Which team will win the 2024-25 League Two play-offs? We assess all four clubs in contention to win the final place in the third tier of the EFL with the help of Opta supercomputer predictions.
After 552 matches in the League Two regular season, just five games remain in the play-offs to determine which side will join Doncaster Rovers, Port Vale and Bradford City as the promoted sides in League One for 2025-26.
It’s Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon and Chesterfield vs Walsall in the two-legged semi-final ties for a place in the League Two play-off final at Wembley Stadium on 26 May.
But which team will eventually win promotion to League One? Here, we assess the stats and look at the Opta supercomputer predictions for the League Two play-offs.
Walsall were seconds away from automatic promotion, but a goal in the 96th minute for Bradford against Fleetwood Town nudged the Saddlers into fourth place by a single point.
It’ll be particularly galling for Walsall to be facing Chesterfield for a place at Wembley, as they ended 216 days inside the top three of the League Two table compared to just one for Chesterfield.
Mat Sadler’s side only have themselves to blame, though. Following a 4-2 home win over MK Dons on 18 January, Walsall sat top of the League Two table with 58 points from 25 games, giving them a 12-point lead over second-placed Crewe and a gap of 15 points between themselves and fourth place.
Then their form took a damaging nosedive, winning just three of their final 21 matches and collecting only 19 points. One of those three wins came against play-off opponents Chesterfield, though, as they defeated them 3-1 at the Bescot Stadium on 15 February.
A big factor in their downturn from mid-January onwards was the departure of loanee forward Nathan Lowe. Before being recalled by his parent club Stoke City on 12 January, Lowe had scored 15 goals and assisted five more in 22 appearances. Despite not playing in any of their final 22 games of 2024-25, he still ended the regular season as Walsall’s top scorer and the player with the most goal involvements.
They’ll come up against a Chesterfield side who ended the campaign in good form. The Spireites were unbeaten across their final six league games (W3 D3), and they lost just one of their last 13 (W8 D4).
Only play-off opponents Walsall (75) scored more goals in League Two this season than Chesterfield (73), so this could be a high-scoring affair. Twelve of those goals for Chesterfield came from experienced striker Will Grigg, who ended the season scoring in each of their final three league games.
The other semi-final pits one of the best home teams in League Two this season against one of the most impressive away from home.
Only Bradford (55) won more points at home in the regular season than AFC Wimbledon, while Notts County’s 37 points on the road were second only to Doncaster Rovers’ tally of 41.
The first leg of this tie will be played at Notts County’s Meadow Lane stadium, however, and it wasn’t a happy home for Stuart Maynard’s side towards the end of 2024-25. They finished the season by losing each of their final three home games, as many as in their prior 17 outings at Meadow Lane in all competitions (W10 D4).
The Magpies averaged the highest possession figure (62.3%) and the most successful passes per game (445) in League Two this season, but they pass with purpose. Only Doncaster tallied more shots and shots on target than Notts County in 2024-25 (639 shots, 211 on target).
Just 14 different players scored a goal for Notts County in the regular season – no League Two side had fewer goalscorers – but they do have two of the division’s best forwards in the experienced David McGoldrick and 26-year-old Alassana Jatta.
Only Bromley’s Michael Cheek (25) scored more goals than McGoldrick (17) and Jatta (19), but the latter’s form tailed off slightly in the later stages of the campaign. After 16 goals in his first 28 League Two appearances in 2024-25, Jatta scored just three in his final 11, although one of those came in the final-day defeat against Doncaster.
AFC Wimbledon go into the play-offs having kept the joint-most clean sheets (21) in the regular season, conceding 10 goals fewer than any other team (35). In fact, only four sides – those automatically promoted from the Championship (Leeds and Burnley) and League One (Birmingham and Wrexham) – conceded fewer goals per game than Wimbledon (0.76) in England’s top four tiers in 2024-25.
Using only 25 different players in League Two this season, Wimbledon fielded fewer than any other team, but Johnnie Jackson has led the side to their highest points tally (73) in a league season since 2015-16 (75 in League Two), which ended in promotion via the play-offs.
Who Will Win the League Two Play-Offs?
The Opta supercomputer has struggled to pick a clear winner across its 10,000 simulations ahead of the semi-finals, with AFC Wimbledon and Chesterfield the joint favourites to make the final at Wembley on Monday 26 May.
They both won the play-offs and promotion to League One in 26.5% of the simulations, but Walsall (24.2%) and Notts County (22.8%) weren’t too far behind.
AFC Wimbledon are one of only five clubs in history to have a 100% success rate in the EFL play-offs, alongside Aldershot, Crawley Town, Dagenham & Redbridge and Manchester City, but all five clubs have only been involved in one play-off campaign.
Notts County are the most experienced side in the League Two play-offs, having taken part in five previous play-off semi-final ties and progressed to the final on three occasions.
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Who Will Win the 2024-25 League Two Play-Offs? The Opta Supercomputer Predictions Opta Analyst.
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