(NewsNation) — After years of rising prices and limited inventory, the housing market is undergoing a major shift: Sellers now far outnumber buyers.
As of April, the U.S. housing market had nearly 500,000 more sellers than buyers — the largest seller surplus on record, according to a new Redfin estimate.
Aside from the start of the pandemic in April 2020, homebuyers haven't been this scarce since at least 2013, the earliest year for which Redfin has data.
As recently as February 2024, the number of buyers and sellers was roughly balanced, but the gap has steadily widened over the past year. Redfin now expects home prices to drop 1% by the end of 2025.
The online real estate brokerage highlighted three factors tilting the balance of power toward buyers: recent economic uncertainty, high home prices and a mortgage rate lock-in effect that is beginning to ease.
The new dynamics have given potential homebuyers more negotiating power than they've had in years, but so far, sellers have been slow to react.
"A lot of sellers have yet to see or accept the writing on the wall," Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan said in a statement. "Many are still holding out hope that their home is the exception and will fetch top dollar."
Florida home sellers feeling the heat
Florida sellers are feeling the most pressure in today's market, with the state home to six of the top 10 buyer's markets, according to Redfin.
In cities like Miami, West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale, sellers outnumbered buyers roughly 3 to 1 in April.
The Sunshine State's housing market has been cooling for the past year, partly due to a homebuilding boom but also because of natural disaster concerns and rising homeowner insurance costs. Skyrocketing HOA fees haven't helped either, and buyers are souring on condos especially fast.
Nationally, 31 of the top 50 metros are now considered "buyer’s markets," per Redfin, meaning potentially lower home prices as sellers compete for buyers.
Those buyer-friendly markets are heavily concentrated in the Sun Belt and on the West Coast. Elsewhere, particularly in the Midwest and Northeast, sellers still hold the power.
In April, buyers outnumbered sellers by almost 2 to 1 in Newark, New Jersey, making it the top seller's market. Nassau County, New York, and Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, also heavily favored sellers.
The housing market is considered balanced in St. Louis, Virginia Beach and Kansas City, where the number of buyers and sellers is relatively equal.
Despite the recent shift toward buyers, homeownership is likely to remain out of reach for millions of Americans. Wages haven't kept up with rising home prices, and the supply of affordable homes remains well short of demand.
In March, just 21.2% of home listings were affordable for buyers earning between $75,000 and $100,000 a year, according to a recent analysis by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
"Without a significant boost in housing inventory at price points below $260,000, the path to homeownership will remain blocked for millions of Americans," the NAR report said.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 6.89% this week, the highest level since early February, according to Freddie Mac.
Top 10 buyer’s markets in April 2025, according to Redfin
Miami, FL West Palm Beach, FL Fort Lauderdale, FL Austin, TX Jacksonville, FL Tampa, FL Phoenix, AZ Las Vegas, NV Orlando, FL Nashville, TNTop 7 seller’s markets in April 2025, according to Redfin
Newark, NJ Nassau County, NY Montgomery County, PA Cleveland, OH New Brunswick, NJ Providence, RI Baltimore, MD Read More Details
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