Absence makes the heart grow fonder. At least that’s what they say. I’ll ask an Alabama fan in August how badly they miss the Playoff after taking a 1-year hiatus in 2024.
No, Alabama didn’t get robbed. Beat 1 of those 6-6 teams and nobody has that conversation. Instead, Alabama took a 1-year break from the Playoff in the first year of the post-Nick Saban era. You know. In case you haven’t heard.
But yes, I called that a “1-year break” for a reason. Alabama should be back after tying its longest streak without a Playoff berth. That’s right. Consecutive Playoff misses haven’t been a thing in Tuscaloosa yet, so perhaps the Tide can’t really speak on whether absence truly does make the heart grow fonder. There’s no reason why this Alabama team should miss out on the CFP (more on that in a bit).
A few things are worth noting before we break down individual Playoff paths. One is that while we’re still in the 12-team era, I’m anticipating a change in 2025. I believe that we’ll get rid of the stipulation that the 4 byes/top-4 seeds will go to the 4 highest-ranked conference champs. One year in, I predict that all parties will get on board with changing that. These rankings, which I’ll roll out over the next 2 weeks, will reflect that anticipated change.
In other words, I won’t try to confuse you with seeding. This will just be based on where they’ll show up in the final Playoff poll. Just in case you forgot what Playoff field entails, here’s a refresher:
5 highest-ranked conference champs 7 at-large teams Seeds 1-4 get a 1st-Round bye Seeds 5-8 get a home Playoff game in the 1st Round Seeds 9-12 get a road Playoff game in the 1st RoundDoes that all sound good? Good.
Here’s the projected 12-team field so far:
No. 12 Boise State No. 11 Louisville No. 10 Texas Tech No. 9 IllinoisLet’s continue with 8-seed Alabama:
Why the Playoff path exists
It exists in a much more obvious way because Ryan Grubb reunited with Kalen DeBoer. Period. It’s the single-most important assistant hire of the offseason. Grubb finally came to Alabama on the program’s 3rd pursuit of him in as many years, and what that means for the Tide offense is that the floor should be much higher than it was last year. The DeBoer-Grubb duo works because the latter knows how to run it better than anyone. That gives a talented, but inexperienced quarterback room a chance to blossom in a way that the unique, but flawed, Jalen Milroe couldn’t.
Alabama’s offense should have a bevy of options at wide receiver, most notably the best wideout in the sport not named “Jeremiah Smith.” Ryan Williams, now 18 years old, should take flight in this offense in the way that Rome Odunze did at Washington in 2023. The return of Germie Bernard was significant, as was the transfer portal addition of Isaiah Horton from Miami. This might not be a vintage Alabama ground attack, but the pieces are in place for this to be a better, more consistent passing attack than we saw the last 2 years. That should open up more running lanes than we saw in 2024.
And defensively, that group enters 2025 as the more proven unit. The returns of LT Overton, Deontae Lawson, Tim Keenan III and Domani Jackson will be monumental after that group turned things around post-Vanderbilt loss. Alabama ended up having its best scoring defense since 2017, which was about all Kane Wommack could’ve asked for in Year 1. That group wasn’t responsible for the losses against Tennessee, Oklahoma or Michigan. It should be the backbone of Alabama’s Playoff push in 2025.
The schedule is by no means a cakewalk. From Week 5-11, the Tide will face 5 SEC teams that won at least 9 games, 3 of which are road games. Alabama could be an underdog at Georgia, but outside of that matchup against a coach that’s 1-6 against the Tide, it wouldn’t be surprising if DeBoer’s squad was favored in 11 games. Take that for what it is. Alabama lost as a double-digit favorite on 3 occasions last year. A dud showing could be in play again.
But even with that over/under of 9.5 regular-season victories, 10-2 should be the expectation. Anything less than that, and Alabama shouldn’t be crying foul about its Playoff path.
The potential roadblock
It’s a no-excuses offense with Grubb on board, but if Alabama is going to have more dud losses in 2025, it’ll be because the offensive line is far too inconsistent.
I’m not convinced that Kadyn Proctor is the preseason All-American/projected top-5 pick that he’s been made out to be, and I have concerns about another spring without full reps. While the return of Parker Brailsford was essential, I’m not sure Alabama is dominating with its interior offensive line, a year removed from failing to rush for 110 yards in 5 of its final 8 games vs. power conference foes.
Elite offensive line play felt like such a constant for Playoff teams in 2024. Those teams had units that could flip that switch and take over a game when needed. I worry that Alabama won’t have that, and there are enough defenses on that schedule that can expose it. Defensive minds like Kirby Smart, Clayton White, Tim Banks, Blake Baker and Brent Venables are all plenty capable of turning that flaw into a difference-maker.
Whether that’s putting too much pressure on a first-year starting quarterback or limiting a ground attack that lacks a proven back who can work through contact — Justice Haynes the Tide’s only back that ranked among the top 30 (!) in the SEC in average yards after first contact (min. 50 carries) and he transferred to Michigan — a subpar year of Alabama offensive line could be disastrous for the type of offense that DeBoer and Grubb have typically run.
Odds that they win a Playoff game
I know that 78.5% will sound high, but remember a few things.
One is that DeBoer’s last loss in a home game was when he was the Fresno State coach in 2021. That’s relevant. In home games as the coach at Washington and Alabama, he’s 21-0 with 4 wins vs. top-15 teams. DeBoer also owns the best winning percentage (.833) vs. AP Top 25 teams among active FBS coaches (min. 15 such games), and he’s 6-1 vs. top-10 teams in his career with his lone loss coming to Michigan in the 2023 title game.
Also, it’s worth remembering that in Year 1 of the expanded Playoff, those home teams went 4-0 with 4 double-digit victories. That’s not to say that it’ll always be that way, but we’re going to need to see that trend change until we don’t put the odds heavily in favor of a home team like Alabama.
Getting to the Playoff could be the exhale that the program needs after squandering that opportunity in Year 1 of the DeBoer era. There’s a chance that a team that still figures to be among the most talented in the sport could become the best version of itself once the postseason begins, just as Ohio State was in 2024. Alabama is no stranger to that.
I’m banking on that type of flashback in Tuscaloosa in 2025.
Predicting the Playoff will continue on Thursday with No. 7 … an SEC power.
Predicting the 2025 Playoff: No. 8 Alabama Saturday Down South.
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