In the third instalment of our Lions ‘Squad Builder’ series, we select our starting half-backs for the first Lions Test against Australia.
In the lead up to the 2025 Lions tour to Australia, we’re building our starting XV to take on the Wallabies in the all-important first Test.
Using Opta’s extensive rugby database, we’re assessing the skills and attributes of the contenders for each position in the team, before selecting our starting team.
We’ve already selected the back three and two centres in our starting lineup. Today, we’re looking at who Andy Farrell could opt for at half-back.
Lions Squad Builder Series:
RugbyLions 2025 Squad Builder: Picking Our Starting Centres for the First Test
1 week ago Jordan Kingston RugbyLions 2025 Squad Builder: Our Starting Back Three for the First Test
2 weeks ago Jonny McCormickScrum-Half
There are three scrum-halves in the 2025 Lions squad and it wouldn’t be surprising if all three featured in a Test match at some stage. They all offer something slightly different and you’ve also got to consider their partnership with the fly-half picked outside them and, albeit to a lesser extent, the pivot they share with the No. 8 too.
In Matt Dawson and Gregor Townsend, 1997 was the last time the Lions picked a club pairing at 9-10. Both were plying their trade for Northampton Saints when they started in the first two Tests vs South Africa, and they even had club mate Tim Rodber starting at No. 8 in both matches. Could we see another Saints combo this year?
Jamison Gibson-Park provides probably the safest pick and is someone Andy Farrell is familiar with from the Ireland set up. The 33-year-old offers a bit of everything: a threat in attack, robust in defence and reliable with the boot.
His ability in defence in particularly noteworthy. Gibson-Park’s tackle success rate of 81% since the 2023 Rugby World Cup is the best of his Lions rivals, while his tally of nine dominant tackles is more than twice as many as any scrum-half from a Tier 1 nation.
Of course, he is also a class act in attack and has often been the heartbeat of Farrell’s Irish side. Those key moments have often come with his creativity, with the Leinster No. 9 averaging 0.9 try assists per 80 minutes since the beginning of last year. That is a tally only former World Rugby Player of the Year winners, Antoine Dupont (1.7) and Beauden Barrett (1.0), as well as fellow Lions tourist Fin Smith (1.0), can better.
From an attacking perspective, Alex Mitchell is probably the pick of the three, with the Englishman averaging more tries, metres, defenders beaten, breaks and offloads than his rivals. In fact, Dupont is the only scrum-half to beat more defenders (25) since 2024 than Mitchell (21).
Defensively, he could be a risk. Mitchell’s tackle success rate of 56% is by far the worst of any international No. 9 to play 200+ minutes since the RWC, and his tally of 29 missed tackles is a worry. Australia will likely play loose and fast, and if they can find gaps on the fringes then momentum could swing their way.
Mitchell has also been heavily used as a kicker on the international scene, averaging 15 kicks in play per 80 minutes since the 2023 World Cup, the most of any No. 9 to play more than 200 minutes.
The Saints scrum-half shouldn’t be pigeonholed as a kicking half-back though. His numbers for his club contrast heavily with his numbers for country, and you can potentially get a better idea of his natural game when in the black, green and gold hoops, with Mitchell sniping and getting in behind defences.
Tomos Williams is potentially the outsider in this selection but his form for Gloucester this season gives him a strong chance of getting on the pitch in at least one of the Test matches. One of just two Wales players in the squad, he’ll be hoping to get a chance to prove himself on the biggest stage with a winning team, rather than in a Wales side that has lost 17 consecutive matches.
In the Premiership this season he has scored eight tries and registered a further 10 try assists, with no player bettering his tally of 18 try involvements (Harry Randall also 18). He’s also proven to be one of the most devastating trail runners in the league in 2024-25, making 19 support breaks – at least six more than any other player.
In fact, despite Wales’ poor form, he’s also averaged 0.8 support breaks per 80 minutes in international rugby since the beginning of 2024, more than any other scrum-half (min. 400 minutes) over that time.
Our Pick at Scrum-Half: Jamison Gibson-Park
Taking into account the strengths and weaknesses of each scrum-half, we’re going with Jamison Gibson-Park as our man to steer the Lions pack around the park in the first Test against Australia.
Knowing Farrell’s gameplan inside out gives him an obvious leg up, but he has the most rounded skillset of the three No. 9s while being a solid defender around the fringes.
Mitchell and Williams each provide huge impact off the bench with their attacking games so both men can still have a huge impact in this summer’s series.
Fly-Half
Two Fin(n)s and two Smiths. Two mercurial talents and a 22-year-old with the world at his feet. Picking the starting fly-half for this Lions tour is probably the hardest task we’ll have in our Squad Builder. But it’s also probably the most important.
We could take the easy option and suggest Marcus Smith has been included for his versatility and will potentially be battling it out for a spot on the bench with England teammate Elliot Daly. Both players can fill a variety of spots when called on and have match-winning credentials.
But framing Smith’s selection purely around utility would overlook his standout quality as a fly-half.
Smith’s running game is second to none. Of players with 400+ minutes at fly-half since the beginning of 2024, Smith ranks top for metres gained per carry (6.4) as well as defenders beaten (4.7) and line breaks (0.8) per 80 minutes.
The flip side of that, though, is that he passes less than any other Tier One fly-half. Plus, only Thomas Ramos (6.7) and Jack Crowley (7.8) have averaged fewer kicks from hand than Smith while playing at 10.
For a Test fly-half, getting the backline moving and playing in the right areas of the pitch are critical. That raises a small question mark: will Smith’s running style align with Farrell’s tactical approach? Or can Farrell shape a gameplan to get the best out of the Harlequins playmaker?
Finn Russell has been one of the world’s best fly-halves for several years and may feel he has a point to prove in the famous red jersey, having only featured off the bench in the final Test of the 2021 series.
Since that Lions series, Russell has arguably been one of the most creative forces in world rugby. No player has registered more line-break assists in Test rugby in that time (52, level with Damian McKenzie) while only Dupont (26) has assisted more tries than the Scotland talisman (23).
His numbers have tailed off slightly in 2025 and as a result, both Smiths have actually posted more try and break assists than Russell since the beginning of 2024. However his performances for Bath this season do suggest that any downturn in form has been limited solely to Scotland’s Six Nations campaign, in which Russell was without Sione Tuipulotu – our pick for the number 12 jersey.
In the Premiership, no player has assisted more tries than Russell in 2024-25 (12, level with Randall) while he’s one of three players to register more than 20 line-break assists (21). The others? Messrs Smith and Smith (Fin – 22, Marcus – 21).
Russell’s kicking ability shouldn’t be overlooked either, particularly his accuracy when putting boot to ball in open play. His five 50-22 kicks are two more than any other player in the English top flight this season.
Lastly, there’s Fin Smith – the rising star at fly-half, and grandson of a 1955 Lions tourist. The past 12 months have marked a real breakout for the Northampton Saint, who guided his club to a Champions Cup final and earned his first England start. So far, Steve Borthwick’s side have won all four matches with the 23-year-old wearing the No. 10 shirt.
Smith’s skillset arguably places him somewhere between Finn Russell and Marcus Smith. But like the Scottish playmaker, his standout strength lies in bringing others into the game. Since the start of 2024, he’s one of only three Tier One players averaging at least one try assist per 80 minutes – the others being Dupont and Beauden Barrett (min. 400 minutes).
As previously mentioned, the three Lions candidates for the No. 10 jersey have assisted the most line breaks in the Premiership this season. It is the Saints fly-half who sits top of the charts though (22), with Marcus Smith and Russell both on 21. He’s managed that despite playing fewer minutes than both.
It’s a tough call who to hand the jersey to, with all three men equally capable of exposing any chinks in the Wallabies armour. But perhaps the tie-breaker will be the respective goal-kicking abilities of the trio.
Lions Tests, and even entire series, have often come down to last-minute kicks. Many will remember Morne Steyn’s heroics in both 2009 and 2021, or Owen Farrell levelling the 2017 series against the All Blacks. Indeed, the 2013 series could have had a different complexion had both Australia and the Lions not missed potentially match-winning kicks late on in the opening two Tests.
The three have all registered similar goal-kicking success rates in international rugby since the beginning of 2024, so at first glance it seems there isn’t much to separate them.
However our expected kicking model (xGK) helps shine a light on the difficulty of kicks each player has faced in the last 18 months of Test action. The average kicker would have been expected to land 80% of the kicks that both Marcus Smith and Finn Russell attempted for their respective nations.
Meanwhile, Fin Smith, who has registered an identical success rate to Russell, would have been expected to land just 73% of his attempts given their difficulty.
Of the 16 players to attempt as many kicks as Smith for a Six Nations or Rugby Championship side, only Thomas Ramos (+13 percentage points) boasts a bigger overperformance than the Northampton Saints kicker (+9 percentage points).
Our Pick at Fly-Half: Fin Smith
It is perhaps the most tightly-contested spot in our Lions squad so far, but we’re backing Fin Smith’s stock to rise even further this summer, as he seals a spot in our XV for the opening Test of the 2025 series. Barring injuries, our back line is now locked in. Here’s how it looks:
Check out our other Rugby Union content on Opta Analyst. You can also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook
Lions 2025 Squad Builder: Selecting the Half-Backs for the First Test Opta Analyst.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Lions 2025 Squad Builder: Selecting the Half-Backs for the First Test )
Also on site :