We look ahead to Monday’s League Two play-off final at Wembley Stadium with our AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall prediction and preview. Who will earn promotion to League One?
AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall Stats: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer makes AFC Wimbledon favourites, winning in 52.6% of simulations and doing so inside 90 minutes 40.4% of the time. Prior to the play-offs, Walsall won just three of their last 21 games of the League Two campaign (D10 L8). This will be AFC Wimbledon’s sixth EFL play-off game, having won four and drawn one of the previous five.Which team beginning with ‘W’ will get the W at Wembley on Monday as AFC Wimbledon and Walsall do battle for a place in League One?
Mat Sadler’s Walsall will wonder how their promotion hasn’t already been sealed. They led League Two for much of the campaign, even boasting a 12-point lead as recently as mid-January.
However, they won just three of their final 21 games (D10 L8) to slip down into the play-off spots. They did appear to rediscover their form just in time, though, easing past Chesterfield in the semi-finals.
A 2-0 win at the SMH Group Stadium, before a 2-1 victory in the return game, saw the Saddlers secure a 4-1 aggregate success and book their place at Wembley.
They will be hoping to improve their record in the capital, though. Since the start of 2019, Walsall have won just two of their 12 league games in London (D4 L6), netting multiple goals in only one of those matches, a 2-2 draw at Bromley in March.
However, the Midlands club do enjoy a good record in play-off finals. This will be the third time Walsall have played in an EFL play-off final, winning each of the previous two against Bristol City in a replay in May 1988 (4-0) and against Reading in May 2001 (3-2).
AFC Wimbledon have an excellent record too, having never lost a play-off game (W4 D1), including beating Plymouth Argyle 2-0 in the 2016 League Two final.
Wimbledon will be playing at Wembley for the third time since their formation as AFC Wimbledon in 2002. Their first visit was that victory over Plymouth, before they were beaten 3-0 by Tottenham Hotspur in the FA Cup third round in January 2018 while Spurs used the national stadium as a temporary home.
Wimbledon beat Notts County to reach this final, with a pair of 1-0 wins seeing Johnnie Jackson’s men through relatively comfortably.
This game should be a fascinating tactical battle, with only four teams in the EFL (including play-offs) keeping more clean sheets than Wimbledon (23) this season. It is already seven more than they’ve ever managed in another EFL campaign. Should they shut Walsall out, they will become the first side to keep a clean sheet in all three League Two play-off matches in a single season since Northampton Town in 2019-20.
However, they’ll come up against the most potent attack in League Two this season (inc. play-offs). Walsall have scored more goals (79) and generated more expected goals (77.1 xG) than any other team in the fourth tier. Across the entire EFL, only Leeds United (95) and Birmingham City (84) have more goals than the Saddlers.
Total goals excludes own goals (1)One particular weapon Wimbledon will need to look out for is Taylor Allen, who has scored six of his 10 league goals for Walsall this season from outside the box. Only Notts County’s David McGoldrick (7) has more goals from beyond the area in the top four tiers this term.
Jackson has a potent option of his own when it comes to goals, though. Matty Stevens has recorded 20 goal contributions (17 goals, 3 assists) this season in League Two. Only Lyle Taylor in 2015-16 (28), Joe Pigott in 2020-21 (25) and Jack Midson in 2011-12 (22) have ever managed more for Wimbledon in the EFL.
AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall Head-to-Head
Having lost three consecutive league games against AFC Wimbledon between March 2023 and April 2024, conceding 10 goals in the process, Walsall were unbeaten across their two meetings with the Dons this season (W1 D1).
They won 1-0 at the Cherry Red Records Stadium back in November, with Nathan Lowe scoring the only goal of the game, one of 15 he netted for the club. The Stoke City loanee made such an impact in the first half of the season before being recalled in January that he still won the EFL League Two Young Player of the Season award.
The two teams played out a 1-1 draw at the Bescot Stadium in March, with Allen equalising late on after Omar Bugiel had put AFC Wimbledon ahead.
AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is going with the form guide here, but only just. AFC Wimbledon won inside 90 minutes in 40.4% of its 10,000 simulations, while Walsall did so in 33%.
The final went to at least extra-time and potentially penalties in the remaining 26.6%.
Overall, Wimbledon are given a 52.6% chance of triumphing on the day, while Walsall went up in the other 47.4% of sims.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Monday, here are the Opta Power Rankings for both sides.
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AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall: Opta Supercomputer League Two Play-Off Final Prediction Opta Analyst.
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