Avalanche analysis: What went wrong after collapse elicits tough questions for Colorado ...Middle East

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DALLAS — It took 99 days for Chris MacFarland to piece together a historic remodel for a franchise with Stanley Cup aspirations.

It took a little less than 13 minutes for a guy who was part of this team’s core 100 days ago to tear it all down.

There were smashed sticks in the aftermath. There were red eyes. There were thousand-yard stares into the abyss.

The Colorado Avalanche’s season ended Saturday night. The shock, disappointment and pain from this one will linger longer than most. A dream Game 7 for almost 48 minutes became a nightmare.

“They were missing their best ‘D’ and maybe their best forward and we still couldn’t beat them,” Nathan MacKinnon said shortly after calling it the most shocking loss of his career. “Yeah, I don’t know. I don’t know what we’re going to do.”

How did this happen? How will the Avs move forward from this?

Every aspect of this collapse has two sides to it. Any bit of analysis is “this … but also this.” Even when the emotions subside, the cold, logic-based autopsy is not going to be easy. Definitive opinions based on the facts will be disputed. Decisions will be tough to make.

“Hindsight is 20/20, and it’s easy to sit here and say we should have done this, we should have done that, but I thought we deserved better, to be honest with you,” Avs captain Gabe Landeskog said. “It doesn’t matter. It’s not going to change the fact. I thought we played a hard-fought series and carried the play. We just couldn’t find a way. We lose a couple in overtime, and this one is obviously a heartbreaker.”

An obvious place to start is special teams, because the Avs were the better team at 5-on-5 for much of the series. Colorado went 3 for 24 on the power play.

The Avs had a power play at the end of regulation/to start overtime in Games 2 and 3. One was four minutes long. They lost both of those games. That’s what cost the Avs the most in this series, as much as the Game 7 collapse.

But the Avs also had the No. 1 power play in the NHL from the day after they traded Mikko Rantanen until the end of the regular season. And the second goal Saturday night was at 6-on-5, scored by the extra attacker. It doesn’t count as a power-play goal, but spiritually, at least it was.

“I don’t know. Make better adjustments,” MacKinnon said. “We had looks. Not going in. Yeah … bad adjustments.”

Logan O’Connor (25) of the Colorado Avalanche is pursued by Esa Lindell (23) of the Dallas Stars during the second period in Game 7 of their first-round playoff series at American Airlines Center on May 03, 2025 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)

The penalty kill was a big problem. Dallas scored seven times against it. The Stars had three comeback wins in this series, and the game-tying goal in all three was scored on the power play. The series-winning goal … power play.

But the PK also produced two shorthanded goals. And one of the goals against was a fluky own goal after Mackenzie Blackwood lost his stick.

“Special teams were a major factor in all our losses and it’s special teams that were really good during the year, even in the second half,” Avs coach Jared Bednar said. “You’re facing, obviously, a really dangerous power play, which makes it tough and a strong penalty kill, one of the best in the league, too. It’s frustrating because you do a lot of good things for a lot of the game and then you don’t get it done in certain areas, or it can be a different area each night that costs you.”

There was questionable officiating at times in this series, but that complaint cut both ways. The Stars had one more power-play opportunity over seven games. The Avs had the only two four-minute power plays. They didn’t score on either.

Jack Drury was not happy with the penalty that led to the series-winning goal. It was a penalty, but the timing/context will be debated by Avs fans for a long time. That said, if Colorado wins Game 7, Stars fans would be doing the same about the questionable call on Jamie Benn that led to Nathan MacKinnon roaring off the bench and making it a 2-0 lead.

For nearly 48 minutes, Bednar out-coached his nemesis. All of the questions since 2022 were close to disappearing, until they weren’t.

All of the trades looked great on paper when it was 2-0. Blackwood had rebounded from a rough Game 5 and a so-so Game 6. Brock Nelson had a slow start in this series, but played well once Landeskog joined his line. The fourth line, with Drury in the middle, was having another excellent game in an excellent series.

And then Rantanen changed everything. He had four points in the final period, 11 points in the final three games and 12 in the series. He and goaltender Jake Oettinger are the two biggest reasons why Dallas is still playing and Colorado is not.

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The four forwards who were in the Avs’ lineup Saturday night that arrived during the remodel — Drury and Martin Necas in the Rantanen deal, Nelson and Charlie Coyle just before the deadline in March — combined for the same number of points as Rantanen had on his own.

Did the trades work? The team was deeper, more capable of making a deep run. It was still going to be a toss-up first-round series with the Stars, though. And then the worst possible way to lose happened.

Did the Avs wait a game too long to put Landeskog back in the lineup? Should Valeri Nichushkin have been put back on PP1? Why didn’t the Avs punish an awful start in Game 2 by the Stars more? And why did the drop-off in play later in that contest happen?

Everything needs to be examined.

“It just sucks. It really sucks,” Landeskog said. “Just wasn’t ready to stop playing, to be honest. Love this group. Love the team we have. Love the fight we keep showing time and time again. It just wasn’t our night tonight and therefore we’re done.”

How do the Avs find a way back from this? What’s next for this group?

“No idea,” Bednar said. “I’m not even thinking about that yet.”

How the Avs do think about it in the coming days and weeks, and the answers they find to some tough questions, will have lasting short- and long-term ramifications.

An offseason that felt far away early in the third period Saturday night is now here — and it’ll be a big one.

Oskar Back (10) of the Dallas Stars is checked by Gabe Landeskog (92) of the Colorado Avalanche during the first period in Game 7 of their first-round playoff series at American Airlines Center on May 03, 2025 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)

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