By Sam Blacker on SwimSwam
The men’s 100 breaststroke final at the 2025 U.S. Trials will see a lot of turnover. Six of last year’s finalists are either confirmed to be out or are looking unlikely to suit up in Indianapolis, Josh Matheny (3rd) and Michael Andrew (8th) the only two who have competed at all this season.
That should give us one of the biggest shifts in Trials finalists ever, but more so because neither of the top two from 2024 are likely to be there. A final that returns only 7th and 8th suggests greater turnover than one that returns only 1st and 2nd.
Fewer returning swimmers means more jeopardy over who makes the final, and depending on who those swimmers are more jeopardy over who makes the top two. If a Worlds or Olympic qualifier from the previous trials does not return there is a bigger prize up for grabs than just a spot in the final.
So how will the 2025 final compare to events at previous Trials? The best way to make that comparison is to put a number on it.
The Methodology
To compare the continuity of Trials finals, we have devised a Finals Continuity Score. Each swimmer in a Trials final receives a score based on their finishing position in that event. At the next Trials, we add up the scores of the returning swimmers and divide by the maximum possible score (all swimmers returning).
Example:
2016 Men’s 200 fly
Michael Phelps – 8 points Tom Shields – 7 points Jack Conger – 6 points Gunnar Bentz – 5 points Chase Kalisz – 4 points Pace Clark – 3 points Zach Harting – 2 points Andrew Seliskar – 1 point
2017 Men’s 200 fly
Jack Conger – 6 returning points Pace Clark – 3 returning points Chase Kalisz – 4 returning points Gunnar Bentz – 5 returning points Justin Wright – NEW Zach Harting – 2 returning points Mick Litherland – NEW Miles Smachlo – NEW
Total returning points: 20
Maximum possible returning points: 36
Final Continuity Score: 0.556 (20/36)
Note that this methodology does not look at why a swimmer does not return – someone missing the final in 9th is treated the same way as a retiring swimmer, such as Michael Phelps in the example above.
This year’s 100 breaststroke would come away with a score of 0.194 if Matheny and Andrew make the final – low but not the lowest we’ve seen. The men’s 1500 free final in 2017 only had a score of 0.167, returning PJ Ransford (5th in 2016) and a 17-year-old Bobby Finke (7th in 2016).
So, how does each event stack up? We’ve collated the data from all U.S. Trials finals since 2013, which gives us Continuity Scores for a decade’s worth of Trials (2014-2024).
N.B. The stroke 50s have three data points, the men’s 800 free (and women’s 1500 free) has six and all other events have eight. Only consecutive Trials are counted to determine scores, so non-Olympic events only feature here in the second Trials of the pair between Olympic years.
The Extremes
It isn’t a breaststroke event that props up the table, but rather mid-distance freestyle. The 400 freestyle ranks last with a score of 0.490, whilst the 200 just about rises above 0.5. The 50 breaststroke is just ahead of the 400 with a score of just 0.491, the only event other than the 400 under 0.5. The 100 is not far ahead of the 50 with a score of 0.507, but it makes it out of the bottom three.
Lowest Mean Continuity Scores
400 free – 0.490 50 breaststroke – 0.491 200 free – 0.503The mid-distance freestyle here is perhaps surprising as the sprint freestyles rank among the top three for continuity. The lack of a bona fide 400 freestyler for the US since the retirement of Peter Vanderkaay is a key factor in this, but the turnover runs deep. Kieran Smith is the only swimmer to have made all four Trials finals since 2021 (inclusive).
The three most consistent finals for the men are perhaps unsurprising. The 50 and 100 free, blue-ribbon events, have had a consistent US presence on the podium across the years, as has the 100 backstroke. All three backstroke events rank in the top six.
Highest Mean Continuity Scores
50 free – 0.705 100 backstroke – 0.698 100 free – 0.691 Event Average Continuity Score 2014-24 World Medals Olympic Medals Total Medals 50 free 0.700 5 (2 gold, 3 silver) 3 (2 gold, 1 bronze) 8 (4 gold, 3 silver, 1 bronze) 100 back 0.696 7 (1 gold, 2 silver, 4 bronze) 4 (1 gold, 3 bronze) 11 (2 gold, 2 silver, 7 bronze) 100 free 0.689 4 (2 gold, 2 silver) (1 gold, 1 bronze) 6 (3 gold, 2 silver, 1 bronze) 400 IM 0.677 6 (1 gold, 3 silver, 2 bronze) 4 (1 gold, 2 silver, 1 bronze) 10 ( 2 gold, 5 silver, 3 bronze) 50 back 0.676 6 (2 gold, 3 silver, 1 bronze) – 6 (2 gold, 3 silver, 1 bronze) 200 back 0.660 6 (1 gold, 3 silver, 2 bronze) 2 (1 gold, 1 silver) 8 ( 2 gold, 4 silver, 2 bronze) 200 breast 0.649 2 (1 silver, 1 bronze) 1 (1 silver) 3 (2 silver, 1 bronze) 50 fly 0.611 3 (2 gold, 1 bronze) – 3 (2 gold, 1 bronze) 100 fly 0.601 3 (2 gold, 1 bronze) 2 (1 gold 1 silver) 5 (3 gold, 2 silver) 200 fly 0.583 0 1 (1 gold) 1 ( 1 gold) 800 free 0.567 2 (1 gold, 1 bronze) 2 (1 gold, 1 silver) 4 (2 gold, 1 silver, 1 bronze) 1500 free 0.563 3 (3 silver) 3 (2 gold, 1 silver) 6 (2 gold, 4 silver) 200 IM 0.559 4 (2 gold, 1 silver, 1 bronze) 1 (1 gold) 5 (3 gold, 1 silver, 1 bronze) 100 breast 0.552 3 (2 silver, 1 bronze) 2 (1 silver, 1 bronze) 5 (3 silver, 2 bronze) 200 free 0.503 1 (1 silver) 2 (2 bronze) 3 (1 silver, 2 bronze) 50 breast 0.491 4 (1 gold, 1 silver, 2 bronze) – 4 (1 gold, 1 silver, 2 bronze) 400 free 0.490 0 1 (1 bronze) 1 (1 bronze)In every event with a Continuity Score greater than 0.65, the US has won at least six international medals since 2015. No event with a score below 0.65 has a better return. In the lowest-scoring event, the 400 free, there is only one international medal: Kieran Smith’s bronze in Tokyo.
A strong Continuity Score, however, does not necessarily mean a strong presence internationally for the US. The 200 breaststroke has the seventh highest score but has only three international medals to show for it – that, however, says more about the strength of the European and Asian nations in this stroke.
In the Olympic events, we get an R-squared value of 0.549 between the Continuity Score and the number of international medals won, where a value of 1 indicates a perfect model and 0 one that does not explain the data at all. Ignore the 200 breaststroke and 200 fly, another event the US has not been strong in internationally over the last decade, and the R-squared value jumps up to 0.764.
We’ve only taken a small sample size here, and there will be both underlying factors for and covariant factors to the Continuity Score, but it appears to be an informative metric.
Year by Year
Despite the uncertainty over the US men’s team this year, 2024 was actually the most consistent Trials in terms of finalists in the last decade.
Not only that, but it is the only Olympic year of the three in this time period not to experience a marked drop in continuity from the previous trials. The two lowest years were 2016 and 2021, with average scores of 0.524 and 0.516, respectively, far below the score of 0.699 for 2024.
There has been a strong upward trend in the Continuity Score since Tokyo. That is unlikely to continue in 2025 with retirements and post-Olympic years off.
Given the three-year gap from the 2018 Trials to the next one in 2021, the low score is understandable. Half the events that year had a score below 0.5, with the butterfly events seeing the most turnover, along with the 400 and 800 freestyles. The 50 free and 100 backstroke are at the top once again.
Stroke Breakdown
Here’s what the year-by-year breakdown per event looks like, grouped by stroke.
No final has had a perfect return, but two sprint freestyle events came closest. The 2014 50 free and 2018 100 free finals only lost 8th-place finishers Karl Krug and Ryan Murphy, respectively, from the previous Trials.
Distance Freestyle
The 800 and 1500 were closely matched from 2021-23, but as a whole the 1500 has been far more volatile. The 400 is on the other end of the scale, with the most consistent score year-to-year of all freestyle events.
Backstroke
Not just consistent but consistently consistent, no backstroke final has had a Continuity Score below 0.5. Barring retirement (David Plummer – 2017, Jacob Pebley – 2021) or alternative event choices (Shaine Casas, 2023), both of the top two have made it into the next Trials final every time in all three of these events. That won’t continue this year – Ryan Murphy (100, 200) and Hunter Armstrong (100) will not be swimming in Indianapolis.
Breaststroke
The 100 breaststroke has been on an upswing since 2022, although both the 100 and 200 were a little under the average in 2024. The two distances have kept in line with each other to a degree over the last decade, with last year marking the first time since 2018 their scores moved in opposite directions.
Butterfly
All three butterfly events have appeared to follow the same path, but they have been firmly on the up since a transformative 2021. Even though the continuity has been higher since then, only two swimmers from those 2021 finals are likely to compete in either the 100 and 200 fly this time around: Luca Urlando and Trenton Julian.
IM
Other than in 2017 and 2024 the two medley distances have moved in lockstep, even matching exactly in 2018. The 400 may continue its downward trend this year, with Jay Litherland (3rd) and Ian Grum (4th) definitely not returning, and the status of Chase Kalisz (2nd) up in the air having not competed in meters so far this year.
Read the full story on SwimSwam: Flux At The Highest Level: How Consistent Are Trials Finals Year-To-Year – Men’s
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