With the Stanley Cup on the line, the NHL’s championship series is set to get underway. We’re breaking down the matchup and revealing our projection model’s pick.
It was so good, why not do it again?
For the first time since the Detroit Red Wings and Pittsburgh Penguins split a pair of titles in 2008 and 2009, there will be a rematch in the Stanley Cup Final when it gets underway Wednesday in Edmonton.
And here’s to hoping it’s as thrilling as the first meeting when the Florida Panthers took a 3-0 series lead before the Oilers came storming back to take the next three and force a Game 7. But the Panthers avoided becoming the second team in NHL history – and the first since the 1942 Detroit Red Wings – to drop four straight after taking a 3-0 lead in the Stanley Cup Final.
Now here we are again.
The Panthers, who claimed the Eastern Conference title with a five-game series win over the Carolina Hurricanes, make their third straight Final appearance and hope to become the first team to go back-to-back since the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2020 and 2021. The Oilers, coming off a 4-1 series win over the Dallas Stars, will try again to capture their first title since 1990.
It’s been more than 30 years since a Canadian team has won the Stanley Cup, and our projection model points to that streak being extended by giving the Panthers a 55.0% probability of winning the series.
Our model cranks out thousands of simulations based on each team’s TRACR, win-loss record, strength of schedule, and more. TRACR normalizes team performance based on how good a team is relative to league averages, using advanced metrics and other factors on both offense and defense to calculate how many goals a team is expected to score and allow each game.
It then compares these values to the league-average club (lower is better for defense).
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Florida Panthers vs. Edmonton Oilers
Regular-Season Record: Panthers 47-31-4/Oilers 48-29-5 Regular-Season Series: Panthers 2-0 Offensive TRACR: Panthers No. 4/Oilers No. 2 Defensive TRACR: Panthers No. 2/Oilers No. 6 Overall TRACR: Panthers No. 1/Oilers No. 4 Projected Winner: Panthers (55.0%)Florida ranks second in the NHL in defensive TRACR (D-TRACR) and it’ll need to live up to that billing against Connor McDavid, who had three goals and eight assists in the 2024 Final to help him earn Conn Smythe honors (awarded to the MVP of the Stanley Cup playoffs) despite not playing for the champion.
This season, McDavid was sixth in the league with 100 points during the regular season and leads all skaters with 26 (six goals/20 assists) in the playoffs. The seven-time All-Star had four assists in two games against Florida during the 2024-25 regular season and has 38 points (11 goals/27 assists) in 22 career meetings (including the postseason).
McDavid has 100 assists in his 90-game playoff career, becoming the 26th player in NHL history with 100 or more playoff assists and second (along with Gretzky) to reach the 100-assist mark in fewer than 125 games. Gretzky did that in his 70th postseason game.
As a whole, the Oilers rank second in offensive TRACR (O-TRACR) heading into the Final. But they’re expected to be without standout winger Zach Hyman after he suffered an upper-body injury in Game 4 against the Dallas Stars.
Zach Hyman heads to the dressing room after taking a hit from Mason Marchment pic.twitter.com/pKJcoL5qxm
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) May 28, 2025Hyman has shined in the postseason with five goals and 11 points in 15 games.
“It’s a big hole to fill,” Oilers winger Corey Perry told reporters. “He brings a lot to our team, a lot to our lineup. He’s a workhorse.”
It’s the Panthers who could have an advantage on the attack. They rank fourth in the NHL in O-TRACR and sixth with a plus-15 power-play goal differential (including the playoffs), while the Oilers are sixth in D-TRACR but 17th with a +2 power-play goal differential.
Aleksander Barkov leads the Panthers with 17 points (six goals/11 assists) in the postseason and Sam Bennett has a team-high 10 goals and six assists. Bennett has scored an NHL-high nine goals in his 10 road playoff games (no other player has scored more than five road goals). He’s also the Panthers’ all-time leader in road playoff goals (18), compared to six at home.
Florida left winger Evan Rodrigues had a big series against the Oilers a year ago with team highs of four goals and seven points, and he finally scored for the first time this postseason (10 assists) in the clincher at Carolina.
Florida should feel good about having Sergei Bobrovsky between the pipes in Edmonton. He’s posted a 1.40 goals against average while winning five in a row on the road and has won three straight against the Oilers (including last year’s series).
Some stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team.
NHL Playoff Predictions: Will the Panthers Go Back-to-Back in the Stanley Cup Final? Opta Analyst.
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