the 22nd percentile for stuff rate.
Milroe is gone, and Alabama’s 2025 quarterbacks won’t provide the same level of dynamism in the ground game. Alabama is going to have to get back to being a strong traditional run team. And that’s especially true when you consider the quarterback, whoever it might be, will be a first-time starter.
“The guys know that to win the late games and the Playoffs and things like that, there has to be a mindset and demeanor that you got to be able to run the football,” Grubb told reporters in the spring.
Miller will lead the group in 2025. He’s a former top-100 recruit who is now a senior. Alabama also has Richard Young and Louisiana transfer Dre’Lynn Washington. Grubb used a backfield rotation to start the 2023 Washington season but, once it was clear Johnson was capable of being a lead back, handed the reins to a single guy. Whatever the path for Alabama in 2025, the Tide need a more competent run game.
Florida Gators
The Disaster Scenario: Injuries continue to limit DJ Lagway
The biggest source of optimism in Gainesville, quarterback DJ Lagway, was a bystander for most of the team’s spring game back in April. DJ Lagway played 5 snaps. He handed the ball off 5 times.
A shoulder injury limited the second-year Florida passer throughout the spring. It was said to be an issue from last fall that lingered throughout the winter months. Lagway posted a video of himself throwing in a gym at the end of April to quiet the concerns around his status, but it’s fair to suggest that we just don’t really know how much of an issue this all is until Florida starts prepping for its Week 1 opponent.
According to ESPN, Lagway missed “some” practice time during the 2024 season because of the shoulder. It was a high school issue that bled into his first collegiate fall. He also missed a game in November because of a hamstring strain.
Lagway could be completely fine. Alternatively, being limited during your first offseason as the guy can hinder development and chemistry-building. Quarterback development isn’t always clean or linear, and these are the types of things that can delay a takeoff.
When Florida transformed over the back half of the 2024 season, it was because Lagway revitalized the offense. According to PFF, no SEC quarterback — qualified or otherwise — had a better passer grade on throws of at least 20 yards. Lagway had a 95.6 grade on downfield throws. He completed 53% of his pass attempts beyond 20 yards while producing 5 touchdowns with only 1 turnover-worthy play.
Lagway has to develop the short and intermediate parts of his game, but his ability to make game-changing plays was undeniable from the moment he first stepped on the field. Given the schedule Florida faces in 2025, the Gators’ best hope to make the CFP is that Lagway simply becomes one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He has to be on the field in order to do that.
Lingering shoulder pain or further injury concerns would be a major bummer for Billy Napier, for Florida fans, and for college football fans in general.
Georgia Bulldogs
The Disaster Scenario: The offensive line underwhelms… again
Kirby Smart hasn’t had a 1,000-yard running back since 2019. His quarterback last season was pressured on more than 100 dropbacks and had disastrous numbers during those plays. Georgia ranked in the 32nd percentile for havoc rate allowed, in the 32nd percentile for stuff rate, and in the 54th percentile for line yards produced.
Carson Beck’s inconsistent season was a problem. Georgia’s inability to catch the football was a problem. The offensive line’s collective season was a symptom of the disappointing year.
Yes, Georgia still won the SEC title. Yes, Georgia still made the CFP. But the Dawgs went 1-and-done in the Playoff. The Notre Dame defense sacked Gunner Stockton 4 times and held the Dawgs to 62 net rushing yards on 29 attempts.
In 2025, Georgia will turn to Stockton full-time. He’ll be QB1 for the first time in his career, and he’ll be working with a revamped group of skill players. Georgia has talent for Stockton to throw to, and options for him to hand the ball off to. It remains to be seen if it has elite options to block for him.
Georgia is replacing 4 starters on the offensive line from last year’s team. Georgia has made the line a priority in recruiting in recent years — signing 5 linemen in 2023, 8 linemen in 2024, and then 5 more in 2025 — but it’s time for some of those young guys to step up.
So many will point to Stockton as a major question mark for Georgia in 2025, and that’s fair, but I thought Stockton looked good in the CFP quarterfinal loss to Notre Dame. Yes, he had a crucial turnover at the end of the first half, but I didn’t walk away from the game thinking Georgia lost because of Stockton.
But it’s also different approaching a singular game as the starter versus an entire season. And every defense Georgia will face in 2025 knows Stockton will be the guy. He won’t catch teams off-guard with his legs, like he did in the SEC title game against Texas. Keeping him on schedule and keeping him protected are paramount.
LSU Tigers
The Disaster Scenario: *gestures to Brian Kelly*
Here’s what I wrote about LSU and head coach Brian Kelly back in January when I took the under on the Tigers’ win total:
A question I’m left wondering following the national championship game: If not for the existence of a $50 million buyout, would Brian Kelly be guaranteed to make it through a 2025 season that didn’t end with a Playoff berth? What if LSU goes 7-5? Is Kelly still around? Brian Kelly had a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback who has gone on to author maybe the greatest rookie season in NFL history and 2 wide receivers who became instant-impact weapons in the NFL and he ended the year in the ReliaQuest Bowl. LSU dipped to 8 wins during the 2024 regular season. It was undone by Texas A&M after the Aggies swapped a statue for a runner at quarterback. It was blasted by Alabama. It lost to Florida. It lost to a mediocre USC team. The overtime win over Ole Miss or the referee-aided win over South Carolina are all that stands between us and a conversation about Kelly’s future already. Three years in, does anyone really know if Kelly is made for this?
I’ve been critical of Kelly. Maybe overly so. But I don’t think anyone would deny that if LSU opens the season with a loss to Clemson — what would be a fourth consecutive season-opening loss under Kelly — things will get tense in Baton Rouge.
It is a title-or-bust season for LSU in 2025. After the Tigers brought in the top-ranked transfer class and added a couple of instant-impact freshmen, the Tigers look to have one of the most talented rosters in the sport. There are no excuses.
But talent has rarely been LSU’s problem under Kelly. They’ve been out-coached or beaten by a more disciplined team.
If LSU starts slow and buzz kicks up about Kelly’s job, things will get weird. If LSU drops a couple of games and finds itself on the CFP bubble, Kelly will be popular on sports talkshows. Buyouts just don’t really matter anymore, and if the season devolves into “Brian Kelly hotseat” talk, LSU will be worse for it.
I suppose I’m not helping by belaboring the point already, months before the season, but I do think this is a real concern for LSU in 2025. The standard is outrageously high. And LSU doesn’t have a ton of on-paper weaknesses.
Ole Miss Rebels
The Disaster Scenario: Austin Simmons isn’t ready
Ole Miss ended the 2024 season second in Bill Connelly’s SP+. In the post-spring 2025 ratings, Ole Miss sat 11th. The Rebels lose a ton of production from the team that won 10 games, but coach Lane Kiffin has already proven capable of putting elite rosters together via the portal. And Ole Miss signed another top-5 portal class this offseason.
I think the floor is still pretty high in Oxford. But making the move from Jaxson Dart to Austin Simmons at quarterback is a significant change, and one that will determine whether this Ole Miss team remains in the conversation for a Playoff bid in 2025.
It’s hard to understate how impressive Simmons was when he came in cold against Georgia last season and engineered a touchdown drive. But it’s also important to remember that was a quick-change setting for the defense and it was one drive. Simmons threw 32 passes last season, completing 59% of them.
Simmons was a 4-star recruit in 2023, but he wasn’t viewed as a “can’t miss” prospect. He was outside the Top 247 and spent his first season in the program off the two-deep.
The receiver room has been completely remade. The running backs and tight ends will be led by different players in 2025. And just 2 of the 8 offensive linemen who played at least 100 snaps last season return.
Ole Miss should be pretty stout on defense again under Pete Golding. But the offense has a wide range of outcomes. That’s a lot of change to ask a young passer to navigate.
South Carolina
The Disaster Scenario: The NCAA ties one arm behind Shane Beamer’s back
Rahsul Faison is still, at the time of writing this, waiting to hear back on his waiver request for the 2025 season.
South Carolina doesn’t know if the player it recruited out of the transfer portal to be RB1 will be eligible for the new season.
That season starts in a little less than 3 months.
The Gamecocks should be pretty stout again on defense. They have a bright, rising playmaker at quarterback. But they need to find a replacement for Rocket Sanders, who ran for 881 yards and 11 scores last season. And, truth be told, they probably need a little more efficiency from the run game.
With LaNorris Sellers such an important part of what South Carolina does and hopes to accomplish in 2025, keeping him healthy is one of the top priorities for Shane Beamer. That means protecting him better, but it also means finding a reliable run game post-Sanders to limit how much Sellers has to do with his legs.
Faison ran for 1,109 yards at 5.6 per carry a year ago. If he’s cleared by the NCAA for another year of eligibility, he’ll be the top back in the SC backfield and he’ll be one of the top backs in the SEC. If the NCAA continues to drag its feet, South Carolina will have to make some tough decisions as it prepares for the new season.
Limiting Faison’s reps will make the integration process longer if and when he does get cleared. Limiting everyone else’s reps in the hope of having Faison available to start the season will make it tougher to get the other guys rolling. Without Faison, South Carolina will be turning to either Oscar Adaway or Jawarn Howell. Adaway averaged only 3.8 yards per carry last season after transferring from North Texas. Howell is a young player without much experience.
Tennessee Volunteers
The Disaster Scenario: Joey Aguilar misses Dylan Sampson
In 2024, Dylan Sampson engineered one of the greatest rushing seasons in Tennessee history. He averaged nearly 6 yards a carry while going for 1,491 yards and 22 touchdowns. With an elite defense (fourth in opponent-adjusted EPA per play allowed) and one of the nation’s best tailbacks, Tennessee leaned on the sure things and didn’t ask its quarterback to do much.
My worry for Josh Heupel is that transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar would have been much better suited for last year’s environment than he will be for this 2025 team.
Sampson is gone. Key pieces of an elite defense are gone or injured. The receiver room was remade, too.
Aguilar showed major promise in 2023, when he emerged from the bench to throw for 3,737 yards and 33 touchdowns at Appalachian State. He didn’t take a meaningful step in 2024. His completion percentage dropped from 63 to 56%. His yards-per-attempt clip dropped by nearly half a yard. He threw 10 fewer touchdowns and 4 more interceptions than the year prior.
The 6-3 passer is a gunslinger. While he had fewer interceptions in 2023, he just got away with more. Over the last 2 seasons, Aguilar has 50 big-time throws and 51 turnover-worthy plays, according to PFF. His 5.4% turnover-worthy play rate was one of the 10 highest marks in the FBS last season. He had 6 games with multiple picks, including 4 in a 10-point loss to Louisiana.
Unless the Vols have another Sampson-like season waiting in the wings from the running back room, Aguilar has to elevate the offense. He cannot turn the football over, and his last 2 seasons suggest that’s constantly a danger.
Texas Longhorns
The Disaster Scenario: Arch Manning has no help
While we don’t know what Arch Manning’s ceiling is, we can probably assume he won’t be bad with a degree of certainty. Manning has elite tools and an elite pedigree. He’s had multiple years to sit and learn the Steve Sarkisian system. Now he gets his chance to run the show.
My question for Texas is less about how great Manning is and more about how effective the new guys around him will be.
Former 5-star Ryan Wingo will be WR1. Five-star freshman Kaliq Lockett is going to have a role. Veteran DeAndre Moore will have a role.
Jack Endries comes over to replace Gunnar Helm at tight end. Sarkisian has to feel optimistic about the remade group of pass-catchers, but Endries is really the only one who has proven capable in the role he’ll have. Texas is replacing Matthew Golden and Isaiah Bond with guys who just haven’t been in these kinds of spots yet. And the Longhorns, with a new quarterback, new tackles, and new receivers, are the early favorites to win the SEC.
Texas projects to have a strong backfield. Quintrevion Wisner and CJ Baxter will be one of the top 1-2 punches at the position anywhere in the country, assuming health. That should help.
Manning needs protection, and he’ll be working behind an offensive line with 4 new starters. Manning needs reliability from his pass-catchers, and he’ll be throwing to a group of guys getting used to new roles.
Texas is another team with very few on-paper holes. Frankly, Sarkisian’s group looks loaded going into 2025. If the ‘Horns missed the CFP, a whole host of things went wrong. Those are more likely on offense.
Texas A&M Aggies
The Disaster Scenario: The defensive front can’t replace what it lost
The Aggies have a ton of intriguing pieces in Year 2 under Mike Elko. A healthy Le’Veon Moss is a beast. And A&M can turn to Rueben Owens whenever it needs to. Marcel Reed, a dual-threat quarterback who gets an entire offseason to train as the starter, makes the run game that much more dangerous. And all 5 starters return on the offensive line to make things even better.
A step from Reed in his development as a passer would be ideal, but we’ve seen Elko craft a winner around a punishing ground game.
A&M’s ceiling in 2025 will be determined by how effectively the defense replaces key pieces from a front that was one of the most effective in the game last season. Shemar Stewart, Nic Scourton, and Shemar Turner helped A&M rank in the 90th percentile or better in havoc rate, stuff rate, and line yards allowed.
No one got much push against the veteran-laden A&M defensive front. And yet the Aggies still fell apart in the secondary down the stretch. Per Game on Paper, the Aggies ranked 43rd in EPA per dropback allowed for the entire season. They gave up 405 passing yards to LSU, then 301 to Auburn a few weeks later, and then 295 to USC to end the year. South Carolina completed 13 passes but those 13 passes went for 244 yards and 2 scores in a 44-20 win over A&M.
The secondary was bad.
If A&M doesn’t have the same kind of pass-rushing proficiency in 2025, even an improved secondary will suffer for it.
One thing that could derail a Playoff run for each of the SEC’s top contenders Saturday Down South.
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