Trump and Putin’s call opens the door to talks, but in Ukraine the fighting will go on ...Middle East

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In a post on Truth Social, Trump said that the Vatican, “as represented by the Pope, has stated that it would be very interested in hosting the negotiations. Let the process begin!”

Prior to the call, the White House said that Trump has grown “frustrated” with the conflict and planned a separate call with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy in hope of making progress toward a ceasefire in the war.

Yet the fact that the call is taking place at all is evidence that a rickety stop-start peace process aimed at ending the three-year-old war in Ukraine is underway. It may not be making much visible progress, but is in sharp contrast to the previous period of non-diplomacy under President Joe Biden when there was almost no US bid to end the fighting.

Since Ukraine’s survival depends on US military support and Russia would like an overall deal with Washington involving issues outside the Ukraine war, Washington has considerable leverage on both sides – leverage it is not afraid to use.

A permanent US walk-away from its peace effort is unlikely, but the prospect of this happening is intimidating for all parties in different ways. Putin is eager for success in Ukraine, but his overall relationship with the US is also crucial. He will not want to throw away the benefits of having a US president who is willing to talk to him, and who treats Russia respectfully as a great power.

The fact that the fragile efforts now underway have not achieved very much is not too surprising. All negotiations to end military conflicts, such as those during the Korean War and the Vietnam War, were lengthy, complex and took place while fighting was still going on. Even ending a low-level war in Northern Ireland took prolonged negotiations.

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It would therefore appear to be much in Russia’s interests to fight a long war and use its superior resources to gradually wear down Ukraine. Putin is wary about agreeing to a prolonged ceasefire that would devalue his strongest card in the conflict. Trump and Vance said as much – and they will have seen US intelligence reports on the military prospects of each side – during their famous row with Zelensky in the Oval Office.

The heavy machine gun gave the advantage to the defence in 1914-18 and the mass use of drones is having the same inhibiting impact on attackers in Ukraine. By the mass use of drones, the Ukrainian army has fought the Russians to a standstill, though this stalemate might not be permanent. In other words, Putin may not be certain that Russian forces might win a decisive victory in a prolonged slog with Ukraine.

With neither Russia nor Ukraine having so far gained the upper hand in the war, the likelihood is for diplomacy and fighting to go on side by side.

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