Nuclear crisis to drone war – How Pakistan-India conflict could escalate ...Middle East

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New Delhi claimed to have shot down hundreds of drones fired into Indian territory, and to have responded with strikes against air defence systems in Pakistan.

“Operation Sindoor” came in response to a deadly militant attack against Indian tourists last month that India holds Pakistan responsible for. Islamabad denies involvement.

Part of an aircraft in Wuyan near Indian-administered Kashmir’s main city of Srinagar on 7 May (Photo: Tauseef Mustafa/AFP via Getty Images)

Both sides claim to be exercising restraint, and foreign governments are seeking de-escalation, but analysts fear this outbreak of hostilities between nuclear-armed powers could lead to dangerous scenarios.

India alleges that Pakistan fired more than 300 drones at 36 areas inside its borders overnight, with videos appearing to show attempts to shoot them down over Kashmir.

Wajahat S Khan, a Pakistani-American journalist and security analyst says a “drone war” is under way.

Unmanned devices may be setting the stage for clashes between manned systems by revealing the positions of defence systems.

Drones clashes have highlighted the international dimension of the conflict through the models supplied to each side, with India said to be using Israeli-made Harop drones while Pakistan relies on Turkish systems.

Khan suggests the Pakistani fleet’s performance suggests that while Islamabad does not have “ quantitative symmetry with the Indians, meaning they are outgunned in every way… they seem to have qualitative symmetry.”

Nuclear escalation   

While India has adopted a “no first use” policy, Pakistan has not.

“Either a huge loss to Pakistan of its military, or its civilian population, or some sort of national asset or resource, is when we could see Pakistan use its nuclear option.”

A senior Indian official said there was no ceiling to potential escalation in an interview with The Indian Express.

Syed Mohammed Ali, a security analyst in Islamabad, said both countries’ nuclear capabilities had historically served to limit their conflicts.

Indian policemen stand guard on a road leading to the airport in Amritsar, India, after it was closed (Photo: Prabhjot Gill/AP)

But recent crises have still brought atomic weapons to the fore. The former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo wrote that a 2019 clash that involved India striking militants on Pakistani territory came close to “spilling over into a nuclear conflagration”.

India has paused the 1960 Indus Water Treaty, threatening a water source that Pakistan is highly dependent upon and has described as an “act of war.”

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“No country can be expected to uphold a peacetime treaty while suffering the consequences of an undeclared war,” wrote Brahma Chellaney, professor emeritus of strategic studies at New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research.

India has also shut down commercial ports and airports and increased security around other critical infrastructure sites amid fears of sabotage attacks.

Hacker groups on both sides have claimed unconfirmed successes in targeting the others’ financial installations, and say their attacks are ongoing.

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