The study, led by Michael A. Mische of USC's Marshall School of Business, projects that regular gasoline could cost between $7.35 and $8.43 per gallon — up from the statewide average of $4.82 as of April 23, 2025. While the exact price point depends on market variables, Mische says there is a clear trend: "The models all indicate the same thing — the price of gas is going up."
According to the report, these closures would reduce California's refining capacity by 21% over the next three years, potentially removing 6.6 million to 13.1 million gallons of gasoline per day from the state's fuel supply. California currently consumes over 13.1 million gallons of gasoline daily, while producing less than 24% of its crude oil needs.
California is also losing about 20% of its refinery production, a reduction Mische says is equivalent to over half the total production capacity of the state of Washington.
Mische highlighted points from the study in an interview with CBS13 that create a mix of factors driving up prices: Increasing state excise and sales tax, expanding cap-and-trade program costs, a pending change to the Low Carbon Fuel Standard, declining in-state oil production and refinery capacity, the state's lack of incoming fuel pipelines, and increasing reliance on costly maritime transport.
"Any disruption to maritime transport—geopolitical events, a hurricane in the Gulf, labor disputes—could cause major problems," Mische said. "We're putting ourselves in a vulnerable position."
Other hidden costs include transportation, since gasoline may now need to be shipped in from the Gulf Coast or Asia, as well as storage reserves.
Mische noted that the data used in the study were provided by the State of California through publicly available data, as well as data from the Federal Government, which was also publicly available.
"We layered in a wide array of variables—from refinery capacity and seasonal blends to global spot prices and consumer demand elasticity," he said. "It's not about whether the price hits exactly $8. It's about understanding the trajectory and being prepared."
He told CBS13 this is his way of turning the tables on big oil companies and saving some pain at the pump for his customers.
Governor's office responds
In a statement to CBS13, a spokesperson for the Governor, Daniel Villasenor, noted that in March, Gov. Gavin Newsom directed the state to redouble efforts to work with refiners to ensure a safe, affordable, and reliable supply of gasoline. The statement read:
California Republicans demand action
In a statement, Senate Minority Leader Brian W. Jones (R-San Diego) warned of a looming "energy and economic crisis", citing the same study by Mische.
"We're not just losing gas. We're losing jobs, losing local economies, losing our grip on affordable living in California, and losing a critical layer of our national security," Jones said.
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