A pair of European hopefuls meet in the Premier League at Villa Park. We look ahead to Saturday’s clash with our Aston Villa vs Fulham prediction and preview.
Aston Villa vs Fulham Stats: The Key Insights
Aston Villa overcame Fulham in a dominant 52.0% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer. Ollie Watkins has scored 13 of his 15 Premier League goals to either put Villa ahead (7) or draw them level (6), the highest percentage of any player to score more than 10 this term (87%). Villa boss Unai Emery has won all six of his Premier League meetings with Fulham.Aston Villa will hope to boost their UEFA Champions League hopes when they host fellow European challengers Fulham in Saturday’s early Premier League kick-off.
Unai Emery’s side go into the meeting at Villa Park just three points adrift of fifth-placed Chelsea, who occupy the final Champions League qualification spot, while Fulham are eighth and also bidding for European football next term.
Villa were dumped out of the FA Cup semi-finals by Crystal Palace last Saturday but will be looking to bounce back at Villa Park, which has become a fortress in recent years. They are unbeaten in their last 16 Premier League home games (W9 D7), since losing to Arsenal in their opening game on their own turf this term.
That run marks their second-longest unbeaten home run in the competition, with both coming under manager Emery (also 17 between March and December 2023), and is the primary reason for keeping their top-four hopes alive.
Villa were, however, beaten 2-1 at Manchester City last time out in the competition after Matheus Nunes’ 94th-minute goal, ending a five-match winning run. They’ve only lost consecutive top-flight games once in the last two seasons, doing so in November against Liverpool and Tottenham.
Central to any home optimism may be Ollie Watkins, given the recent news of Marcus Rashford’s hamstring injury that could spell the end of his campaign. Thirteen of Watkins’ 15 Premier League goals this season have either put Villa ahead (7) or drawn them level (6) in the match, the highest percentage of any player to score more than 10 this term (87%).
Another Villa regular, John McGinn, could make his 200th Premier League appearance on Saturday. The midfielder would be the 10th player to reach this milestone for Emery’s side, and the 16th Scotsman to do so in the competition.
In terms of Fulham’s team news, Antonee Robinson will be assessed late after missing their last-gasp 2-1 victory over Southampton on Saturday. Rodrigo Muniz and Reiss Nelson are definite absentees with longer-term issues.
Ryan Sessegnon volleyed home the stoppage-time winner at Southampton, taking him to four goals for the 2024-25 league campaign. Only Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (one every 66 minutes) is averaging a goal or assist more frequently than Sessegnon (69 – 4 goals and 2 assists in 414 minutes), among players to play at least 400 minutes in the Premier League this season.
Andreas Pereira will be another to watch out for. The Brazilian has created more chances from set plays than any other player in the competition this season (37), but no team have scored fewer set-piece goals (excluding penalties) than Fulham’s five this campaign.
Marco Silva’s side are entering into now-or-never territory for their European hopes, along with Brentford, Bournemouth and Brighton, so don’t expect them to turn up to settle for a point at Villa Park.
None of their last 14 Premier League games have been drawn (W7 L7), while their last two victories have come against champions Liverpool (3-2) and bottom side Southampton (2-1).
Aston Villa vs Fulham Head-to-Head
Fulham could struggle here, given they have won just one of their last 20 away league games against Villa (D7 L12), losing the last five in a row since a 2-1 victory in April 2014.
In fact, Villa have won six of their last seven Premier League games against Fulham, including the last four in a row. The exception came in a 3-0 away defeat in October 2022.
Morgan Rogers and Watkins were both on target after Raúl Jiménez’s early opener the last time these two sides met in October, before Issa Diop’s second-half own goal sealed a 3-1 win for Villa at Craven Cottage.
That last win means Emery has won all six of his Premier League games against the Cottagers. There are only four instances of a manager overseeing more games with a 100% win rate against an opponent – Pep Guardiola vs Watford (10/10), Guardiola vs Fulham (9/9), José Mourinho vs Portsmouth (7/7) and Roberto Mancini vs Wigan Athletic (7/7).
Aston Villa vs Fulham Prediction
The Opta supercomputer struggled to see past a home win on Saturday as Villa triumphed in a convincing 52.0% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Fulham hold just a 24.3% chance of victory, while the draw was ranked at 23.7% in the same data-led sims.
Aston Villa vs Fulham Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Aston Villa vs Fulham Prediction Opta Analyst.
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