Can't make a projection now, have to wait until June.
Not at all clear what appropriate monetary policy response would be.
There are cases in which rate cuts would be appropriate this year, and also cases where rate cuts would not be appropriate.
President’s calls for rate cuts don’t affect our job at all.
Until they know more, they can wait and see; everyone on committee supported waiting.
Fed does not yet see big economic effects in the data yet from tariffs; people are worried but the shock has not hit yet.
We do not know yet as there is so much uncertainty over tariffs.
Avoiding persistent inflation will depend on size, timing of tariffs, and inflation expectations.
Watching extremely carefully, does not see much evidence in actual data of slowdown in the economy.
Big spike in imports to beat tariffs should reverse in Q2; likely net exports to have large positive contribution to GDP.
Supply Chains
Consumer Sentiment & Soft Data
Inflation & Price Stability
Last fall, what Fed did, if anything, was a little late, not pre-emptive.
Aim to keep inflation expectations anchored.
Employment & Dual Mandate
Haven’t faced question of two goals in tension in a long time, have to keep it in their thinking for now.
Labor Market & Data Dependency
It is too early to know.
Need to see more data.
No hurry, can be patient.
Financial Conditions & Past Policy
QE wasn’t beyond the confines of our mandate.
My gut tells me that uncertainty is extremely elevated.
Risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen, but not yet in the data.
Policy is moderately restrictive.
Policy is in a very good place.
Based on survey data, businesses and households are very broadly concerned and postponing decisions.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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