Two things can be true at the same time for a team like Ohio State.
One is that the 12-team College Football Playoff has allowed for more grace for everyone, including defending champions. Unlike when Ohio State previously won a title in 2014 and it was left out of the Playoff as an 11-1 team in 2015, it can now lose multiple games and still get back to the same place where last season’s title run began. That is, hosting a first-round Playoff game.
Another thing that’s true is that repeating will still be extremely difficult. In some ways, beating 3-4 elite teams at the end of a repeat run could be too significant a hurdle to overcome. Playing 32-33 games in 2 seasons is a lot, especially when the expectation is to win all of those games convincingly. Granted, there are plenty of new faces in Year 2 of that potential repeat run. Ohio State is outside the top 100 in percentage of returning production after it had a whopping 14 players selected in the 2025 NFL Draft.
What does that mean for the defending champs? Does it mean that it’ll come up short of being the 4th program to repeat in the 21st century? Or will it benefit from having slightly less pressure in the regular season and flip the switch in the Playoff like it did last year? That’s the question that’ll loom large in Columbus in 2025.
A few things are worth noting before we break down individual Playoff paths. One is that while we’re still in the 12-team era, I’m anticipating a change in 2025. I believe that we’ll get rid of the stipulation that the 4 byes/top-4 seeds will go to the 4 highest-ranked conference champs. One year in, I predict that all parties will get on board with changing that. These rankings, which I’ll roll out over the next 2 weeks, will reflect that anticipated change.
In other words, I won’t try to confuse you with seeding. This will just be based on where they’ll show up in the final Playoff poll. Just in case you forgot what Playoff field entails, here’s a refresher:
5 highest-ranked conference champs 7 at-large teams Seeds 1-4 get a first-round bye Seeds 5-8 get a home Playoff game in the first round Seeds 9-12 get a road Playoff game in the first roundDoes that all sound good? Good.
Here’s the projected 12-team field so far:
No. 12 Boise State No. 11 Louisville No. 10 Texas Tech No. 9 Illinois No. 8 Alabama No. 7 TexasLet’s continue with 6-seed Ohio State:
Why the Playoff path exists
Well, it’s not difficult to understand why the Playoff path is about as open as it can be for a program like Ohio State. Besides the fact that we just saw Ohio State win a title with an all-time great postseason turnaround, let’s remember a couple of things.
One is that they’ve got the 2 best returning players in the sport in Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs. It’s not basketball, but that’s a pretty good place to start a potential repeat run. Let’s also remember that Ohio State hasn’t lost 3 games in a season — that includes the postseason — since that weird Luke Fickell year after Jim Tressel’s resignation back in 2011. In the 11 years of the Playoff era, the Buckeyes have only entered the postseason with multiple losses on 3 occasions. Nobody in college football has had a higher floor during that time than Ohio State.
In the 12-team era, the Buckeyes feel like the safest yearly bet to make the field. Why? Last year was Ohio State’s first season with multiple losses in conference play since that aforementioned 2011 season, and yet, there still wasn’t any debate about whether the Buckeyes would make the field after the devastating loss to Michigan.
While we can certainly discuss whether decorated expected starter Julian Sayin will be as clutch as Will Howard was, and whether Ohio State’s turnover in the trenches will be its undoing, anyone who fails to acknowledge Ohio State’s obvious path to the Playoff is probably wearing several pieces of Michigan apparel.
A 10-2 regular season is a fair, but conservative, projection for the Buckeyes.
The potential roadblock
I know what everyone is thinking, so I’ll just come out and say it. Ohio State’s potential Playoff roadblock is obvious.
We endure another pandemic, Kevin Warren gets fired by the Chicago Bears, he returns to his post as Big Ten commissioner, he goes rogue by canceling the Big Ten’s season and Ohio State is unable to play tackle football in 2025. And honestly, that might not even be enough to block a Playoff path. It wasn’t enough in 2020.
So what would a potential 9-3, Playoff-less season actually look like for Ohio State? Well, it’s gotta include a loss against Texas in the season opener. Maybe a new-look Ohio State offensive line is in over its head against that loaded Texas defense, and Sayin spends too much of that game running for his life instead of finding Smith or Carnell Tate. One would think that a 9-3 path would also have to include James Franklin beating Ohio State without the aid of a perfect bounce on a blocked field goal. Or perhaps lightning strikes twice and that happens again.
If that’s not realistic, perhaps Ohio State suffers a stunning upset against a team like Washington, which hasn’t lost at home since the Jimmy Lake era. Maybe trendy preseason Playoff pick Illinois goes full 2007-mode on Ohio State and stuns the Buckeyes in Columbus by muddying things up with a Michigan-like performance.
And then, we all know what would await the 9-2 Buckeyes in Ann Arbor. Ohio State would have all the pressure in the world to avoid its 5th consecutive loss to Michigan.
Is that likely? Even the biggest Matt Patricia skeptic can admit that a 3-loss Ohio State team that misses the Playoff feels more like Michigan fan fiction than reality.
Odds that they win a Playoff game
I might be a touch low at 80.7%, especially after what we witnessed last year against Tennessee in that first-round game.
That number isn’t at 95% out of respect for Louisville coach Jeff Brohm, who would be a fun coach to watch with a “nothing to lose” opportunity. Brohm was in a nothing-to-lose spot against Ohio State back in 2018 when Rondale Moore ran all over the Buckeyes to fuel Purdue’s upset victory. And with all the pieces that Louisville has to work with after a nice transfer portal haul, it would be foolish to completely dismiss that team after it went into Clemson and dominated the Tigers late last season.
But let’s be realistic here. Do we really think that Ohio State’s title defense is going to end at the hands of … Louisville? I don’t. I’d still trust that by late-December, Brian Hartline will have picked up some things as a first-time play-caller. Ohio State will have its backfield rotation sorted out. Sayin will be well-seasoned to handle those pressure spots. That new-look front 7 will find those alphas.
That’s a lot of blind faith, but if there’s anybody who has earned it, it’s Ohio State. The Buckeyes will have a chance to defend their title in the quarterfinal round. If that comes on the heels of another dominant first-round showing, you can already picture what that storyline will be.
Ohio State might just do it again.
Predicting the Playoff will continue on Sunday with No. 5 … an ACC power.
Predicting the 2025 Playoff: No. 6 Ohio State Saturday Down South.
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