The Oklahoma City Thunder are overwhelming favorites over the Indiana Pacers in the 2025 NBA Finals. But what key factors will determine their series?
Led by a superstar point guard whose incredible offensive skill helped forge an identity of selflessness, this team had an impressive run to the NBA Finals. It’s impressive that a team can play that fast and still not make mistakes. Don’t forget the contributions from the big wing who is a perfect complementary star or the head coach who has proven to be a great in-game decision-maker.
We’re talking, of course, about the Oklahoma City Thunder. Or possibly the Indiana Pacers.
The Seattle Supersonics won the 1979 NBA title, but the Thunder haven’t been champs since the relocation to Oklahoma City in 2008.The Thunder have faced different challenges this postseason and the final one is against the team most suited to play their brand of basketball. In some ways, this will be good for them, as the Pacers won’t force them into a style they don’t want to play.
But if the flow of the game goes as expected, there are areas in which the Pacers can take advantage. The Thunder are an incredible team, but no team is infallible. Just ask the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors, who came up short in the Finals after delivering the most wins in an NBA regular season.
If the Pacers want to conclude their incredible playoff run with the first championship in franchise history, they’ll need certain aspects of the matchup to go their way.
Here are the most important questions about the NBA Finals.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers
Regular-Season Record: Thunder 68-14/Pacers 50-32 Regular-Season Series: Thunder 2-0 Offensive TRACR: Thunder No. 2/Pacers No. 7 Defensive TRACR: Thunder No. 1/Pacers No. 11 Overall TRACR Rank: Thunder No. 1/Pacers No. 11 NBA Finals Schedule (all times ET, games on ABC): Game 1: Pacers at Thunder (June 5, 8:30 p.m.); Game 2: Pacers at Thunder (June 8, 8 p.m.); Game 3: Thunder at Pacers (June 11, 8:30 p.m.); Game 4: Thunder at Pacers (June 13, 8:30 p.m.); Game 5 (if necessary): Pacers at Thunder (June 16, 8:30 p.m.); Game 6 (if necessary): Thunder at Pacers (June 19, 8:30 p.m.); Game 7 (if necessary): Pacers at Thunder (June 22, 8 p.m.) Projected Winner (Win Probability): Thunder 89.4%Can the Thunder Force the Pacers Into Turnovers?
The Thunder were the best team in the regular season for several reasons, but their biggest strength was turnover differential. They committed the fewest turnovers this season and forced their opponents into the most.
The playoffs haven’t been any different. The Thunder are forcing the most turnovers per game and scoring the most points off turnovers in the playoffs.
The extra possessions add up, and forcing turnovers has the added bonus of easy looks in transition. At their best, the Thunder are an avalanche, forcing turnovers that lead to baskets several times a quarter until the opposing team is buried.
It’ll be a case of the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object when the opportunistic Thunder defense meets the steady hand of Tyrese Haliburton. If anyone can sustain the pressure the Thunder inflict on opponents while still prodding for advantages, it’s him.
Haliburton is the best offensive engine in the league at protecting the basketball. Among players who averaged at least 15.0 points per game this season, he had the best assist-to-turnover ratio by far.
There were 21 qualified players with 6.0 assists per game, and only San Antonio Spurs guard Chris Paul and Haliburton averaged under two turnovers per game. Paul plays an incredibly slow game while he manipulates the chessboard. Haliburton holds on to the ball while operating the third-fastest team in the league in terms of pace. It’s like he’s crossing a highway on foot without getting hit by any passing cars.
The Pacers turned it over 24 times combined in two games against the OKC this season, and those 12.0 turnovers per game against the Thunder were the second fewest of any opponent. A lot of this comes down to Haliburton, who had just one turnover in the two games.
But the Thunder did the next-best thing against Haliburton by taking him out of the game offensively in the first matchup. Teams haven’t forced consistent turnovers from the 6-foot-5 guard this season, but he’s been susceptible to long stretches of not putting his imprint on a game. In the first meeting against the Thunder, he scored only four points on 2-of-6 shooting. He’s also had three games this postseason when he took eight or fewer shots and three games of 10 or fewer points.
In the second matchup against the Thunder, Haliburton had a nice scoring game with 18 points on 12 shots, but he only had three assists. The Pacers need him to stay engaged as a scorer and playmaker for as long as he’s on the court. Haliburton is a great teammate who makes the right play, and he’ll need to walk a fine line between taking what the defense gives him and not letting the defense dictate his every move. It’s a tough ask against the elite Thunder defense, but tough asks are a part of the NBA Finals.
The Thunder will likely start with Lu Dort guarding Haliburton, but he’ll see the twin nightmares Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace when they come off the bench as well. The Thunder will send waves at Haliburton. If they can get the ball out of his hands early in possessions and deny him the opportunity to get it back, they’ll have more chances at the kind of backbreaking turnovers that define their defense.
But if Haliburton is able to be a factor in the vast majority of possessions, he’s uniquely qualified to give the Thunder defense trouble.
Can the Pacers Make Things Uncomfortable for SGA?
The Pacers will have to keep their offense humming because the matchup on the other side of the floor could cause them some problems.
The Thunder aren’t like the New York Knicks – they don’t rely on mismatches to make their offense run. Obviously, when there is a mismatch on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, he can destroy it. But the Thunder stick to running their stuff and moving the ball, just like the Pacers do.
That gave the Pacers problems in the two regular-season matchups: the Thunder shot 48.7% from the field and 41.1% on 3-pointers. They attempted 23.5 free throws per game (compared to their average of 20.4 in the regular season).
OKC looked really comfortable offensively against the Pacers. In the first game, the Thunder turned the ball over just three times – the fewest for any team in a game this season.
As you might expect, it all starts with the NBA MVP. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 39.0 points on 55.6% shooting, 8.0 assists and 7.0 rebounds in the two games. That included one of his best efforts of the season in the first game: 45 points on 22 shots from the field with just one turnover.
Like Haliburton, SGA had just one turnover in the two games combined. He also attempted 11.5 free throws per game.
Gilgeous-Alexander got to his spots with relative ease in these games, and that means game over before he even shoots the ball. He’s so slippery and reliable from the midrange and the lane, he functions like a dominant post player. When Hall of Famer Shaquille O’Neal turned with the ball in the low post with a defender on his back, the possession was already won.
The Pacers need to treat Gilgeous-Alexander the same way. Andrew Nembhard had one of the best defensive games of his career in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals against Knicks guard Jalen Brunson. He embraced Brunson’s physicality and returned it in kind without fouling.
Brunson and Gilgeous-Alexander are different players, but they have to be guarded the same way. The 6-4 Nembhard will have to be at his very best against SGA. Thomas Bryant, the Pacers’ Game 6 hero, looked lost defensively in the 22 minutes he played against the Thunder this season. He’ll have to be much better to stay on the floor. Myles Turner will have to show how far he’s come at defensive decision-making.
It takes more than one player at his best to guard the MVP.
Which Big Wing Will Swing the NBA Finals?
We already know Pacers power forward Pascal Siakam can be the second star on a championship team as he did it for the 2018-19 Toronto Raptors. Thunder small forward Jalen Williams struggled against the Denver Nuggets, but proved he’s the perfect complement to Gilgeous-Alexander against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The focus will be on Haliburton vs. SGA, but this seems like the matchup the Pacers have to win this series. Williams struggled a bit shooting the ball against the Pacers this season, and they need that to continue. When he’s at his best, the Thunder have two multi-faceted offensive weapons surrounded by perfect role players. When he’s not performing well, the Thunder can feel light on playmaking around Gilgeous-Alexander, and the Pacers can take advantage of that.
Siakam was named the MVP of the Eastern Conference finals and scored 30+ points in three of his six games. The Thunder tried to guard him with Isaiah Hartenstein to open both regular-season matchups, but that was without Chet Holmgren, who missed the games.
If the Thunder try the Hartenstein matchup again, Siakam should be able to generate some great looks against him as he did in the regular season. But he’ll likely see players more accomplished at guarding on the perimeter, which will sometimes include Williams in key spots.
The Thunder used Caruso and Wallace effectively against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference finals because they could both switch the Anthony Edwards-Julius Randle pick-and-roll to great effect. Randle had an up-and-down series as a result and a tough time getting anything going when his 3-point shot wasn’t falling.
Siakam is more skilled on the perimeter than Randle and much less turnover-prone. If the Thunder succeed in pushing possessions away from Haliburton, Siakam will need to consistently create against elite defenders. He’s had some legendary playoff performances, and he’ll need to have more.
How Many Players Can Rick Carlisle Trust?
The lack of trustworthy bench options was a crucial part of the Nuggets’ conference semifinal-round series loss to the Thunder. With Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon playing through injury and only seven players averaging even 10 minutes per game in the postseason, the Nuggets ran out of steam.
The Timberwolves trusted their bench more and had some good moments against OKC. Nickeil Alexander-Walker had three excellent games in the middle of the series sandwiched by two duds. Donte DiVincenzo shot the ball well from 3. But Naz Reid struggled with his shot at times and often succumbed to the pressure of the Thunder defense.
The Pacers are closer to the Timberwolves than the Nuggets in terms of trust in their bench. Power forward Obi Toppin will inject some energy into the Pacers’ offense and get them some much-needed easy transition points with how he runs the floor. Point guard T.J. McConnell is relentless on both ends. (Sometimes he can be a bit too involved, especially when Haliburton is out there with him, but his ability to get into the lane can generate good looks on possessions that seem dead.) Thomas Bryant will likely get the first crack at backup center, but will need to overcome his defensive issues against OKC in the regular season.
Ben Sheppard is the kind of wing teams need off the bench to match the Thunder. Jarace Walker could be a nice wrinkle for Pacers coach Rick Carlisle as well, but he was on crutches after Game 6 against the Knicks.
The Thunder will roll with Caruso, Wallace, whichever other backup perimeter player has the hot hand and possibly big Jaylin Williams. Both teams have bench players who know their role and retain the team identity while on the floor. The Pacers will need offensive contributions from someone off the bench other than Toppin, and the Thunder need their bench players to hit catch-and-shoot 3s.
Whichever bench follows the script will provide the bigger advantage.
NBA Finals: Where Do the Pacers Find the Math Advantage?
It’s hard to beat the Thunder without generating an advantage in possessions or 3-pointers.
The Thunder already have teams at a deficit due to their turnover advantage. The Pacers don’t shoot a lot of 3s and were among the worst offensive rebounding teams in the league this season.
For all the talk about Gilgeous-Alexander’s free throws, the Thunder didn’t shoot a lot from the foul line as a team. They were 26th in the NBA in free throws per game, while the Pacers were 18th. If the Pacers can keep SGA off the line, they have a chance to win the free throw battle, which would be a crucial advantage in finding easy points.
Ultimately, the Pacers aren’t built to try to impose their style on the Thunder like the Nuggets were earlier this postseason. They’ll have to beat the Thunder at their own game, which is really hard to do.
Indiana has been defying odds all postseason. That will have to continue in one more series for the Pacers to claim their first NBA title.
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