Bilbao plays host to an all-English UEFA Europa League final on Wednesday. Both teams have endured poor seasons in general, but one player has starred: Bruno Fernandes.
In many ways, it’s been a season of almost unimaginable disappointment for Manchester United. While 2023-24 was also rather poor, the idea that they’d ultimately finish the 2024-25 Premier League campaign in potentially 16th or 17th place without even reaching 40 points would’ve been verging on laughable back in August.
But here we are. They have one Premier League match left this season, at home to Aston Villa, and another defeat would see them end the campaign with 39 points, failing to even reach the 40-point mark that’s mostly been seen as the magic number for teams aiming to avoid relegation. It’s a tally that has seen six teams previously relegated.
Whatever happens on the final day of the Premier League season, 2024-25 is already guaranteed to yield Man Utd’s lowest points tally in a league season since at least 1973-74 (based on three points for a win), and should they fail to beat Villa, it will be their worst total since 1930-31 (29).
Ruben Amorim has so far failed miserably at getting United back on course domestically since his November arrival from Sporting CP. He spoke last week of being “embarrassed” that they’d won just six of his 25 league games – Friday’s 1-0 defeat to Chelsea made it six wins from 26.
It also left Amorim with a points-per-game average of just 0.92, which is – incredibly – among the 27 worst manager averages in Premier League history of those that have taken charge of at least 25 matches.
And yet, United could end the season with a European trophy and UEFA Champions League qualification as they target their second Europa League title in Wednesday’s final against Tottenham Hotspur.
If they do beat Spurs in Bilbao, some will probably say they’re the least deserving winners of a major trophy in recent memory; others will insist they’ve been incredibly lucky.
Both might be true, who’s to say? But if there’s one player in either squad on Wednesday whose season warrants some success, it’s Bruno Fernandes.
“Where would Man United be without Bruno Fernandes?” – it’s a question you’ve almost certainly heard or even uttered yourself this season, and it simultaneously outlines how poor United have been collectively and how crucial he is.
It’s even possible to quantify his impact, to a degree.
Fernandes’ goals and assists in the Premier League this term have been worth 12 points to United, 30.8% of their overall total (39); take 12 away from their total and they’re just two points above Leicester City in the final relegation place ahead of the last game of the season.
It’s obviously a slightly crude and reductive calculation as it assumes another player wouldn’t have provided similar input if in the team instead of Fernandes, but it still gives some context to his influence.
Similarly, in the Europa League his hat-trick was decisive in the 5-2 aggregate win over Real Sociedad, his cool penalty in extra-time against Lyon got United back in the tie, and he had a hand in at least one goal in each of the semi-final clashes with Athletic Club.
bilbao or bust
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1 week ago Ryan BensonSure, others have played key roles at certain moments as well, but it’s probably fair to suggest United wouldn’t be in the Europa League final without Fernandes’ more sustained contributions.
But there’s more to football than just goals and assists, and Fernandes is the embodiment of that.
The graphic below highlights Fernandes’ importance to United with respect to build-up involvement, chance creation and shot taking – he is far and away their most important player.
Although he’s received pelters over the years with respect to his leadership, attitude and for not being “a fighter”, according to Roy Keane, Fernandes’ work ethic should – by now – be beyond question.
Among the 316 players to have played at least 900 minutes in the Premier League this season, Fernandes is the only one to average at least 2.0 tackles (2.4), 1.5 open-play chances created (1.8), 2.0 shots (2.8) and 30 pressures (32.0) on a per-90-minute basis.
It’s also worth noting that his availability has been remarkable, with his 24,474 minutes played in all competitions at club level since 1 February 2020 more than any other player for teams across the top five European leagues, and nearly 3,000 more than any other outfielder.
Working hard doesn’t necessarily mean working right, but in this case it is at least evidence of him not just being a presence on the ball. Nevertheless, on the ball in the final third is where they are most reliant on him.
Fernandes has pretty much shouldered the creative burden ever since he joined United in early 2020, and 2024-25 has been no different.
His 8.0 expected goals (xG) assisted this season accounts for 16.6% of United’s overall non-penalty xG figure – ranking second for xG assisted as a proportion of the team’s total non-penalty xG is Amad Diallo on 9.6% (4.6 xG assisted).
This is Fernandes’ fifth full campaign for the club, and it’ll be the fifth time he’s provided comfortably the greatest share of the team’s non-penalty xG. He actually topped the Premier League charts in that respect for 2023-24 (22.7%), 2022-23 (25.2%) and 2020-21 (21.9%); this term he’s likely to rank third.
Either way, in each of his five full seasons, he’s been one of the top three most-relied-upon players in the Premier League for creativity.
His eight goals and nine assists in the Premier League this term have been supplemented to give him 36 goal involvements (19 goals, 17 assists) in all competitions. The only player from the top five European leagues to better that for a single club in 2024-25 is Mohamed Salah (55).
It’s also already Fernandes’ second-best return in a single season for United despite the team currently being at their worst over that period.
But the fact is, United have rarely hit the heights befitting a player like Fernandes, otherwise the Europa League wouldn’t have become ‘his’ competition.
No one in its history (since the 2009 rebrand) can match his 19 assists or 46 goal involvements, and he ranks joint third for goals (27), though this has only come to fruition because United have struggled in – or not qualified for – the Champions League.
That’s the stage he belongs on, and if he’s to perform on it again next season, he might just have to make sure of it himself.
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If Any Man Utd Player Deserves Success in Dismal 2024-25 Season, It’s Bruno Fernandes Opta Analyst.
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