Karl-Anthony Towns sat out much of the fourth quarter in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals. But the Knicks need a lot more from him to get back in this NBA playoff series.
It’s fair to say the NBA Eastern Conference finals haven’t gone as planned for the New York Knicks while they’ve fallen to a 2-0 series deficit.
The Indiana Pacers had one of their insane comebacks to win Game 1, then won 114-109 in a Game 2 that was tied heading into the fourth quarter.
The final quarter Friday night wasn’t only about what happened on the court, it was about who was absent from the court for a good portion of the period. Karl-Anthony Towns, the Knicks’ second-best player who averaged 24.9 points per game in the regular season, played less than half of the quarter as coach Tom Thibodeau opted to play Mitchell Robinson over him and go away from a dual-big man lineup following a three-minute stretch to start the quarter.
There were certainly reasons to play Towns less than usual, and playing Robinson and Towns together is risky against the Pacers. But it’s a risk Thibodeau might have to take if he wants his team to get back into this series. (Our projection model gives the Knicks just a 21.9% probability of advancing to the NBA Finals.)
Falling Star
The good news is Towns didn’t commit four fouls in Game 2, ending a streak of 12 straight games of doing so. The bad news is it was mostly because the 7-foot power forward played only 28 minutes, his playoff low (he still committed three fouls).
It doesn’t matter if Towns avoids foul trouble if he’s going to be on the bench anyway. Towns had an excellent Game 1 offensively with 35 points on 64.7% shooting from the field, but those numbers shrunk to 20 points on 42.9% from the field in Game 2. But his defense and the play of Robinson were the reasons he stayed on the bench as long as he did.
Robinson has been a force on the offensive glass in this series. The Knicks center has grabbed four offensive rebounds in each game and even that doesn’t do justice to how much he’s changed the games when he’s played. The Pacers are extremely wary of him crashing the glass and even dusted off center Tony Bradley in Game 2 to try to combat Robinson’s physicality.
Thibodeau evidently wanted to keep Robinson in for a larger fourth-quarter stint and, after a poor start to the dual big lineup to start the quarter, didn’t find it viable down the stretch. When Towns finally came back in, he did so for Robinson.
When Towns and Robinson played together, there were stretches when the team struggled to score, but they generated a lot of good shots and missed them, which happens in a one-game sample. Towns is an elite floor-spacer and created good looks for himself even as the primary option when star point guard Jalen Brunson didn’t share the floor with them.
But the Pacers exposed Towns and Robinson on defense and made the Knicks blink in taking Towns off the floor.
Run This Karl-Anthony Towns
The Pacers are in the Eastern Conference finals in large part because of elite problem-solving skills.
While Tyrese Haliburton gets a lot of credit for this (as he should), it’s not just him. Coach Rick Carlisle is one of the best tacticians in the game, and the Pacers’ roster is full of above-average decision-makers. What they’ve done with Towns and Robinson on the floor is a good example.
A lot of other teams might opt to go after the two big men in isolation. The Pacers do that when the timing is right, but they’ve found the best way to cause problems is to keep them moving off the ball.
This play ends in poor defense from Towns, but perhaps he would’ve been better in the pick-and-roll if he hadn’t had to spend the possession chasing someone around the perimeter.
When Pacers forward Pascal Siakam is in, Robinson has to guard him if Towns is on the floor. That presents problems because Robinson’s DNA screams at him to protect the paint. Siakam take advantages by simply moving any time Robinson moves away from him.
Siakam misses this 3-point attempt, but it’s a simple relocation to get a wide-open look. Robinson has to fight his instincts and pay more attention to someone as talented as Siakam on the perimeter.
The communication for the Knicks defense was off all game as the Pacers’ constant movement had them in flux.
That just isn’t good enough at this stage of the season. The miscommunication is among all of Cam Payne, Towns and Robinson. Towns starts to crash toward the paint with two defenders already there corralling Turner, Payne panics and runs out to Ben Sheppard even though it’s pretty clear Towns has already turned to correct his initial mistake and Robinson has both of them in his line of sight, bailing to the same player but choosing to run to Siakam on the wing instead of staying with Turner right at the basket.
Yes, mental errors all around.
Hit Them With Your Best Shot
The Pacers have done a good job exploiting lineups with Towns and Robinson defensively, so it makes sense that Thibodeau might want to avoid them. But playing them together more might still be the best of his limited options.
For starters, it’s not like the lineups have performed worse than the team’s other options. The Knicks have a -6.0 net rating in the 16 minutes, 2 seconds when Towns and Robinson share the floor and a -7.7 rating when one or both of them isn’t on the court.
It’s dangerous to read too much into net rating for a small sample, but it’s fair to point out the results haven’t been so alarming that it’s an easy decision to not pair the two of them together. Towns and Robinson have some issues together, but the Knicks have issues when either one is off the floor, too. Most teams have problems to deal with in the conference finals; it’s how each team solves these problems that determines who wins.
When there are some glaring issues like Towns and Robinson playing defense together, it can be easy to blame any problems that arise on those issues. But when the two played together, the team’s defensive breakdowns weren’t always about them as a pair.
This is simple miscommunication that seems to be Robinson’s fault at first glance but is mostly on Payne for jumping out to Siakam like he was going to guard him and then bailing. Payne’s off-ball defense was a constant issue during his playing time that had nothing to do with him sharing the floor with Robinson and Towns.
Payne also has shot 2 for 10 through two games of this series. The Knicks’ rotation is already down to eight players, but they might need to lean on their top seven even more and cut Payne’s minutes altogether. If not, Thibodeau should at least have a very quick hook for him.
The Knicks are stuck without great options because of how well the Pacers exploit any liability, but they should at least try playing Robinson and Towns together more and hope the advantages they provide on offense will make up for the awkward defensive fit. Towns is a great scorer and constantly forces help when he gets close to the lane. That provides more offensive rebounding windows for Robinson. There’s enough playmaking around them to make it work on that end and cause issues for the Pacers defense, and they can force Siakam to spend a lot of energy on the defensive end when he has to guard a big.
If the Knicks are going to go down in the series, they should go down playing their best players. Towns has had some playoff struggles, but the Knicks aren’t going to win anything without more from him, and he can only give more if he’s on the floor.
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The Karl-Anthony Towns Problem: What Do the Knicks Do With Their Star Player? Opta Analyst.
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