With just more than a week before it starts, Americans should prepare for an “above average” hurricane season as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts between 13 and 19 named storms.
Of those storms, the federal weather agency forecasts that six to 10 will be hurricanes — with three to five of them major ones. NOAA’s Atlantic hurricane outlook was released during a news conference Thursday, 10 days before the June 1 start of the season.
Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, and other NOAA experts urged the public to get ready for storms sooner than later.
“Everyone should be prepared as if they are going to be hit,” Graham said. “Every Category 5 hurricane [winds at least 157 mph] to ever hit this country was a tropical storm three days prior. You got to have a plan early.”
A “normal” hurricane season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes and three major ones, according to NOAA. A major hurricane is a Category 3 or higher with sustained wind speeds of at least 111 mph.
Last year, the weather agency predicted the 2024 season had an 85% chance of being above normal and forecasted its “highest ever” range of between 17 and 25 named storms. NOAA forecasts a 60% chance this season will be above normal, 30% chance of near normal and 10% chance of below normal.
That 2024 season ended up with 18 named storms and 11 hurricanes, including five major ones. That included three hurricanes — Debby, Helene and Milton — making landfall in Florida. The season tied the 2005 record for most hurricanes to hit the peninsula in a year.
Spring Oaks resident Earline Gonzales talks about the rising waters from the Little Wekiva River in her flooded neighborhood in Altamonte Springs, Friday, Oct. 11, 2024. Central Florida rivers are forecast to rise in the coming days because of the excessive rainfall from Hurricane Milton. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel) A linesman contractor for Duke Energy works on power lines along Forest City Road in Orlando. Friday, Oct. 11, 2024. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel) Floodwaters from the Little Wekiva River provide a still reflection of a home on Little Wekiva Road in the Spring Oaks neighborhood in Altamonte Springs, Fla., Friday, Oct. 11, 2024. Central Florida rivers are forecast to crest in the coming days because of the excessive rainfall from Hurricane Milton. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel) A Spring Oaks resident checks out the rising floodwaters from the Little Wekiva River on Spring Oaks Blvd. in his neighborhood in Altamonte Springs, Fla., Friday, Oct. 11, 2024. Central Florida rivers are forecast to crest in the coming days because of the excessive rainfall from Hurricane Milton. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel) “Belle Vista’s Yard of the Month” sign atop the debris and discarded household goods from hurricane Helene, are once-again drenched by the rains of hurricane Milton, in the Belle Vista home of Jeff and Andrea DeNight, in St. Pete Beach, on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. ..(Ricardo Ramirez Buxeda/ Orlando Sentinel) The domed roof of Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla. is damaged in the aftermath of hurricane Milton, on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. ..(Ricardo Ramirez Buxeda/ Orlando Sentinel) A boat, thrown from its dock, sits in front of a home on Norsota Way in Siesta Key on Friday, Oct. 11, 2024. Hurricane Milton made landfall on the island, located adjacent from Sarasota late Wednesday evening. (Steven Walker/Orlando Sentinel) An aerial view of Tropicana Field’s shredded roof in downtown St. Petersburg, Fla., in the wake of Hurricane Milton early Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. (Max Chesnes/Tampa Bay Times via AP) A traffic light is down on Orange Avenue in Downtown Orlando in the aftermath of Hurricane Milton on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. (Kevin Spear/Orlando Sentinel) Boats rest in a yard after they were washed ashore when Hurricane Milton passed through the area on Oct. 10, 2024, in Punta Gorda, Florida. The storm made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane in the Siesta Key area of Florida, causing damage and flooding throughout Central Florida. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images) Boats at Marina Jack following Hurricane on Milton Oct. 10, 2024 in Sarasota, Florida. The storm made landfall at Siesta Key. (Photo by Sean Rayford/Getty Images) Houses lie in ruins after sustaining tornado and flood damage from Hurricane Milton, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024, in Matlacha, Fla. (AP Photo/Marta Lavandier) Show Caption1 of 12Spring Oaks resident Earline Gonzales talks about the rising waters from the Little Wekiva River in her flooded neighborhood in Altamonte Springs, Friday, Oct. 11, 2024. Central Florida rivers are forecast to rise in the coming days because of the excessive rainfall from Hurricane Milton. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel) ExpandIn total, Helene and Milton were responsible for at least 250 deaths and more than $120 billion in damage within the United States. After Milton moved through Central Florida, an Orange County man died after apparently stepping on a downed power line while clearing debris in his yard. He is believed to be the only Orlando metropolitan area fatality of the storm, which killed at least 17 across the state. Helene was blamed for at least 18 deaths in Florida.
Last month, weather experts at Colorado State University forecast an above-average storm season this year with 17 named storms, of which nine will become hurricanes. There is a better than 50% chance a major hurricane will strike the United States.
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Even though weather forecasts show a season likely not as busy as last year, experts said the public — especially those living near coastal areas of Florida and the United States — should remain vigilant. The Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.
The news conference was held at Jefferson Parrish Emergency Operations Center in Gretna, La., just outside New Orleans, to grimly mark the upcoming 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. The powerful storm barreled into the southeast Louisiana coast as a Category 3 on Aug. 29, 2005 and was responsible for an estimated 1,883 fatalities around New Orleans and millions of people were left homeless in the city and along the Gulf Coast.
“Since this devastation we’ve made incredible strides” in forecasting and preparing for storms,” Graham said. “We’ve really gotten better.”
The loss of life and property damage was heightened by breaks in the levees that separate New Orleans from Lake Pontchartrain. At least 80% of New Orleans was under flood waters on Aug. 31. With more than $160 billion in damages, Katrina is the costliest hurricane to ever hit the United States, surpassing the record previously held by Hurricane Andrew from 1992.
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