Look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at the Amex Stadium with our Brighton vs Newcastle prediction and preview. It’s a battle between Seagulls and Magpies as both aim for European qualification.
Brighton vs Newcastle Stats: The Key Insights
Newcastle United are narrow favourites with the Opta supercomputer, as they are given a 41.1% chance of winning. Brighton are unbeaten in the teams’ previous four meetings, winning three (including one in extra time). Alexander Isak has scored the joint-most goals by a Newcastle player in a single Premier League season since 2001-02 this term but has never found the net against Brighton.Newcastle United are probably wondering which version of Brighton & Hove Albion they will face when they arrive at the Amex Stadium on Sunday.
The Seagulls’ best winning streak in the league this season was four games, a run only five clubs (including Newcastle) have bettered. Yet they also went eight matches without a victory at one point, the joint-fifth worst sequence by any side.
Their match against West Ham last weekend encapsulated their season neatly. Brighton took an early lead, then went behind in the 83rd minute but still found time to win 3-2. Fabian Hürzeler’s side have won four league games in which they trailed and have recovered 17 points from losing positions, both of which are club records in the Premier League.
Matches like their victory over the Hammers also help explain why Brighton are the only side other than Tottenham Hotspur to have both scored and conceded at least 55 goals this term (56 for, 55 against). Each of their last 11 matches have seen at least three goals scored, with 45 in total (4.1 per game).
Their recent games against Newcastle have been lower scoring, though. Brighton knocked them out of the FA Cup in March, winning 2-1 at St. James’ Park after extra-time. They also won 1-0 in the north east in the reverse of this fixture in October, and the Seagulls have the opportunity to beat the same club three times in a single season for the first time as a top-flight side.
As much as the recent head-to-head history favours the hosts, Newcastle are in fantastic form. They also have more at stake, with a Champions League spot a very real possibility, though Brighton are still aiming for European qualification themselves.
Assuming the Magpies manage to win one of their remaining four matches, with Chelsea, Arsenal and Everton to come after this, they will record 20 victories in a Premier League campaign for the first time since 2002-03.
Newcastle won 21 under Sir Bobby Robson that season, and Eddie Howe will have designs on at least matching his illustrious predecessor in this regard. Should he do so, the 47-year-old will be the first English manager to record 20 Premier League wins in a season since Frank Lampard did so with Chelsea five years ago.
The Magpies’ form makes these records look eminently achievable. In their last half season since 14 December, Newcastle have won 14 of their 19 league matches, a tally only Liverpool can equal. The recently crowned champions are also the only team to have scored more goals than Newcastle in that period (51-46).
Half of those wins were secured by over two goals. Under Howe, Newcastle have won 27 Premier League matches by a margin of three or more goals, second only to Manchester City (38) during his time in charge.
Alexander Isak has been a huge part of their success. The Swede has scored 22 Premier League goals this season, a figure last bettered by a Newcastle player in 2001-02 (Alan Shearer – 23). Brighton are the only side he’s faced more than once without scoring against, though, with his 15 shots across four appearances going unconverted.
Howe will be glad to have both him and Jacob Murphy available, as the latter has teed up Isak for seven goals this season, the most assists any Premier League player has recorded for a specific teammate in 2024-25.
Joelinton and Lewis Hall will be missing for the visitors, though, as are Jamaal Lascelles and Matt Targett.
For Brighton, the defensive trio of Igor Julio, Jan Paul van Hecke and Adam Webster may return to action here, but Ferdi Kadioglu, James Milner, Georginio Rutter and Jason Steele remain out.
Hürzeler also has top scorer João Pedro suspended, so will be looking to the likes of Kaoru Mitoma to deliver. The Japan international has scored in his last two appearances, going back-to-back for the sixth occasion in the Premier League. If he finds the net for the third successive match in the competition for the first time, Brighton may be able to maintain their impressive record against Newcastle.
Brighton vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
Newcastle are winless in all seven of their away Premier League games against Brighton (D4 L3). It’s the joint most they have visited a single team in the competition without ever winning, having also gone seven matches without enjoying victory at Watford and Wimbledon.
It also means Newcastle are the side Brighton have faced most at home in the Premier League without losing. The Seagulls won this fixture 3-1 last season thanks to an Evan Ferguson hat-trick.
Brighton vs Newcastle Prediction
The 10,000 simulations by the Opta supercomputer saw Newcastle claim the three points 41.1% of the time, but Brighton have slightly better than a one-in-three (34.0%) probability of winning too.
A draw, which was the outcome in three of their previous five meetings on the south coast, is rated as a 24.8% possibility.
Brighton vs Newcastle Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Brighton vs Newcastle Prediction Opta Analyst.
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