WINNIPEG — Trailing 3-1 in their best-of-seven series with the Dallas Stars, the Winnipeg Jets have a daunting mountain to climb.
Since the NHL’s inception, only 32 teams have come back to win a facing a 3-1 series deficit. Better yet, a miraculous comeback would require this team to win a road playoff game — which they haven’t done since 2019 (excluding the COVID bubble post-season).
Granted, nothing about this season for the reigning Presidents’ Trophy winners has been easy. Or predictable.
They wouldn’t even be here if it weren’t for the “Manitoba Miracle” in Game 7 against the St. Louis Blues.
Nor would they have had home ice in these Stanley Cup playoffs if they weren’t able to fend off the red-hot Stars at the tail-end of the regular season.
“We’ve dealt with adversity all year,” Jets defenceman Dylan DeMelo told reporters ahead of Game 5. “Nobody said it’d be easy, obviously we’d love to be up 3-1, or (tied) 2-2, but we’re not. So we’ve got to deal with what the situation is.”
And right now, the situation, or rather, their game, needs a serious tune-up.
By now, we know that it’s unrealistic to expect this team to edge out a 2-1 playoff win. Coming off two road losses where they were outscored a combined 8-3, all eyes are on Winnipeg’s offence.
Their power play has been virtually unrecognizable — converting on 15.8 per cent of their post-season man-advantages, a far cry from their regular-season output (28.9) — and for all the zone time they’ve sustained during five-on-five, they’ve hardly tested Jake Oettinger.
“Life at this time of year, it’s got to be hard on the goaltender,” Jets coach Scott Arniel said. “(Oettinger) can’t see those shots that come from up above. And then again it’s those second chances, those hack and whack and chop (opportunities) and somehow will the puck into the back of the net.”
According to Natural Stat Trick, only 43 per cent of Winnipeg’s high-danger shot attempts this series have hit the net — that’s the lowest of any team in Round 2.
“You look at every game around the league for the most part, there’s the odd nice goal, but most of them are pretty greasy goals,” Jets defenceman Luke Schenn told reporters.
Back To The Basics
As of Thursday morning, Winnipeg is rolling out the same four forward lines they’ve run all year.
Mind you, Arniel had these lines skating together ahead of Game 4 before changing things up right before puck drop.
He placed Alex Iafallo back on the top line – where he filled in admirably during Gabriel Vilardi’s absence — slotted Nino Niederreiter alongside Vladislav Namestnikov and Cole Perfetti, and placed Nikolaj Ehlers alongside Adam Lowry.
History would suggest that Arniel will keep that top line of Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor and Vilardi intact.
The middle-six is where things get interesting, particularly concerning Lowry and Ehlers.
Ehlers, who has silenced the chatter regarding his lack of playoff production, recording five points in six games, is going to be an X-factor in Game 5. He’s Winnipeg’s most dangerous offensive weapon beyond line one, and the cold-hard truth is, he plays his best hockey with Lowry.
In 25 minutes of ice time together, Lowry and Ehlers have posted a 79.7 per cent expected goals-for percentage during five-on-five play. In 47 minutes without Lowry, Ehlers and his linemates have only controlled 38.1 per cent of the expected goals share.
Don’t be surprised if we see the Lowry-Ehlers duo reunited at some point in Game 5.
Arniel never hesitates to reach for the line blender.
Watch the Stanley Cup Playoffs on SportsnetThe NHL’s best are ready to battle for the right to hoist the Stanley Cup. Watch every game of the Stanley Cup Playoffs on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+ beginning on April 19.
Broadcast Schedule
Projected Lineup
Connor – Scheifele – Vilardi Ehlers – Namestnikov – PerfettiNiederreiter – Lowry – Appleton Tanev – Barron – Iafallo
Morrissey – DeMelo Samberg – Pionk Fleury – Schenn
HellebuyckComrie
More from Sportsnet Presidents’ Trophy-winning Jets maintain belief in face of elimination32 Thoughts Podcast: Odds are not in Jets’ favour
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Jets Notebook: ‘Got to deal with’ daunting odds in must-win Game 5 )
Also on site :