PHOENIX — The Arizona Diamondbacks find themselves in a similar spot as they were at this stage last season entering June, and yet, the circumstances are different.
In both cases, the Diamondbacks entered the season with postseason expectations, setting franchise records for payroll to build on their 2023 World Series run.
The 2024 D-backs lost five games in a row to end May and fell to a season-worst 25-32, their version of rock bottom.
They responded with a four-game winning streak but did not get back over .500 until July 12, at which point the D-backs became arguably the hottest team in baseball. Starting on July 10, the Diamondbacks went 30-10 over their next 40 games.
This year, the D-backs came into June below .500 again. Arizona lost its ninth out of 10th game to fall to a similar 27-31 before June 1, when they snapped a four-game skid Sunday against Washington.
A major circumstantial difference is that there are no waves of reinforcements coming this time. Last year, the team was incomplete and looking to stay competitive enough to set up a run when healthier. There are fewer excuses and more regrets this time around.
“ Last year, we were fighting through some injuries,” manager Torey Lovullo said on Friday.
“I think three or four of the five starters were injured. We had our starting shortstop banged up and just about to come off the IL. We were probably overachieving and doing our absolute best to just stay around .500. This year, I think it’s a little bit different. I think we’re underachieving and we’ve gotta play better.”
Within the first four weeks of 2024, center fielder Alek Thomas, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo, starters Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez and closer Paul Sewald were on the injured list for extended time.
Ten pitchers made starts over the first two months, and Zac Gallen was about to miss a month with a hamstring issue to add more turbulence. Factor in early slumps for Corbin Carroll and Eugenio Suarez — plus a lousy season from Jordan Montgomery — and it was a struggle to maintain a high standard over the first two months.
Their records in June, July and August went 16-11, 17-8 and 18-9, respectively, to become dangerous.
This year, expectations were raised by the blockbuster addition of ace Corbin Burnes to bolster one of the game’s best rotations on paper. The offense came off a season in which it led MLB in runs after its hot second half, and the bullpen appeared to be in better shape than it had been in years.
There has been some injury adversity, to be fair, namely in the bullpen with Kevin Ginkel, A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez spending time on the IL. Ketel Marte missed nearly a month, too.
But the overall sloppiness, blown leads and lack of winning streaks from a team with as much talent as the Diamondbacks possess has been a cause for frustration.
The D-backs have 20 blown leads this season, more than half of their 39 from a year ago despite playing just over a third of the season. The losses have been more memorable than the wins.
That’s not to say they can’t get hot, as this team from a talent perspective still stacks up well against many of their National League contender counterparts. But the flow of this season has been off, and even in what should have been a moment of levity with Sunday’s win, Burnes walking off the field with elbow discomfort throws in another concern.
Arizona’s schedule gets much easier over the next three months before a tough September slate, but it has to take advantage of that opportunity better than the latest 2-4 homestand.
“We all have that experience already,” Suarez said on Sunday. “We have to come here, play good baseball, not think too much about what’s gonna happen or try to chase results, try to chase wins. The game is not like that. … You gotta trust in your team. Trust each other, support each other and play the game in the right way.”
National League has been stronger
Another slight difference is the current state of the NL:
NL West: 1. Dodgers 36-23 2. Padres 33-24 3. Giants 33-26 4. D-backs 28-31
NL Wild Card: 1. Phillies 36-23 2. Padres 33-24 T3. Giants 33-26 T3. Cardinals 33-26
5. Brewers 32-28 6. Reds 29-31 7. Nationals 28-31 8 D-backs 28-31
The Dodgers led the Diamondbacks by 10 games on May 31, 2024. So, that’s not too different, plus the D-backs have played their division tightly this year so far.
In the NL Wild Card race, however, Arizona was only 3.5 games back but needed to jump six teams for the third spot entering last June.
The Diamondbacks are now five games back with five teams to jump for the final Wild Card spot.
The NL has been deeper this year with eight teams above .500 entering June compared to five. The league was more top heavy at this stage last year, as the third NL Wild Card team was the 29-29 Giants. The New York Mets, who went to the NLCS, were a terrible 24-33 as June began.
Compare and contrast: 2024 D-backs and 2025 D-backs entering June
Offense
At this point in 2024, the D-backs were somehow ninth in MLB (4.5 runs per game) in scoring despite ranking 16th with an OPS of .694.
Joc Pederson and Christian Walker were Arizona’s top hitters statistically, while Carroll and Suarez both sported sub-.600 OPS numbers. The team was solid with runners in scoring position, hitting .266 with a wRC+ of 111 (100 is average), to make up some ground.
The Diamondbacks entered this June fifth in scoring with 5.1 runs per game and fourth in OPS at .779. Carroll and Suarez have had much better starts, while Perdomo has been a breakthrough performer at the plate.
Situational hitting has not been as productive, with the team hitting .240 with a wRC+ of 91 with RISP.
Starting pitching
Arizona’s top five pitchers by innings after May 2024 were Brandon Pfaadt, Gallen, Montgomery, Ryne Nelson and Slade Cecconi, and this was pre-second-half-breakout Nelson.
Their starting pitcher ERA was 4.50, although D-backs starters ranked 25th in innings.
The ERA is essentially the same this year at 4.51, despite a much more proven group available.
Diamondbacks starters have racked up a lot more innings this time, ranked seventh in MLB. Burnes and Kelly have been great, Pfaadt was having a solid season before his latest blowup and Nelson has picked up where he left off while filling in for injuries. Rodriguez and Gallen will need to improve from some early-season inconsistencies.
Burnes’ uncertain situation throws a wrench into the equation, as he underwent an MRI on Monday.
Bullpen
Here is a massive difference, as the 2024 bullpen at this point held a 4.23 ERA while taking on a heavier load. This year, the ERA has jumped a full run to 5.28.
Martinez is back, and Puk could be at some point later this month or early next. If Martinez locks down the closer role with Shelby Miller and Jalen Beeks able to set him up properly, that leaves some room for optimism while Puk progresses. Ryan Thompson and Kevin Ginkel getting back on track given their importance over the past couple seasons is key.
Nelson was preparing to re-enter the bullpen before Burnes’ injury, so that is now a fluid situation.
Defense
The defense wasn’t great at the beginning of last year, either. Losing Perdomo and Thomas within a few days of each other put them in a tough spot. Their defense never quite lived up to the previous couple seasons, but it eventually stabilized.
Arizona had committed 25 errors entering June 2024. This year they have 30 and many more ugly moments that don’t show up as errors in the stat sheet.
The current squad has -10 defensive runs saved and -1 outs above average, a baffling output for a team with this many capable defenders.
It goes beyond replacing elite defensive first baseman Walker with less sure-handed Josh Naylor/Pavin Smith. It has been a team-wide issue, especially late in games. Lovullo said this weekend that the group has one of the best defenses in innings 1-6 and is near or at the bottom of MLB during the final three innings of games.
Counting on an otherworldly run from the offense to out-slug everyone again is a tough ask. This team was built around a dynamite pitching staff, clean defense and an offense good enough to push wins across.
That has not been this team’s identity so far, and the closer it becomes so, the better chance they’ll have to finally stack wins together.
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