Ahead of Saturday’s FA Cup final between Crystal Palace and Manchester City, we identify five key elements that could be decisive at Wembley.
All eyes turn to Wembley Stadium on Saturday as English football comes to a standstill but for the FA Cup final between Crystal Palace and Manchester City.
While City are hoping to salvage something from a disappointing season, victory for Palace would make 2024-25 arguably the most significant campaign in their entire history.
Here, we’ve outlined five facets that may impact whether the FA Cup trophy returns to the Etihad Stadium or heads to Selhurst Park for the very first time…
Will Guardiola Call Glasner’s Bluff?
Most people would’ve raised an eyebrow and questioned Oliver Glasner’s grip on reality if they’d just seen the scoreline before hearing his comments after Palace’s most recent meeting with City.
Palace lost 5-2 at the Etihad Stadium about a month ago. After the game, Glasner told reporters: “I said to Pep afterwards, if we meet again, you can’t play this system because we will solve it.”
It’s a pretty brazen claim for a manager who’d just lost 5-2 – only, for a significant chunk of the first half, there looked to be only one winner, and it wasn’t Guardiola.
Palace were 2-0 up and then had a third disallowed for a close offside call just before the half-hour mark. City subsequently fought back, ultimately overpowering their visitors in the second period having got back on level terms by the interval.
Glasner’s belief post-match seemed to stem from some specific elements of City’s shape.
Over the past few months, Guardiola has often asked his wide defenders to act like more conventional attacking full-backs; so, rather than inverting in possession, they’ve remained wide and looked to push the opposition’s full-backs further up the pitch.
Palace and their back three/five are well set up to counter this because the wing-backs are so energetic, and then they’ve the numbers and tactical discipline in central areas to both remain compact and be ready to spring forward quickly.
There were times when on the offensive in that first half that Palace’s attack was almost a horizontal line of five players. Eberechi Eze and Ismaïla Sarr would break forward to support Jean-Philippe Mateta centrally, while marathon man Daniel Muñoz and Tyrick Mitchell would be advancing up the wings. It was a brave approach, and make no mistake, City did look uncomfortable at times.
But is Guardiola really going to play the same way if he knows Glasner essentially wants him to set up in such a manner?
Or does Guardiola consider how City enjoyed one of their most fruitful attacking displays of the season in that scenario?
Do Wing-Backs Hold the Key to Crystal Palace Success?
Despite two very different setups in possession, this FA Cup final will be a battle between two of the Premier League sides with the most attacking full-backs.
Guardiola’s side have seen their right- and left-sided defenders average the highest touch location in the English top flight this season at 58.5 metres from their own goal, and Palace average the third highest at 57.1m.
The most intriguing battle will be between Palace’s right wing-back, Muñoz, and whoever is selected to play at left-back for City at Wembley.
Although Joško Gvardiol started on the left in the 0-0 draw at Southampton, Nico O’Reilly has played in their previous seven games, including in the 5-2 win over Palace at the Etihad Stadium last month.
Although clearly an exciting talent, O’Reilly’s inexperience may give Muñoz an opportunity to cause City some problems with his direct, endless running.
Go Deeper:
Premier LeagueBuilt Different: Crystal Palace’s Relentless Roadrunner Daniel Muñoz Might be the Premier League’s Most Unique Wing-Back
1 month ago Ryan BensonMuñoz has covered the third-most distance in the Premier League this season (367.2km) – more than any other defender – and tops the competition rankings for total sprints (850). Only Fulham’s Antonee Robinson (16.1km) has covered more ground while sprinting than Muñoz (15.8km).
The Eagles have deployed wing-backs in 96% of their Premier League minutes this season, 22 percentage points more than any other side. Averaging the highest touch position on the pitch of any regular right-sided defender this season (58.6m), Muñoz has made the most of his attacking freedom in Palace’s five-man defence.
The Colombian is their leading chance creator in open play this season across all competitions (53), while regular left-sided wing-back Mitchell ranks fourth (43).
The two wing-backs have not only been integral to Palace’s chance creation but are key in winning the ball back high up the pitch. No defenders have applied more pressures resulting in a turnover in the middle and attacking thirds of the pitch combined than Mitchell (78) and Muñoz (80).
Aside from moments in the first half-hour at the Etihad in April, the two previous games between Palace and Man City this season have seen Guardiola’s side mostly stifle the threat of the Eagles wing-backs, with the pair creating just one chance apiece. Glasner will hope it’s third time lucky on Saturday.
Will Crystal Palace’s Out-of-Possession Tactics Cause Problems?
Unlike Man City, Crystal Palace aren’t a team who prioritise keeping possession for long periods. The Eagles’ average just 43.2% possession in the Premier League this season, the fourth lowest figure, while City top the charts at 61.6%.
This final will undoubtedly see City hold possession for the majority of the game, but it’s the work that Palace put in off the ball that could be vital to any upset.
Glasner’s side work hard out of possession with intense pressing, and they display high fitness levels with their running off the ball.
The two Premier League games this season in which City faced the most pressures in the middle third of the pitch were against Palace, and the Eagles could have got more than just one point from those two games with a little more luck on their side.
Palace top the Premier League charts for total pressures (7,876) and pressures in the middle third (4,121) this season, while they are also the top team for total turnovers after a pressure (1,064) and in the middle third (469).
They are the only team in the Premier League this season to make over half of their pressures in a single third of the pitch (52% in the middle third).
Unlike City, who press much higher and top the Premier League rankings for high turnovers (341) and proportion of pressures in the final third (40%), Palace are comfortable sitting deeper and looking to get in behind the opposition’s defence with the pace of their attackers.
Their attacking trio of Sarr (590), Mateta (507) and Eze (485) are all among the top six players in the Premier League this season for pressures in the middle third, working hard to win the ball back and spring attacks from around the halfway line.
Only Nottingham Forest (2.05 metres/second), Bournemouth (2.02) and Everton (1.92) have progressed play upfield in open-play sequences faster than Palace (1.87) this term. Similarly, their average open-play sequence time of 7.9 seconds is only shorter than that of Nuno Espírito Santo’s team (7.6).
Furthermore, just four sides have attempted more shots in transition – defined as when a team have recently won the ball and attempt a shot against an opposition who have not had time to reorganise their defensive shape – than Palace (168) in the Premier League this season.
Across their two top-flight meetings with City in 2024-25, 42% (8/19) of Palace’s shots were in transition. Expect more of the same at Wembley.
Haaland Out to End Finals Drought
When Erling Haaland suffered an ankle injury at the end of March, the estimated seven-week layoff meant it’d be touch-and-go for him to feature in the FA Cup final if City made it that far.
He returned last weekend in the draw with Southampton having been out for six weeks, thus providing him with some match action ahead of this week’s trip to Wembley.
Exactly how fit and sharp he is remains debatable because he wasn’t really involved enough at the weekend to tell. City dominated the ball against Saints and registered plenty of attempts, but Haaland accounted for just one of their 26 shots and had to make do with largely poor service.
Nevertheless, the chances are he’ll start this weekend. Clearly, he’ll be desperate to – though his record at Wembley isn’t exactly outstanding.
He’s played there five times for City, in two finals and a semi-final of the FA Cup, plus two Community Shield appearances; he didn’t score in any of them despite playing 402 minutes.
Across those games, he only managed six shots that amounted to a somewhat underwhelming 1.17 expected goals (xG).
This record stretches beyond just Wembley, however. Including competitions such as the Community Shield, UEFA Super Cup and DFL-Supercup, Haaland hasn’t scored in a final since netting twice for Borussia Dortmund in a 4-1 win over RB Leipzig to clinch the DFB-Pokal in May 2021.
That’s a run of eight showpiece games without a goal. So, can he finally break his duck for City this weekend?
Does ‘Experience’ Count for Anything?
It might not be the most glamorous topic for analysis, but there’s an argument City’s familiarity – and Palace’s lack of it – with these sorts of occasions could have an impact.
But just how acquainted with finals are Guardiola’s side?
Well, before 2024-25, City played at least one final – excluding the Community Shield – in all but two of Guardiola’s first eight campaigns at the helm.
Some might even suggest the Community Shield is worthy of inclusion, though. We don’t tend to consider it a major competition, but they are often pretty competitive affairs, they attract significant crowds and there is a trophy up for grabs. Suffice to say, if Palace were playing in the next one, they’d take it seriously.
If you do include the Community Shield, then, City have played a final in all but one season (2016-17, Guardiola’s first) since 2009-10.
Palace, on the other hand, have only previously competed in the final of what would generally be considered major competitions on two occasions in their entire history prior to this weekend.
They reached the FA Cup final in 1990 and again in 2016, losing to Manchester United on both occasions.
Having said that, they have been promoted to the top flight via the play-offs – thus requiring them to win a final – three times in the Premier League era. They also lost in the 1995-96 Division One play-off final.
Nevertheless, there’s no question City’s squad is far more used to these occasions than their Palace counterparts; of course, that also extends to much greater pressure on Man City.
Palace will go into the match with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Win and it’ll be the greatest day in the club’s history.
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