With a trip to the Stanley Cup Final on the line, the NHL’s conference finals are set to get underway. We’re breaking down both matchups and revealing our projection model’s picks.
They’re gone. They’re all gone.
The Winnipeg Jets, who led the NHL in points this season, were knocked out by Mikko Rantanen and the Dallas Stars in the Western Conference semifinals. The Eastern Conference-best Washington Capitals and Alex Ovechkin? Eliminated in Round 2 by the Carolina Panthers.
How about the teams that finished second in each conference? Also gone fishing. The Toronto Maple Leafs fell to Andrei Svechnikov and the Florida Panthers in a seven-game thriller, while the Vegas Golden Knights were bounced by the Edmonton Oilers in five games.
So the NHL playoffs have gone all … well, NHL playoffs.
What’s left in the conference finals are the Oilers, who finished sixth out West in the regular season, facing the third-place Stars. And the Panthers, who are the defending champion but finished fifth in the East, taking on the fourth-place Hurricanes.
Will we get a rematch of last year’s Stanley Cup Final when the Panthers defeated the Oilers in seven games for their first title in franchise history?
Our projection model gives us data-backed predictions for which playoff teams continue to march on to the conference finals. The model is based on each team’s TRACR, win-loss record, strength of schedule, and more.
TRACR normalizes team performance based on how good a team is relative to league averages, using advanced metrics and other factors on both offense and defense to calculate how many goals a team is expected to score and allow each game. It then compares these values to the league-average club (lower is better for defense).
(Key: A-Atlantic Division; M-Metropolitan Division; C-Central Division; P-Pacific Division; WC-Wild Card)
Western Conference Finals
Dallas Stars (D2) vs. Edmonton Oilers (D3)
Regular-Season Record: Stars 50-26-6/Oilers 48-29-5 Regular-Season Series: Stars 2-1 Offensive TRACR Rank: Stars No. 8/Oilers No. 6 Defensive TRACR: Panthers Stars No. 10/Oilers No. 12 Overall TRACR: Stars No. 9/Oilers No. 10 Projected Winner (Win Probability): Stars (52.0%)Trending: This is a rematch of the 2024 Western Conference finals, which the Oilers won in six games, although our model likes Dallas’ chances at payback this time around.
Edmonton star Connor McDavid led the way with three goals and a team-high 10 points in the 2024 East finals. He’s produced at least a point in nine of his 11 games this postseason (three goals, 17 points) and has scored four times with nine assists over his last eight meetings with Dallas, going back to last postseason.
McDavid’s teammate Zach Hyman, who has three goals and five assists in 11 games this postseason, had a combined three goals and an assist in two March meetings with Dallas.
Dallas, however, has perhaps the biggest star of this year’s playoffs in Mikko Rantanen. He leads all NHL players with nine goals and 19 points heading into the conference finals. He also has two goals and seven assists in his last seven meetings with Edmonton.
Stars left wing Jason Robertson hasn’t scored this postseason after missing the first round due to injury, but he was a thorn in the Oilers’ side during the regular season with four goals and two assists in the three meetings.
Dallas should have a big advantage when it comes to the power play. After ranking fifth in power-play goal differential (plus-14) during the regular season, the Stars are second (+6) during the playoffs. Roope Hintz is tied for the posteason lead with three power-play goals.
The Oilers were tied for 13th in that category (+6) during the regular season, but they’ve struggled with six goals and 11 allowed in the postseason.
Eastern Conference Finals
Florida Panthers (D3) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (D2)
Regular-Season Record: Panthers 47-31-4/Hurricanes 47-30-5 Regular-Season Series: Panthers 2-1 Offensive TRACR: Panthers No. 5/Hurricanes No. 4 Defensive TRACR: Panthers No. 3/Hurricanes No. 2 Overall TRACR: Panthers No. 4/Hurricanes No. 2 Projected Winner: Hurricanes (50.1%)Trending: One look at all the TRACR rankings and it’s easy to see why this matchup could be a coin flip. Our projection model agrees, giving the very slight nod to the Hurricanes.
The Hurricanes have won all five of their home playoff games this year, but the Panthers have scored 33 goals in their seven road playoff games for an NHL-high average of 4.71 goals per game. They’ve even tied the NHL record for most road games with six or more goals in one playoff year (New York Islanders, 1983) with four.
Keep an eye on Florida’s Sam Bennett, who had two goals in the three games against Carolina during the regular season. He also has six goals and three assists in 12 games this postseason. Panthers center Anton Lundell had two goals and two assists in the regular-season series.
Matthew Tkachuk scored three goals in the Panthers’ first three playoff games, but he hasn’t scored in the past nine games. Tkachuk had a team-high 83 shots on goal in the Panthers’ 24 playoff games last year (3.5 per game), but his total of 17 shots in 12 playoff games this year (1.4 per game) is tied for 10th on the club.
While Hurricanes left wing Andrei Svechnikov has eight goals in these playoffs, he has only three in 25 career meetings with Florida. The Panthers poured in 10 goals against Spencer Martin in their two wins over Carolina during the regular season, but the goaltender won’t be around to kick around in this series (Frederick Andersen is 7-2 in the playoffs, with Pyotr Kochetkov earning the team’s other win).
Florida has won 12 of the past 17 meetings, including a four-game sweep of Carolina in the 2023 Eastern Conference finals.
Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team.
NHL Playoff Predictions: Which Teams Will Advance to the Stanley Cup Final? Opta Analyst.
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