Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was honored for winning the MVP prior to Game 2 and then was dominant in the Thunder’s victory. Can the Timberwolves make life harder on him?
Game 1 of the Western Conference finals was about reestablishing order for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Coming off a grueling seven-game series against the Denver Nuggets, the Thunder were playing the well-rested Minnesota Timberwolves, who had only dropped two games through the first two rounds of the playoffs.
The Thunder were the best team in the regular season but looked vulnerable at times to the Nuggets. They had to prove they should be seen as heavy championship favorites, as TRACR has suggested all playoffs, and did just that with a 114-88 Game 1 victory.
Game 2 was a coronation. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was announced as MVP on Wednesday and honored prior to the game Thursday night. He showed exactly why he won the award with a classic SGA performance, scoring 38 points and shooting 57.1% from the field to lead the Thunder to a 118-103 victory.
It’s still getting late early in the series for the Timberwolves who don’t have an answer for Gilgeous-Alexander or the Thunder’s stifling defense. If they can’t make drastic changes when the series heads back to Minnesota, it might be over quickly.
Hot Spots
The playoffs are supposed to be harder for star players. Opponents spend all their time and energy determining plans for how to make star players’ lives miserable.
The Timberwolves seemed equipped to at least give Gilgeous-Alexander some trouble. Jaden McDaniels is a great defender at the point of attack, and the Timberwolves have been an elite defensive team this year, ranking sixth in the league in defensive efficiency.
But so far, the effort hasn’t been good enough against SGA. He’s gotten to his spots easily, particularly in the pick-and-roll. Minnesota’s varied how it defended high screens but every coverage has left Gilgeous-Alexander too much daylight. The bigs aren’t deterring him from the lane at all and the man guarding him is stuck playing catch up. Gilgeous-Alexander is already the best player in the league at getting defenders off-balance. If they have to recover against him, they’re toast.
While the Timberwolves are contesting at the basket, Gilgeous-Alexander has won there with craftiness and unrivaled finishing ability. In the midrange, his shots are way too open, and the Timberwolves quite simply cannot survive while giving him the easy diet of shots he’s getting.
Just because SGA didn’t take a lot of 3s doesn’t mean he’s not a good shooter. He is one of the best shooters in the league on jump shots this season, and he does most of his damage in the midrange.
For the second straight game, the Timberwolves couldn’t keep Gilgeous-Alexander off the line, either. He shot 14 free throws in Game 1 and 15 in Game 2. The 29 combined free throws are the most SGA has had in a two-game span since February.
There’s been a lot of talk about foul grifting with Gilgeous-Alexander but most of the fouls have been pretty obvious ones by Timberwolves trying to stay in front of the shifty point guard.
And it’s not the first time this postseason the Timberwolves have struggled to guard a lead ball handler that likes to get to the line. The Timberwolves dispatched the Lakers in five games in the first round, but Luka Doncic averaged 30.2 points per game and 9.2 free throws per game in the series. It didn’t propel the Lakers to a competitive series, but it may have been a harbinger of things to come for the Timberwolves defense.
Chris Finch tried to resort to more aggressive tactics on Gilgeous-Alexander late in the game, but his team’s rotations behind the help were subpar and the Thunder’s great ball movement exposed these ploys easily. With under three minutes left in the game, the Timberwolves brought a hard double team on SGA before he even got the 3-point line. Gilgeous-Alexander gave up the ball early and a few easy passes later, Chet Holmgren had a layup.
The Nuggets had worse individual perimeter defenders but moved more in concert with each other as a team against Gilgeous-Alexander. Aaron Gordon’s elite play on the back line helped clean up a lot of messes. The Timberwolves need to get back to good team defense because stopping Gilgeous-Alexander is about a lot more than the one man guarding him.
Home Sweet Home?
Even if they do a better job of guarding Gilgeous-Alexander, the Timberwolves will certainly need to perform better offensively to get back in the series as well.
Julius Randle was the hot hand early in Game 1 but was basically invisible in Game 2, shooting 2 of 11 for six points and coughing up four turnovers. Anthony Edwards took only 13 shots in Game 1 and was clearly making an attempt to be more aggressive in Game 2, taking 26 shots. He did score 32 points without committing a turnover but it was hardly an efficient shooting night for him.
Stars need to be at the top of their games in the playoffs, but the Thunder defense is uniquely equipped to send waves at Edwards. He might get hot for a game, but he’s not going to be able to lift the offense up by himself against this historically great defense. If the Timberwolves don’t shoot better from 3, they’re probably drawing dead in the series.
Through two games, the Timberwolves are shooting 26 of 90 (28.9%) on 3-pointers. In Game 2, Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker combined to shoot 7 of 12 on 3s; the rest of the team shot 4 for 27.
Maybe a shift home will help, but the Timberwolves haven’t been noticeably better shooting at home this year. They shot 38.1% on 3s at home during the regular season and 37.3% on the road. In the postseason, the difference is a bit more pronounced (36.1% at home and 33.0% on the road) but still not a dramatic gap.
But the Timberwolves have shown the ability to bounce back from poor shooting performances. After shooting a combined 12 for 76 (15.8%) in Game 5 against the Lakers and Game 1 against the Golden State Warriors, the Timberwolves shot 43.2% in Game 2.
That resiliency will be needed again. The Timberwolves need to win the math this series and that includes a big advantage from 3. They can’t stop taking these shots; they just better start making them.
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