When Pope Francis died, an Augustinian associate texted Robert Francis Prevost, “I think you’d make a great pope.” Prevost replied, “I’m an American — I can’t be elected.” That assumption was widely shared. Many believed America’s global dominance disqualified its citizens. Even San Diego's Robert Cardinal McElroy said he would oppose an American pope for that very reason.
The gambling platform Kalshi gave Prevost less than a 1 percent chance. Only 416 people bet on this long shot.
Catholic theology teaches that the Holy Spirit has input. Prevost’s surprise elevation as Pope Leo XIV gives credence to this belief.
How do we divine this new, unknown Peter? Not by proclaiming him divine, but by asking: What is his inner self? Ancient Etruscan priests read entrails to divine the future; today’s press scrutinizes whatever entrails can be found anywhere.
In the original meaning of the word catholic, Leo has a remarkable record of quiet global engagement, from the grassroots to the elite, a wide-ranging worldview. Modern popes have traveled extensively after their elections, something truly catholic in the original meaning of the word.
Leo's American identity-at a time when two American leaders embody opposing visions of democracy-places him at the intersection of a deepening global struggle over democracy, nationalism, and faith.
Critics argue the Church is historically anti-democratic. Popes like Gregory XVI and Pius IX condemned democracy. The American Revolution hardly registered with the Vatican; after all, the colonies were British and predominantly Protestant. But the French Revolution was a different matter. Catholicism, long entrenched as the state religion, lost its privileges, properties and political power. This was revolting to the Vatican.
For many, the Roman church’s bias toward monarchy and against democracy has evolved with less hostility. In America, with the First Amendment, Catholicism encountered “the free marketplace of religion.” Individuals could choose their faith freely. And a religion based on choice is more vibrant than a moribund state-sponsored religion, because the latter has no competition, according to no less than Adam Smith.
Conservative Americans benignly criticized Pope Francis as ignorant of America. Leo, however, is an American who might best trump the president in a quick quiz on democracy.
Leo knows American history and how it treated Catholics from the beginning — with the same kind of suspicion with which it treats Muslims today. They experienced hostility in institutional forms as the Know-Nothing Party and the KKK. Violence was always in the wings on personal and social levels.
Leo is aware of the potency of the First Amendment's first freedom: “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion or prohibiting the free practice thereof.” In the free market of religions, democracy here allowed, nourished, and strengthened Catholicism and other beliefs.
The First Amendment underscores freedom of conscience and choice. The world has yet to thank the underrecognized American champion of conscience, Roger Williams. An ordained clergyman, he was punished for his dissenting beliefs, resulting in his establishing the first secular state, Rhode Island, as a haven and refuge. From these roots flowered our First Amendment, enshrining the inviolable right to freedom of conscience, choice and speech.
As a Catholic priest of 59 years, I was unfamiliar with Leo, since so much of his career was out of the country, even though he is a Southside Chicago native like myself. The few morsels I found were positive — simpatico to Francis but distinct, an American unknown to most American Catholics.
Then came his inaugural address. One sentence electrified me: “Evangelization is never a question of capturing others by force, by religious propaganda, or by means of power, but through love.” With that, Leo distanced himself from centuries of institutional coercion. He affirms a vision where love — not force, nor propaganda and politics — is the means. He must first persuade doubting Catholics and fellow Christians.
Leo could become a pivotal voice as Christian nationalism rises in the U.S., pushing for the collapse of the church-state wall. The late Paul Weyrich, the Catholic deacon and most skilled strategist known widely in Washington as "Pope Paul," helped bridge conservative Catholicism with evangelical nationalism. His movement's long-term success is evident from the overturn of Roe v. Wade and the rise of the Catholic Right. In the 2016 election, 52 percent of American Catholics voted for President Trump. It was 58 percent in 2024. Leo’s own brother is a fervent Trump supporter.
In his choice of name, Leo XIV evokes Leo XIII, who in 1892 urged French Catholics to accept their democratic republic. Leo XIV’s challenge to American Catholics — especially those politically aligned with Christian nationalism — is to defend the Constitution’s First Amendment prohibition of state religion, a prohibition that allowed Catholics to thrive.
Imagine a future Supreme Court case challenging church-state separation, with Christians vying against Christians for superiority. Picture citizen Robert Francis Prevost, making an appearance in a suit, to defend the very freedom that once made his own faith welcome in an unwelcoming culture.
Before a Supreme Court of conservative Catholic justices, Leo might repeat what he said previously — that the Church is not about feeling superior to the world. As the leader of a monotheistic religion, Leo would affirm pluralism which he boldly enunciated at his inauguration, “We are called to offer God’s love to everyone ... to achieve unity that does not cancel differences but values the personal history and culture of every people.”
Centuries ago, Pope Gregory VII forced King Henry IV to kneel barefoot in the snow, symbolizing the Church’s triumph over the state. Now imagine Pope Leo XIV, in a suit, standing before the U.S. Supreme Court — not to dominate, but to defend the freedom of all faiths equally.
Leo XIV invoked Leo XIII for his teachings on labor and democracy. But the most famous Leo is Leo the Great (391-461), who stood up to the barbarians that sought to destroy what remained in his era of Roman society. This new Leo is poised to save America's democracy from American barbarians within, seeking to destroy centuries of democratic compromise toward a more perfect union. A second Leo the Great?
In a world torn between the love of power and the power of love, Leo chooses the latter.
Emmett Coyne is a retired Catholic priest in the Diocese of Manchester, N.H.
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