Nigel Farage’s right-wing party won the Runcorn and Helsby by-election by just six votes, as well as an emblematic mayoral election in Greater Lincolnshire.
And with the next Senedd and Holyrood elections due in 2026, Farage and his party are poised for further electoral victory.
Anouschka Rajah, research and analysis manager at polling group More in Common, said Thursday’s results will give the party “the confidence to expand their horizons for where they might be able to make gains at the next general election”.
“The results are clear evidence that Reform is not just a ‘protest vote’ that fails to live up to its polling, and is a serious challenge to the traditional two-party system,” said Robert Struthers, research director of BMG Research.
Reform party leader Nigel Farage reacts as the party wins the Runcorn and Helsby by-election (Photo: Phil Noble/Reuters)
Reform is expected to make serious gains in Wales at the Senedd elections in May 2026, potentially becoming the biggest party in the devolved nation.
“Reform might just manage to come first,” he said. “Certainly at the moment they potentially could be quite significant players inside the next Senedd.”
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“Currently, they have no seats in Wales in terms of Westminster parliamentary constituencies, and we predict them to be the largest party there,” she said. “That tells you what you need to know about how they might perform in the Welsh elections as well.”
This would be the party’s first test in a leadership position and a chance to demonstrate what Reform UK in power would look like before the 2029 general election.
Scotland
Reform’s next battle is expected to be Scotland, where some pollsters predict the party could have a tougher time gaining traction.
But there are “strong signs they could make a breakthrough”, he said, with recent polls showing Reform just a few points behind the Conservatives in Scotland, close to supplanting them and taking third place in terms of share of the vote.
“Scotland and Wales use proportional voting systems for devolved elections, which offer challenger parties a much better shot at gaining representation,” he added.
Experts have said that Reform is expected to make “significant gains” in the Red Wall after a clear show of support in traditional Labour heartlands.
“Stronger-than-expected results in parts of the West of England help reinforce that message,” he added.
She said: “The Red Wall term hides exactly how volatile these voters are. It would be a misreading to think that they’ve lent their vote to the Tories and have come home to Labour to stay.
She said yesterday’s election has shown that “the protest hasn’t been answered and people aren’t content with the change they have been delivered so far”.
“I think the North East is an area where Reform is outperforming.”
Coastal towns
“We see a real Reform presence across the East of England,” she said, adding that the party is likely “build out” its support from current constituencies of Clacton, Thurrock and Boston in Essex and Lincolnshire.
Struthers said that the Tories need to be the most worried since Reform is positioning itself as the “main party on the right capable of taking on Labour” – with voters tending to agree.
“That gives them people on the ground – campaigners who can knock on doors, speak to voters, and help establish a lasting presence in communities.
“National polling shows much of Reform’s support comes from former Conservative voters. The Lincolnshire mayoral race is a clear example, held in one of the most pro-Brexit areas of the country.”
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