After a few days to mull over a Game 7 Conference Semi-Finals loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets Chairman Josh Kroenke declared yesterday that David Adelman would be the team’s next Head Coach.
It wasn’t a shocking decision. It was a good move, though the timing was odd. Deciding to name the Head Coach before any input from a prospective General Manager potentially undercuts that individual’s input on the decision and the alignment needed to make collaborative decisions. Still, Kroenke felt good about Adelman and said as much yesterday.
The rest of Kroenke’s presser was incredibly interesting as well, especially his stance on Denver’s ability to maneuver and make changes this offseason.
“A lot of our roster is locked in from a contractual standpoint,” Kroenke shared. “Right now we don’t have a pick in the draft, but we’re going to be very active in exploring how we can improve around that as well as free agency.”
For full clarity, 11 of the 15 roster spots are currently locked in for next season. The only four that aren’t: DeAndre Jordan and Vlatko Čančar are unrestricted free agents, while Russell Westbrook and Dario Saric have player options. Westbrook may decide to opt out after a productive statistical season to explore other opportunities and to make more money, while Saric is almost certainly exercising that option to earn $5.4 million after playing just 16 games last season.
Unless the Nuggets make some trades, they have very little in the way of roster flexibility. They also have few assets to attach to player contracts to cause a serious shift. With one first round pick in 2031 available to trade and zero second round picks, the Nuggets simply do not have the ability to tangibly improve their roster without getting into some uncomfortable discussions.
So, the next point of business for Kroenke at his presser yesterday: emphasizing the idea of “Running it Back” next season.
“I think a lot of our answers are internal right now, you know, with where we are from a roster standpoint. We have guys locked into contracts,” Kroenke emphasized.
“I know that we’ve already had DA as our coach for six weeks or so, but, you know, he didn’t really get a chance to really implement any of his own ideas because of the timeframe.”
Those quotes are extremely telling to me, laying out the reasoning for why Denver may choose to run it back and also the circumstance that put them there. On top of being stuck, the Nuggets are at least projecting the idea of getting “unstuck” with their current group mostly intact. Denver’s starters were great already, and bringing back Westbrook, and allowing some offseason development time for Peyton Watson and Julian Strawther might make Denver’s playoff rotation “marginally better” by itself. If the idea is that guys like DaRon Holmes II, Zeke Nnaji, Jalen Pickett, and Hunter Tyson are in better position to contribute with Adelman in charge rather than Malone, then Denver doesn’t need to make waves to become a better group.
So, if Denver can only add a couple of marginal rotation options in free agency that give Adelman and the coaching staff some extra tools in the toolbox, then maybe that’s enough for Kroenke and the Nuggets to seriously consider the idea.
In addition, by waiting a bit longer to take “the swing” the Nuggets might be in better position with slightly better assets to make that move when the time comes. Right now, a team has to talk themselves into two years of Michael Porter Jr.’s contract as well as a hope to re-sign him when injuries may shorten his career. Teams have a limited vision of Watson and Strawther as “trade chips” because of their roles, but if Denver plays them more, perhaps a team decides they’re interested.
Lastly, Denver’s 2032 first round pick becomes available to trade this summer, and their 2033 pick the next summer. If the Nuggets do stay patient, they will have multiple first round picks to throw around to try and make the best deal they can, but that’s only if they don’t spend the 2031 first round pick prematurely.
Of course, the other side of “Running it Back” is a much darker and perhaps much more possible reality.
Nikola Jokic isn’t getting any younger. He turned 30 this past February and has likely played the best basketball of his career already. Colleague Andy Bailey over at Bleacher Report recently ranked Jokic’s five-year peak as the third best ever behind only Michael Jordan and LeBron James. Talk about rarified air. Both MJ and LeBron won later in their career. MJ’s second three-peat coming from his Age 32 to 34 seasons, while LeBron won championships in his Age 31 and Age 35 seasons. It’s certainly possible to win at that age, but it took star laden teams, rosters full of strong role players, and even a bit of luck to make it happen.
If the Nuggets continue to stay stagnant, they run the risk of getting fully complacent with the single championship they obtained. They’re not complacent. Kroenke certainly isn’t, and that’s why Malone and Booth were ultimately fired.
But rather than acknowledge the very real possibility that Denver’s core simply isn’t as dynamic as it was in 2023, or the strong role player supporting cast around those top four players, Kroenke appears to be blaming Malone and Booth’s feud as the reason for failure rather than the original plan they all forged together.
Is it reasonable to expect a cash strapped rotation to operate at peak capacity when Jamal Murray is going to make over $50 million per season to be a solid starter in the regular season and a playoff riser sometimes?
Is it reasonable to expect great things from Denver in a playoff environment when Michael Porter Jr. has consistently faltered against teams with athleticism and physicality?
Is it reasonable to expect Russell Westbrook, Peyton Watson, and Julian Strawther to be the bench Denver needs them to be in the playoffs when they weren’t consistent enough these last few weeks?
Is it reasonable to expect Zeke Nnaji, Dario Saric, and others off the extended bench to fundamentally change who they are and become reliable playoff contributors?
Now, is it reasonable to expect at least three of those four things to happen, for Jokic to remain at best player in the world levels, and for the team to stay healthy all at the same time?
Running it back might seem like the safer strategy to some, but if the goal is to win a championship, I’d argue that we have the data we already need to know that Denver isn’t at that peak championship level that Oklahoma City has reached this season.
Perhaps in Adam Silver’s new NBA with shorter contention windows and a wider range of championship outcomes, the Nuggets can talk themselves in simply remaining good enough to stay in the picture and then making the right move at the right time. The Dallas Mavericks did this with Dirk Nowitzki. The Milwaukee Bucks did this with Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Toronto Raptors did it with Kawhi Leonard.
What do they all have in common? They only won one championship.
The Pros and Cons of the Denver Nuggets “Running it Back” next season Mile High Sports.
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