With a Champions League final against Barcelona coming up, Arsenal will be keen to end their Women’s Super League campaign on a high note in Saturday’s clash with Manchester United.
As the 2024-25 Women’s Super League draws to a close, many of the major storylines have already been settled.
Chelsea have already been crowned champions, while Crystal Palace will be going straight back down after their maiden season in the top flight.
The UEFA Women’s Champions League places are already settled, too, though the race for second place and the battle for the Golden Boot are going to the wire.
Saturday’s contest between Arsenal and Manchester United sees second take on third, with just a point separating them.
Last time out, United ensured their spot in next season’s Champions League with a 2-2 draw against rivals Manchester City. Despite successive defeats to Aston Villa and Brighton, Arsenal also have European football to look forward to next term.
Though, of course, Renée Slegers’ team are targeting immediate European glory before the month is out, with a showdown against holders Barcelona in the Champions League final coming up on 24 May.
But since their stunning comeback win over Lyon in the semi-finals, the Gunners have not been at their best. It would be understandable, of course, if they did have at least one eye on that final, but losing 5-2 at Villa and 4-2 at Brighton is hardly ideal preparation.
Arsenal have lost as many games in the last eight days as they had in their previous 25 league matches, and will want to get back on track. They have not lost three WSL games in a row since May 2014.
United, though, have a final of their own to prepare for – they will look to dash Chelsea’s hopes of winning a domestic treble in the FA Cup final on 18 May.
So, these teams have more than just pride to play for.
The Race for Second
With the format of the Champions League changing to one that emulates the men’s format next season, there is plenty of value in finishing second in the WSL.
The third-placed side will enter the competition in the second round of qualification, but the team that comes second will enter in the third round – a two-legged play-off.
With that in mind, both Arsenal and United will want to avoid an additional qualifying round to make it into the main league phase.
Ahead of this season, the Opta supercomputer predicted Arsenal would finish third and United were forecasted to place fourth.
Including the Spring Series, Arsenal have won their final WSL game of the season 11 times out of 14 campaigns (D2 L1), but have won just one of their last six WSL games against Man Utd (D3 L2). They did win this fixture last season 3-1, though.
Arsenal have conceded nine goals in their last two WSL games, as many as they had in their previous 13 outings. However, they have won their last seven in a row at home, scoring at least four goals each time.
Only Chelsea (45%) and Man City (43%) have a better win rate against Arsenal in the WSL than United, who have won three of 10 top-flight meetings with the Gunners (30% – D3 L4)
However, the Red Devils have lost their final game of the season in two of the last three campaigns, going down 4-2 to Chelsea 2021-22 and 6-0 in 2023-24, their biggest ever WSL defeat.
The Golden Boot
Alessia Russo has been crucial to Arsenal’s generally superb form under Slegers.
She is tied for top scorer in the WSL with Khadija Shaw on 12 goals, though she has recorded a higher expected goals total (xG) than the Man City striker (9.4 to Shaw’s 8.3). In fact, Russo’s xG is the highest in the league.
The former Manchester United striker averages a goal every 133 minutes, compared to Shaw’s 74, and nobody in the league has had more shots (69) or more on target (33) than Russo, who boasts a 17.4% shot conversion rate this season.
She has also had 15 big chances (third in the league), but has scored more than anyone else (nine).
In a boost for Russo, Shaw is out of action, meaning the Arsenal forward has a clear shot at finishing as this season’s leading scorer in the WSL.
But it has not always been an easy ride this term. Russo did not score in her first four league matches of the season, which came under former Gunners boss Jonas Eidevall.
Under Slegers, a renewed Russo – who was named the Football Writers’ Association Women’s Footballer of the Year on Friday – has netted all of her league goals this season in 16 matches, from chances worth a combined 8.1 xG.
At the other end, there is also an outside contender for the Golden Boot set to lead United’s line. Elisabeth Terland sits fourth in the race with nine goals, behind Shaw, Russo and West Ham’s Shekiera Martinez (10).
The former Brighton striker has accumulated 9.2 xG this season and has had the second-most shots (63) and shots on target (25) in the WSL, as well as having the most big chances (19), netting from four of them.
Terland has registered the joint-most goal involvements in the league this term (14, level with Russo), having also provided five assists.
Though she will need to score at least a hat-trick on Saturday to stand a chance of finishing joint-top scorer, her impact at United this season should not be underestimated.
Whoever scoops this season’s Golden Boot, it will be the lowest goal tally required to do so since 2016 (excluding the Spring Series), when Eni Aluko won it with nine goals. It is also the first time since 2019-20 that the highest scorer has not managed 20+ goals.
Milestones Beckon
Aiming to stop their former star Russo will be United’s outstanding goalkeeper, Phallon Tullis-Joyce.
The American has kept 13 clean sheets this season, and needs just one more to match Mary Earps’ single-season record for a goalkeeper (14, set in 2022-23). Tullis-Joyce will win the Golden Glove award in her first season as United’s first choice, having stepped in to fill the void left by Earps.
There are other records that could be matched and bettered in this match on Saturday, too.
If Maya Le Tissier helps United keep a clean sheet, she will have participated in 14 shutouts in the WSL this season. Only one defender (Demi Stokes, 15 with Man City in 2016-17) has helped keep more clean sheets for a WSL team in a single campaign.
Meanwhile, Beth Mead (48) is closing in on her 50th assist. No player in WSL history has assisted as many goals as the Arsenal forward, who has at least eight more than anyone else.
Russo is also close to a half-century, having scored 46 WSL goals. Reaching 50 in this match would be a big ask, but it will certainly be on her agenda next season.
Arsenal vs Manchester United Prediction
Even though Arsenal have been in poor form results-wise, they have still been creating chances.
Arsenal created chances worth 3.46 xG against Brighton at the Broadfield Stadium on Monday, but only scored twice, shipping four times from 1.68 xG.
The Gunners had 25 shots against the Seagulls, with Russo and Caitlin Foord attempting five each. They were part of a group of four players who managed two shots on target, along with Mariona Caldentey and Frida Maanum.
In contrast, in their Champions League semi-final second leg against Lyon, Arsenal created just 1.2 xG overall despite scoring four goals, displaying a clinical edge that has since been lacking.
United, with the strongest defence in the WSL this season, will therefore present an ideal challenge ahead of Arsenal facing Europe’s best in the form of Barcelona.
The Opta supercomputer is backing Arsenal to get back to winning ways, here.
Arsenal came out on top in 53.5% of the data-led simulations, while the model is predicting the draw has being more likely (23.9%) than a United win (22.6%).
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Arsenal vs Manchester United: Alessia Russo Aiming for WSL Golden Boot in Final-Day Showdown Opta Analyst.
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