Which team will win the Championship play-offs in 2024-25? We assess all four participants in contention to win the final place in next season’s Premier League with the help of Opta supercomputer predictions.
Bristol City vs Sheffield United. Coventry City vs Sunderland. Four teams. Two ties. One aim: to reach the so-called promised land of the Premier League.
As we (neutrals, at least) prepare to enjoy the drama only the EFL play-offs can produce, we run the rule over the contenders to assess who will win the Championship play-offs in 2024-25.
Sheffield United
This season, Sheffield United became just the third side in the history of the second tier to win as many as 90 points yet fail to get automatically promoted, after only Sunderland in 1997-98 and Leeds United last season.
They will have been thoroughly disappointed to have finished outside the top two places this season, though. Only Leeds (156) spent more days inside the automatic promotion spots than Sheffield United (143), with the Blades’ tally 55 days more than also-promoted Burnley.
The major difference is that while Leeds were fantastic in attack – their total of 95 goals scored was the highest in the Championship – and Burnley were astonishingly good in defence, conceding a record-low 16 goals in 46 games, Sheffield United weren’t exceptional at either end of the pitch. They do have one of the Championship’s best goalkeepers in Michael Cooper, however. He prevented the fifth-most goals among goalkeepers with 2,000+ minutes in the competition (6.7) based on Opta’s expected goals on target (xGOT) model.
Their failure to finish inside the top two could prove costly if history repeats itself in 2024-25. Sheffield United have played a part in the Championship play-offs on five previous occasions and never won promotion via them, losing in the final a joint-record three times and in the semi-finals twice more.
The good news for Sheffield United is that the team finishing the regular season in third place has both reached the final (16 times) and won promotion via the play-offs to the Premier League (9 times) more than any other league position since the Championship rebrand in 2004-05.
A lack of an out-and-out goalscorer may hinder Sheffield United in the play-offs this season, with only Tyrese Campbell (10 goals) reaching double figures for them in the league. It wasn’t as if goals were shared around the side too much either, with only Stoke (13) and Leeds (14) seeing fewer players score for them in the Championship this season, excluding own goals.
Gustavo Hamer has been their leading creator with seven assists, while ranking among the top 10 chance creators in open play in the Championship this season (54). Hamer scored the goal that sent Coventry City to the 2022-23 play-off final in a semi-final win over Middlesbrough and found the net in the final against Luton in a match they eventually lost on penalties.
Sunderland
Across the four Championship play-off contenders this season, Sunderland are the team to have played the most games in the Premier League. In fact, their tally of 608 games is 18 more than the other three sides combined (Coventry: 354, Sheffield United: 236, Bristol City: 0).
Sunderland spent the most days inside the top six places of the Championship table this season (266), while 100 of those were spent in the top two automatic promotion spots – 12 more than Burnley (88), who eventually finished second.
For the third successive Championship season, Sunderland have had the youngest average starting XI in the competition (23 years, 316 days old). Their two youngest regulars, 17-year-old Chris Rigg and 19-year-old Jobe Bellingham, have had particularly strong seasons and clearly have bright futures ahead of them.
Their main goal threat in 2024-25 has been forward Wilson Isidor, who scored 12 goals across 43 matches. However, the 24-year-old struggled with his form in the latter stage of the regular season, failing to score in each of his last 13 Championship appearances (776 minutes on the pitch) ““despite attempting 23 shots worth 2.8 expected goals.
Sunderland will be hoping none of their play-off matches go to a penalty shootout. They were given five penalties in the Championship this season but missed a league-high four of them. They’ve also lost both of their play-off games in their history that have gone to penalties – the 2003-04 semi-final versus Crystal Palace and the final against Charlton Athletic back in May 1998.
Many have said form goes out the window when it comes to play-off games, and that’s a statement that Sunderland will hope rings true. Admittedly, they secured a play-off position relatively early, but they still lost each of their final five games of the season in the Championship. No team in EFL history has gone into the play-offs in any tier with such a long run of defeats.
Coventry City
Eyebrows were raised when Coventry sacked long-term manager Mark Robins in November and replaced him with Frank Lampard, but it’s hard to argue now that that was a bad decision.
The Sky Blues were in 17th place when Robins was dismissed after 14 games, but they were level on points with Plymouth Argyle in the relegation zone. However, from Lampard taking over on 28 November, Coventry won 52 points from their 29 games, with only Leeds United (67), Burnley (65) and Sheffield United (55) picking up more in that time.
That record has taken them into the play-offs, as they sealed their place with a 2-0 win over Middlesbrough on the final day, setting up a semi-final against out-of-form Sunderland.
It should be noted that the team’s underlying numbers with Robins still at the club suggested a turnaround was imminent. Despite being 17th at the time, Coventry had the fourth-best xG and the seventh-lowest xG against in the Championship. It took a managerial change to turn those numbers into results, though, and few can question the impressive impact Lampard has had since arriving.
In the time since the former Chelsea and Everton boss took charge, only Leeds (64) and Burnley (48) have scored more than Coventry’s 42 goals, while only the champions (61.9) have a higher xG than the Sky Blues (46.5) in that time.
They will perhaps need to shore up a bit at the back, though. Coventry conceded 58 league goals this season, with only 11 teams allowing more. Their total is the worst of all four play-off participants.
Coventry have spread the goals out that they have scored, with only Haji Wright (12) reaching double figures for goals in the Championship this season. Jack Rudoni has scored the next most, with seven of his nine goals coming since Lampard’s arrival.
They have been particularly dangerous in the air, with their 19 headed goals at least six more than any other team in England’s second tier this season. They also attempted the most headed shots (131), with at least 11 more than any other team.
Rudoni’s five headed goals is the joint-most in the division in 2024-25 along with Burnley’s Zian Flemming. The Coventry midfielder is also a creative spark, with only Josh Murphy and Tom Fellows (both 14) recording more assists than his 12, and only three players creating more than his 78 chances in the Championship in 2024-25.
Coventry have also used just 26 players in the Championship this season, giving them one of the most tightly-knit squads in the division, though the only team to have used fewer players than them are Bristol City (24).
Bristol City
Liam Manning has done a fantastic job at Ashton Gate in his first full season at the club. After a respectable 11th-place finish in 2023-24 after arriving from Oxford United in November 2023, he guided Bristol City to sixth place and their first Championship play-off campaign since 2007-08 under Gary Johnson.
As the only team in this season’s play-offs not to have previously played in the Premier League, Bristol City could be the team that neutrals hope can go all the way.
Manning’s men are there on merit, though it should be pointed out that Bristol City’s 68 points are the lowest to secure a top-six finish in the second tier since Leicester in 2012-13, while the last team to win fewer were Crystal Palace (62) in 1986-87.
As mentioned, the Robins have used the fewest players in the Championship this season, with just 24 players used across their 46 games. Not only is that the fewest players used by a team in the Championship this season, but no team have used fewer in the second tier since Burnley and Leicester City both used only 23 players in the 2013-14 campaign.
Four players have played in all 46 of the Robins’ league matches this season – Max Bird, Zak Vyner, Max O’Leary and Jason Knight – while the latter three have started every single one of them. Only eight players in the Championship have started 46 games this season, and no other club have more than one who has.
Knight has won possession more often than any other player in the Championship this season (293), while Bird has created 75 chances, with only four players in the second tier managing more.
Bristol City haven’t gone ahead and dominated games much, though. In fact, they have spent as much time trailing in games (25%) as they have leading (25%), and they often did their best work when trailing.
They have won 21 points from losing positions in the Championship this season, with only Sheffield Wednesday (24) having recovered more.
The first leg of their semi-final against Sheffield United could be key, with Bristol City having the fourth-best home record in the Championship this season (W13 D7 L3), though perhaps concerningly for them, the Blades are one of the three teams who can better that (W15 D4 L4).
Bristol City like to get their shots off, with only four teams having attempted more than their 596 shots in the Championship this season. They have both scored and conceded from around 9.9% of shots for/against, scoring 59 goals from 596 shots and conceding 55 from 555 shots faced.
Anis Mehmeti (12) and Nahki Wells (10) are the only players at Manning’s disposal who have more than five league goals this season, so others may need to step up and help out.
They don’t arrive in the play-offs in great form, having won just one of their last five and none of their last three, while they haven’t won an away game since a 2-0 victory at Millwall on 4 March, which was also the last time they kept a clean sheet in any game, but if Bristol City can use their home advantage in the first leg, perhaps they won’t need to win at Bramall Lane.
Who Will Win the Championship Play-Offs?
The Opta supercomputer has been hard at work crunching all the data ahead of the play-off semi-finals this week, and it makes Sheffield United the favourites to win promotion back to the Premier League at the first time of asking.
Chris Wilder’s side are given the highest chance of winning these play-offs at 36.0%, which is nearly 11 percentage points higher than the second-most likely team to succeed – Coventry (25.1%).
Bristol City, the only one of the play-off contenders yet to play in the Premier League since its inaugural season in 1992-93, are deemed the outsiders to reach the final at Wembley on Saturday 24 May. They reached the final in just 39.0% of the 10,000 simulations by the supercomputer, below the second-least likely side, Sunderland (45.5%).
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
Who Will Win the Championship Play-Offs in 2024-25? Opta Analyst.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Who Will Win the Championship Play-Offs in 2024-25? )
Also on site :