After a fantastic Game 1 win, the Denver Nuggets decided that was good enough in OKC, losing by a million to the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 2.
As the series transitions back to Denver, we are about to find out how seriously the Nuggets can match up with the 68-win Thunder. Denver clearly caught them off guard in game 1 and OKC responded in kind. Which result was more indicative for the rest of the series? We will soon find out.
Let’s talk basketball.
Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected Starting Lineups
Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic
Oklahoma City: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein
Key Bench Players
Denver: Russell Westbrook, Peyton Watson, and Julian Strawther played in Game 1. DeAndre Jordan and Jalen Pickett did not play.
Oklahoma City: Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, and Jaylin Williams all played Game 1. Kenrich Williams did not.
Notable Injuries
Denver: DaRon Holmes II – OUT
Oklahoma City: Nikola Topic – OUT
Key for the Nuggets – Hit fast and hit hard
So much of Game 2 was about the Thunder putting the Nuggets on their heels in the first quarter. The Nuggets had opportunities to keep it close, but they didn’t make the shots they needed to make early, and the Thunder acted like a boulder rolling downhill once they got momentum.
Denver cannot allow that momentum to catch this game. Being back at Ball Arena will help, but the Nuggets must be the team to hit first and establish the level of physicality. Denver was clearly overmatched in Game 2. When they bring it in Game 3, will that be enough?
Important Matchup – Jamal Murray vs Lu Dort
According to NBA.com’s admittedly wonky tracking data, Jamal Murray is currently 4-of-12 from the field when being guarded by Lu Dort, including 1-of-6 from three. That isn’t surprising in it of itself, but it has to change in Denver’s favor if the Nuggets are going to bounce back in this series. The Nuggets need Murray to find more scoring, or they simply need him to command so much attention that he creates open shots for teammates. Finding ways to get free from Dort will be important. As the Nuggets found in Game 2, it’s really difficult to screen Dort legally, so Murray will probably have to use some off-ball creativity to free himself up.
Series Adjustment – What can Denver do with SGA?
It’s pretty easy to understand that the Nuggets can’t allow Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to score 34 points on 13 shots like he did in game 2. SGA was unbelievable, generating either good shots for himself or great shots for everyone else when the Nuggets committed too much to him. Finding a way to slow him down in a manageable way without compromising the rest of the defense will be paramount to Denver’s success, not just in Game 3 but for the rest of the series.
Does that mean changing up the matchups? Christian Braun is Denver’s best perimeter defender in the starting lineup, but he hasn’t had a ton of success. Unfortunately for the Nuggets, the rest of the matchups in the starting unit have been way worse with SGA attacking Murray, Gordon, Porter, and Jokic without any issue. Could Denver bring in Russell Westbrook to guard SGA more frequently? What about Peyton Watson? Do the Nuggets simply have to double more and live with the results of others shooting uncontested shots more frequently?
These are tough questions, because SGA is a tough player, and the Nuggets have very few options to try and slow him down.
Number of the Day – 18.3
According to Cleaning the Glass, the Thunder are forcing a turnover on 18.3% of their defensive possessions in the playoffs, by far the most in the NBA. Denver committed 18 turnovers in Game 1 and 20 turnovers in Game 2, right in line with the amount of turnovers the Memphis Grizzlies averaged in the first round as well. The Thunder are excellent at forcing errors, whether it’s jumping passing lanes or drawing offensive fouls. If Denver can find a way to get out of their own way, perhaps they can neutralize one of OKC’s greatest strengths.
Nugget who should have a good game: Christian Braun
Braun scored reasonably well in Game 1 despite going 1-of-4 from three, but the real impact was in his rebounding, playmaking, and disruption (however small) of SGA. In Game 2, he had three points, two rebounds, zero assists, and was a -40 in 26 minutes. Not great!
I think Braun will turn it around in Game 3 though. The energy of being back at Ball Arena along with Braun’s ability to capitalize on the transition game should be enough to put Braun in a position to succeed. The Nuggets need him. The Thunder are daring him to shoot. Braun can answer that call here.
Game 3 Preview: Can Nuggets bounce back vs vaunted OKC Thunder? Mile High Sports.
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